Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 3.3
Percent in March from February
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BTS 23-09
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
- The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 3.3 percent in March from its February level, falling to its lowest level in more than six
years, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation
Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The March decrease
was the largest monthly drop for any month since March 2000 (Tables 1, 2). For
additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The 3.6 percent
decline in the first three months of 2009 is the second largest in the last
decade, exceeded only by a 4.8 percent decline for the first three months of
2000 (Table 3).
The March level
of the Freight TSI of 101.4 is the lowest since May 2002 when it was 101.1. The
Freight TSI is down 10.4 percent from its historic peak of 113.1 reached in
November 2005.
The freight TSI measures the month-to-month
changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight transportation
industries. The index consists of data
from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.
The
6.4 percent decline from March 2008 to March 2009 was the largest
March-to-March decline in the 20 years for which the TSI is calculated (Table
4).
With the March decrease,
the index is down 7.7 percent in the five years from March 2004, the fourth
consecutive month in which the index declined for a five-year period. The index is down 1.3 percent in 10 years for
the first ever 10-year decline in the 20-year history of TSI data (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally adjusted
index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of
2000. It includes historic data from
1990 to the present. Release of the April index is scheduled for June 10.
BTS has issued
a technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services
Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 1.0 percent
in March from its February level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI March 2009 level of 111.6 was 4.9 percent lower than
the March 2008 level, the first March-to-March decrease since 2002 (Table 7). Despite
the recent declines, the passenger index is up 9.3 percent in five years and 19.1
percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined
freight and passenger TSI fell 2.7 percent in March from its February level (Table
8). The combined TSI March 2009 level of 103.5 was 6.0 percent lower than the March
2008 level, leaving the index at its lowest March level since 2003 (Table 9). The
6.0 percent decline from March to March left the combined index at its lowest March
level since 2003 (Table 9). The combined index is down 3.7 percent in five
years for the second five-year decline in the history of the combined index,
but is up 3.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
1st Quarter Changes
On a
quarterly basis, the Freight TSI fell 3.6 percent in the first quarter, for the
third consecutive quarterly decline and the largest quarterly decline since the
4.8 percent decrease in the first quarter of 2000. The combination of the first
quarter decline with the 2008 declines of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter and
2.5 percent in the third-quarter resulted in the largest decline for any three
consecutive quarters in the 20-year history of the series (Table 10). The Passenger TSI fell 1.2 percent in the
first quarter, the third consecutive quarterly decline. (Table 11). The Combined TSI fell 3.0 percent in the
first quarter, also falling for the third consecutive quarter (Table 12).
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for November (Freight, Passenger and Combined)
were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component
transportation services. The November Freight TSI is 104.4, revised from the 107.6 reported in last month's release. The November
Passenger TSI is 112.5, revised from 114.0.
The November Combined TSI is 106.0, revised from 108.8. The TSI for December, January, February and March are preliminary.
TSI
revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index
numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest
preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised
TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the
comprehensive revision conducted in July 2007 and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since September 2008
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
September |
107.0 |
-1.6 |
116.3 |
-0.4 |
108.9 |
-1.3 |
October |
106.7 |
-0.3 |
114.9 |
-1.2 |
108.3 |
-0.5 |
NovemberR |
104.4 |
-2.1 |
112.5 |
-2.1 |
106.0 |
-2.1 |
DecemberP |
105.1 |
0.7 |
113.0 |
0.5 |
106.7 |
0.7 |
JanuaryP |
102.7 |
-2.3 |
112.6 |
-0.3 |
104.8 |
-1.8 |
FebruaryP |
104.8 |
2.0 |
112.8 |
0.1 |
106.4 |
1.5 |
MarchP |
101.4 |
-3.3 |
111.6 |
-1.0 |
103.5 |
-2.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
2.8 |
(P) -2.3 |
February |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
(P) 2.0 |
March |
0.4 |
1.1 |
-2.9 |
(P) -3.3 |
April |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
|
May |
2.4 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
|
June |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
-0.2 |
|
July |
-0.9 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
|
August |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
-2.3 |
|
September |
0.9 |
-0.9 |
-1.6 |
|
October |
-0.1 |
1.7 |
-0.3 |
|
November |
-1.4 |
0.4 |
(R) -2.1 |
|
December |
0.6 |
-1.7 |
(P) 0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2000-2009
Percent change from December of previous year
December to March
Excel | CSV
2000 |
-4.8 |
4.1 |
-2.1 |
2001 |
1.6 |
-0.5 |
0.9 |
2002 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
2003 |
-1.5 |
-4.0 |
-2.2 |
2004 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
2005 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
2006 |
-0.5 |
2.2 |
0.1 |
2007 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
2008 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
2009P |
-3.6 |
-1.2 |
-3.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
March Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
2000 |
99.9 |
-2.8 |
2001 |
99.4 |
-0.5 |
2002 |
98.8 |
-0.6 |
2003 |
103.1 |
4.3 |
2004 |
109.8 |
6.5 |
2005 |
112.0 |
2.0 |
2006 |
110.7 |
-1.2 |
2007 |
109.8 |
-0.8 |
2008 |
108.3 |
-1.4 |
2009P |
101.4 |
-6.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2009 (March to March)
Excel | CSV
2008 |
1 |
-6.4 |
-4.9 |
-6.0 |
2007 |
2 |
-7.6 |
-2.2 |
-6.3 |
2006 |
3 |
-8.4 |
0.3 |
-6.3 |
2005 |
4 |
-9.5 |
3.0 |
-6.5 |
2004 |
5 |
-7.7 |
9.3 |
-3.7 |
2003 |
6 |
-1.6 |
19.1 |
3.3 |
2002 |
7 |
2.6 |
19.8 |
6.7 |
2001 |
8 |
2.0 |
11.1 |
3.8 |
2000 |
9 |
1.5 |
12.6 |
3.9 |
1999 |
10 |
-1.3 |
19.1 |
3.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to March 2009 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
(P) -0.3 |
February |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
-0.5 |
(P) 0.1 |
March |
1.0 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
(P) -1.0 |
April |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
|
May |
0.6 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
|
June |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
|
July |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
|
August |
0.0 |
1.1 |
-1.3 |
|
September |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.4 |
|
October |
0.4 |
0.7 |
-1.2 |
|
November |
-0.2 |
-1.5 |
(R) -2.1 |
|
December |
1.1 |
0.7 |
(P) 0.5 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
March Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
2000 |
99.2 |
5.8 |
2001 |
100.4 |
1.3 |
2002 |
93.1 |
-7.3 |
2003 |
93.7 |
0.7 |
2004 |
102.1 |
8.9 |
2005 |
108.3 |
6.1 |
2006 |
111.3 |
2.7 |
2007 |
114.2 |
2.6 |
2008 |
117.4 |
2.8 |
2009P |
111.6 |
-4.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
2.1 |
(P) -1.8 |
February |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
(P) 1.5 |
March |
0.6 |
1.4 |
-2.0 |
(P) -2.7 |
April |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
|
May |
2.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
June |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
|
July |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
|
August |
-1.9 |
0.7 |
-2.0 |
|
September |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
-1.3 |
|
October |
0.1 |
1.4 |
-0.5 |
|
November |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
(R) -2.1 |
|
December |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
(P) 0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
March Combined TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
2000 |
99.7 |
-0.2 |
2001 |
99.7 |
0.1 |
2002 |
97.1 |
-2.7 |
2003 |
100.2 |
3.3 |
2004 |
107.5 |
7.2 |
2005 |
110.8 |
3.1 |
2006 |
110.5 |
-0.2 |
2007 |
110.5 |
0.0 |
2008 |
110.1 |
-0.4 |
2009P |
103.5 |
-6.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation
Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10: Freight
Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2000-2009
Percent change from
the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
2000 |
-4.8 |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
-0.9 |
2001 |
1.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
2002 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2003 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
3.5 |
2004 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
2005 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
2006 |
-0.5 |
1.8 |
-2.5 |
-0.9 |
2007 |
0.8 |
-1.3 |
-0.4 |
0.4 |
2008 |
-0.1 |
1.4 |
-2.5 |
(P)
-1.7 |
2009 |
(P)
-3.6 |
|
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11:
Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2000-2009
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
2000 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
-1.6 |
2001 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-21.0 |
15.2 |
2002 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
4.1 |
2003 |
-4.0 |
-0.2 |
5.0 |
2.3 |
2004 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
2005 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
-2.1 |
2006 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2007 |
0.0 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
-0.1 |
2008 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
-1.6 |
(P)
-2.9 |
2009 |
(P)
-1.2 |
|
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12:
Combined Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2000-2009
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
2000 |
-2.1 |
0.5 |
-0.2 |
-1.2 |
2001 |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
-7.4 |
3.9 |
2002 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
2.6 |
2003 |
-2.2 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
2004 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
-0.1 |
1.0 |
2005 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
2006 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
-1.6 |
-0.4 |
2007 |
0.6 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
2008 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
-2.3 |
(P)
-2.0 |
2009 |
(P)
-3.0 |
|
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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