|
|
About Us
Contact Us
Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month
at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the of 30 & 90-day outlooks
for exact release dates.
Text Discussions
More Outlooks
Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
|
| |
|
|
| HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion |
| |
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THU AUG 20 2009
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR SEPTEMBER 2009
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE END OF JULY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 13.34 INCHES (63 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.28 INCHES (74 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.67 INCHES (74 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 75.32 INCHES (105 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR SEPTEMBER 2009. NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR SEPTEMBER 2009.
|
| TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | HILO | A40 | 76.4 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.4 | 8.7 | 9.9 | | KAHULUI | A40 | 79.2 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | | HONOLULU | A40 | 81.4 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | | LIHUE | A40 | 79.4 | 0.3 | | EC | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR SON 2009 TO SON 2010 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN +0.5 TO +1.5 ABOVE-AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. DURING LATE- JUNE THROUGH EARLY AUGUST 2009 - POSITIVE SUB-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXTENDED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE MOST RECENT SUB-SURFACE TEMPERATURE SHOWS POSITIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - WITH THE LARGEST ANOMALIES NEAR 50M DEPTH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NEAR 125M IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED OVER INDONESIA AND ENHANCED ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE NINO-3.4 SST INDEX SUGGEST EL NINO WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF EL NINO. A WEAK-TO-MODERATE STRENGTH EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2009-2010. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES -
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM SON TO OND 2009, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO FMA 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM DJF TO FMA 2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE. |
| HILO | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | SON 2009 | A40 | 75.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 | | OND 2009 | A40 | 74.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 26.1 | 33.1 | 41.3 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.5 | 32.9 | 41.7 | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 72.0 | 0.4 | | B40 | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 71.8 | 0.4 | | B40 | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 72.1 | 0.4 | | B40 | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 28.3 | 34.9 | 42.6 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.0 | 26.8 | 32.2 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 75.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.5 | 24.2 | 29.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.4 | 27.0 | 31.0 | | SON 2010 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 |
| KAHULUI | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | SON 2009 | A40 | 77.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | | OND 2009 | A40 | 75.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 72.5 | 0.5 | | B40 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 72.4 | 0.5 | | B40 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 73.2 | 0.5 | | B40 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 74.4 | 0.6 | | EC | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.3 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 78.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 79.1 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 78.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | | SON 2010 | EC | 77.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| HONOLULU | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | SON 2009 | A40 | 79.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 | | OND 2009 | A40 | 77.3 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 73.5 | 0.4 | | B40 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 73.5 | 0.4 | | B40 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 74.5 | 0.4 | | B40 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 76.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 79.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 80.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 81.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 81.0 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 | | SON 2010 | EC | 79.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 |
| LIHUE | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | SON 2009 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | | OND 2009 | A40 | 75.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16.2 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.8 | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 72.4 | 0.4 | | B40 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 72.4 | 0.4 | | B40 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 73.1 | 0.4 | | B40 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 74.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.4 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 78.8 | 0.3 | | EC | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 79.3 | 0.3 | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | | EC | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | | SON 2010 | EC | 77.7 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU SEP 17, 2009
$$
|
|
|
|
|
www.nws.noaa.gov 
