Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 2.3
Percent in December from November
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BTS 7-09
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, February 11, 2009
- The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 2.3 percent in December from its November level, falling for the second consecutive month, the
U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported
today (Table 1).
The December decline,
the fourth monthly decrease in five months, dropped the freight index to a loss
of 3.0 percent for 2008. The index was
up 2.7 percent for the first seven months of the year but declined 5.5 percent
in the final five months, the largest five-month decline since the period
ending April 2000 (Tables 2, 3).
The 2008
decline of 3.0 percent was the third consecutive annual decline and the largest
since 2000 (Table 3).
At 105.1 in December,
the freight TSI is at its lowest level since September 2003 when it was 104.4
and is down 7.1 percent from its historic peak of 113.1 reached in November
2005. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
The
2.3 percent decline from November to December dropped the freight index to its
lowest year-end level since 2002 (Table 4).
As a result of
the 2.3 percent decline in December, the freight index dropped 2.7 percent in the
five years from December 2003, the first such five-year decrease since January
1990, the starting date of the index. The index is still up 5.3 percent in 10
years (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally
adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year
of 2000. It includes historic data from
1990 to the present. Release of the January index is scheduled for March
11.
BTS has issued
a technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services
Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 0.9 percent
in December from its November level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI December 2008 level of 113.0 was 3.6 percent lower
than the December 2007 level, the first annual decrease since 2001 (Table 3). The
3.6 percent annual decline dropped the passenger index to its lowest year-end
level since 2005 (Table 7). Despite the decline for the year, the passenger
index is up 12.5 percent in five years and 20.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined
freight and passenger TSI fell 1.9 percent in December from its November level
(Table 8). The combined TSI December 2008 level of 106.7 was 3.1 percent lower
than the December 2007 level and marked the first annual decrease since 2006
(Table 3). This annual decline dropped the combined index to its lowest
year-end level since 2003 (Table 9). However, the combined index is up 0.9
percent in five years and 9.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
4th Quarter Changes
On a
quarterly basis, the Freight TSI fell 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the
largest quarterly decline since 4.8 percent decrease in the first quarter of
2000. However, the 2.6 percent fourth
quarter decline following a 1.6 percent third-quarter drop resulted in the
largest decline of any two consecutive quarters in the last 10 years (Table
10). The Passenger TSI fell 1.7 percent
in the fourth quarter following a 2.8 percent third-quarter decline that was
the largest in the last five years (Table 11). The Combined TSI fell 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, falling for the
second consecutive quarter (Table 12).
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for August (Freight, Passenger and Combined)
were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component
transportation services. The August Freight TSI is 108.7, revised from the 110.8 reported in last month’s release (December). The August
Passenger TSI is unchanged at 116.8. The August Combined TSI is 110.3, revised
from 111.9. The TSI for September, October,
November and December are preliminary.
TSI
revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months’ index
numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest
preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised
TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the
comprehensive revision conducted in July 2007 and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since June 2008
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
June |
109.8 |
-0.2 |
118.3 |
-0.1 |
111.5 |
-0.1 |
July |
111.3 |
1.4 |
118.3 |
0.0 |
112.6 |
1.0 |
AugustR |
108.7 |
-2.3 |
116.8 |
-1.3 |
110.3 |
-2.0 |
SeptemberP |
108.0 |
-0.7 |
114.9 |
-1.6 |
109.4 |
-0.9 |
OctoberP |
109.1 |
1.0 |
114.3 |
-0.6 |
110.1 |
0.6 |
NovemberP |
107.6 |
-1.4 |
114.0 |
-0.2 |
108.8 |
-1.1 |
DecemberP |
105.1 |
-2.3 |
113.0 |
-0.9 |
106.7 |
-1.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
2.8 |
February |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
March |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
-2.9 |
April |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
May |
0.0 |
2.4 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
June |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
-0.2 |
July |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
August |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
(R) -2.3 |
September |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
-0.9 |
(P) -0.7 |
October |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
1.7 |
(P) 1.0 |
November |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
0.4 |
(P) -1.4 |
December |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
-1.7 |
(P) -2.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 1999-2008
Percent change from December of previous year
December to December
Excel | CSV
1999 |
5.1 |
1.9 |
4.1 |
2000 |
-6.8 |
6.0 |
-2.9 |
2001 |
-0.6 |
-9.6 |
-3.4 |
2002 |
7.5 |
7.0 |
7.4 |
2003 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
2004 |
2.7 |
5.9 |
3.6 |
2005 |
0.2 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
2006 |
-2.2 |
4.9 |
-0.5 |
2007 |
-0.5 |
2.7 |
0.3 |
2008P |
-3.0 |
-3.6 |
-3.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the December
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
105.0 |
5.1 |
2000 |
97.9 |
-6.8 |
2001 |
97.3 |
-0.6 |
2002 |
104.6 |
7.5 |
2003 |
108.1 |
3.3 |
2004 |
111.0 |
2.7 |
2005 |
111.3 |
0.2 |
2006 |
108.9 |
-2.2 |
2007 |
108.4 |
-0.5 |
2008P |
105.1 |
-3.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2008 (December to December)
Excel | CSV
2007 |
1 |
-3.0 |
-3.6 |
-3.1 |
2006 |
2 |
-3.4 |
-1.1 |
-2.8 |
2005 |
3 |
-5.5 |
3.8 |
-3.3 |
2004 |
4 |
-5.3 |
6.2 |
-2.5 |
2003 |
5 |
-2.7 |
12.5 |
0.9 |
2002 |
6 |
0.5 |
15.7 |
4.1 |
2001 |
7 |
8.1 |
23.8 |
11.8 |
2000 |
8 |
7.5 |
11.9 |
8.0 |
1999 |
9 |
0.1 |
18.6 |
4.8 |
1998 |
10 |
5.3 |
20.8 |
9.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to December 2008 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
February |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
-0.5 |
March |
0.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
April |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
May |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
June |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
July |
0.1 |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
August |
0.2 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
(R) -1.3 |
September |
1.4 |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.6 |
October |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
(P) -0.6 |
November |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
-1.5 |
(P) -0.2 |
December |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
(P) -0.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the December
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
95.3 |
1.9 |
2000 |
101.0 |
6.0 |
2001 |
91.3 |
-9.6 |
2002 |
97.6 |
7.0 |
2003 |
100.5 |
2.9 |
2004 |
106.4 |
5.9 |
2005 |
108.8 |
2.3 |
2006 |
114.2 |
4.9 |
2007 |
117.3 |
2.7 |
2008P |
113.0 |
-3.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
2.1 |
February |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
March |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
-2.0 |
April |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
May |
0.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
June |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
July |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
August |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
0.7 |
(R) -2.0 |
September |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
(P) -0.9 |
October |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
(P) 0.6 |
November |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.1 |
December |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
(P) -1.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the December
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
101.9 |
4.1 |
2000 |
98.9 |
-2.9 |
2001 |
95.4 |
-3.4 |
2002 |
102.5 |
7.4 |
2003 |
105.8 |
3.2 |
2004 |
109.5 |
3.6 |
2005 |
110.4 |
0.8 |
2006 |
109.8 |
-0.5 |
2007 |
110.2 |
0.3 |
2008P |
106.7 |
-3.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10: Freight
Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change from
the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1999 |
2.9 |
-0.4 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
2000 |
-4.8 |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
-0.9 |
2001 |
1.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
2002 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2003 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
3.5 |
2004 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
2005 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
2006 |
-0.5 |
1.8 |
-2.5 |
-0.9 |
2007 |
0.8 |
-1.3 |
-0.4 |
0.4 |
2008 |
-0.1 |
1.4 |
(P)
-1.6 |
(P)
-2.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11:
Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1999 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
-1.9 |
2000 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
-1.6 |
2001 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-21.0 |
15.2 |
2002 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
4.1 |
2003 |
-4.0 |
-0.2 |
5.0 |
2.3 |
2004 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
2005 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
-2.1 |
2006 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2007 |
0.0 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
-0.1 |
2008 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
(P)
-2.8 |
(P)
-1.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12:
Combined Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1999 |
2.0 |
-0.2 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
2000 |
-2.1 |
0.5 |
-0.2 |
-1.2 |
2001 |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
-7.4 |
3.9 |
2002 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
2.6 |
2003 |
-2.2 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
2004 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
-0.1 |
1.0 |
2005 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
2006 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
-1.6 |
-0.4 |
2007 |
0.6 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
2008 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
(P)
-1.9 |
(P)
-2.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic
Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists
of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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