EMC MODEL FORECAST VERIFICATION STATS - HI-RES WINDOW RUNS

The plots of bias and RMS error (RMSE) statistics are labeled in an abbreviated form. STAT refers to the statistic type, which is either SL1L2 or VL1L2---terms referring to a set of means over the indicated region consisting of forecast and corresponding observed values, their squares and products. When the statistic type is VL1L2, the vector bias and RMSE are computed from a set of such means for the components of the wind. PARAM indicates the parameter: T is temperature; RH is relative humidity, VWND is the horizontal vector wind, and Z is geopotential height. FHOUR indicates the forecast hour. V_ANL indicates the observational data source or verifying anlysis. V_ANL=ADPUPA indicates that the data source is the rawinsonde data. V_ANL=ANYSFC means that surface data from a variety of sources was used for the verification. V_RGN indicates the verification region by an NCEP or AWIPS grid number :

LEVEL denotes the isobaric level of verification or indicates verification at the "surface" (SFC). The verifying hour and minute are denoted by VHHMM. Note that the verifying hour along with the forecast hour determines the cycle time (model initial time) being verified.

The forecast values are interpolated from the grid whose number is indicated following the slash after the model name in the trace label key above each plot. If multiple grid numbers are indicated, then any one of those grids may have been used. The interpolation is a bilinear interpolation to the latitude and longitude of the observation.

Model naming conventions as of 9/11/07 (Cycle time that each model is initialized in parenthesis):

NAM : Operational North American Meso Model (00z,06z,12z,18z; verifications plotted only for NAM runs starting from the same cycle as the respective HIRESW run)

AKNMM : Ops WRF-NMM, Alaska (18z)

EASTNMM : Ops WRF-NMM, east US (00z,12z)

WESTNMM : Ops WRF-NMM, west US (06z)

AKARW : Ops WRF-ARW WRF, Alaska (18z)

EASTARW : Ops WRF-ARW, eastern US (00z,12z)

WESTARW : Ops WRF-ARW, western US (06z)

Changes to the EMC Forecast Verification System are described in the FVS change log

Click here for a display of the areal coverage of each regional HIRESW domain.

Statistics for the last 15 days vs raobs and last 10 days vs sfc data ending yesterday are be displayed as follows:

Tropospheric Statistics

	06-H FCST	12-H FCST	18-H FCST	24-H FCST	30-H FCST	36-H FCST	42-H FCST	48-H FCST
500 mb Height BIAS and RMSE	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z
850 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z
700 mb Relative Humidity BIAS and RMSE	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z
700 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z
500 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z
300 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z
250 mb Vector Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 00Z WEST US VALID 12Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z	ALASKA VALID 12Z WEST US VALID 00Z	EAST US VALID 00Z EAST US VALID 12Z

Surface Statistics

All available surface observations are used for the verification over the regions shown in the map below, plus Hawaii. These verification regions are grouped together for each of these HIRESW domains:

Eastern US Nest : NEC, APL, SEC, GMC, MDW, LMV, NPL, SPL, NMT, SMT, SWD

Western US Nest : NPL, SPL, NMT, SMT, GRB, SWD, NWC, SWC, LMV, GMC

Alaska Nest : NAK, SAK, WCA (not shown on map)

10-m Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE

REGION	06-H	12-H	18-H	24-H	30-H	36-H	42-H	48-H	Loop
Alaska	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Western US	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Eastern US	VALID 06Z VALID 18Z	VALID 12Z VALID 00Z	VALID 18Z VALID 06Z	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	VALID 06Z VALID 18Z	VALID 12Z VALID 00Z	VALID 18Z VALID 06Z	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	00z run 12z run
Hawaii	VALID 06Z VALID 18Z	VALID 12Z VALID 00Z	VALID 18Z VALID 06Z	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	VALID 06Z VALID 18Z	VALID 12Z VALID 00Z	VALID 18Z VALID 06Z	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	00z run 12z run

2-m Temperature BIAS and RMSE

2-m Relative Humidity BIAS and RMSE

2-m Dew Point Temperature BIAS and RMSE