Time Series Analyses of Physical Environmental Data Records from
Auke Bay, Alaska

Abstract

Physical environmental data from Auke Bay, Alaska, collected by staff of the National Marine Fisheries Service’s Auke Bay Laboratory (ABL) during 1959-2004 near Auke Bay, Alaska, are summarized in tabular and graphic formats. Data for the 1959-1993 period were summarized in 1998 by ABL scientists Bruce L. Wing and Jerome J. Pella. This report updates the records and analyses through December 2004. Data include air temperatures, precipitation (rainfall and melted snowfall), water temperature for Auke Creek, annual dates of freeze-up and ice-out for Auke Lake, and Auke Bay sea surface temperature. Statistical time series methods, including spectral analysis for the underlying cycles and univariate modeling for temporal dependence, were used to describe the monthly records for precipitation, snowfall, average daily high, low, and midrange air temperatures, and sea surface temperature.

Significant trends observed were an increase of average daily high, daily low and daily mid-range air temperatures, a decrease in annual snowfall, an increase of average daily sea surface temperatures, and an increase in Auke Creek stream temperature. The observed trends of an increase in total precipitation and decrease in duration of ice cover on Auke Lake associated with earlier dates of ice-out on Auke Lake were not significant.


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