Air Quality Forecast Model

Ground Level Ozone and Particulate Matter – forecast conditions from the Environment Canada CHRONOS mathematical model

The air quality in a given geographical area is strongly influenced by the meteorological conditions and emissions of various pollutants or their precursors (link to definition of precursor in glossary), in and around the area of interest. Precursor emissions a significant distance away from a given region can still affect air quality in that region. The MSC uses a chemical transport model called CHRONOS (Canadian Regional and Hemispheric Ozone and NO_x System) to make real-time predictions of air quality over Canada for the next few days. The accompanying animations show the model-simulated fields of ground-level ozone, an important indicator of air quality. Maps of Particulate Matter (PM) showing the levels of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ will also be available in the near future.

CHRONOS forecasts the ground level ozone concentration at 10, 50 and 500 metres height.

Maximum tropospheric ozone at 10 metres over a 6-hour interval

Air Quality Forecast Model
Region	Run	Forecasts
Eastern Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
Western Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
North America	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation

Maximum tropospheric ozone at 50 metres over a 6-hour interval

Air Quality Forecast Model
Region	Run	Forecasts
Eastern Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
Western Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
North America	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation

Maximum tropospheric ozone at 500 metres over a 6-hour interval

Air Quality Forecast Model
Region	Run	Forecasts
Eastern Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
Western Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
North America	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation

PM2.5 at 10 metres - mean over 6-hour interval

Air Quality Forecast Model
Region	Run	Forecasts
Eastern Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
Western Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
North America	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation

PM10 at 10 metres - mean over 6-hour interval

Air Quality Forecast Model
Region	Run	Forecasts
Eastern Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
Western Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
North America	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation

4-panel maps (PM2.5, PM10, O3 at 10 metres, O3 at 500 metres)

Air Quality Forecast Model
Region	Run	Forecasts
Eastern Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
Western Canada	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation
North America	00Z	006	012	018	024	030	036	042	048	hr	Animation