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INTERNET ADDRESS:http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Wednesday, July 15, 2009
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JUNE 2009
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.9 percent in June before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last
12 months the index has fallen 1.4 percent, as a 25.5 percent decline in
the energy index has more than offset increases of 2.1 percent in the food
index and 1.7 percent in the index for all items less food and energy.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.7 percent in
June after rising 0.1 percent in May. The acceleration was largely caused
by the gasoline index, which rose 17.3 percent in June and accounted for
over 80 percent of the increase in the all items index. The index for
energy rose 7.4 percent in June, with a decline in the electricity index
partly offsetting the sharp increase in gasoline. The food index, which
had fallen each of the last four months, was unchanged in June.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June
following a 0.1 percent increase in May. Most components of all items
less food and energy posted increases; the indexes for shelter and medical
care rose slightly, while the indexes for new vehicles, used cars and
trucks, recreation, and apparel all increased at least 0.5 percent. The
index for airline fares did decline in June, falling 0.6 percent.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
Seasonally adjusted
Expenditure Compound
Category Changes from preceding month annual Un-
rate adjusted
3-mos. 12-mos.
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June ended ended
2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 June 2009 June 2009
All items.......... -.8 .3 .4 -.1 .0 .1 .7 3.3 -1.4
Food and beverages .1 .1 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.2 .1 -1.3 2.2
Housing........... .0 .0 .0 -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 -.6 .1
Apparel........... -.6 .3 1.3 -.2 -.2 -.2 .7 1.5 1.5
Transportation.... -5.0 1.3 1.9 -1.1 -.4 .8 4.2 19.9 -13.2
Medical care...... .3 .4 .3 .2 .4 .3 .2 3.6 3.2
Recreation........ -.2 .0 .4 .0 -.4 .0 .5 .3 1.5
Education and
communication.. .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 2.9 3.0
Other goods and
services....... .0 .3 .2 2.7 2.6 -.2 .3 10.9 7.1
Special indexes:
Energy............ -9.3 1.7 3.3 -3.0 -2.4 .2 7.4 22.1 -25.5
Food.............. .0 .1 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.2 .0 -1.5 2.1
All items less
food and energy .0 .2 .2 .2 .3 .1 .2 2.4 1.7
The food and beverages index turned up in June, rising 0.1 percent
after declining 0.2 percent in May. The food away from home index rose
0.1 percent and the index for alcoholic beverages increased 0.2 percent.
The food at home index, which had declined six months in a row, was
unchanged in June. Among major grocery store food groups, the fruits and
vegetables index had the largest increase, rising 1.1 percent after
declining 1.0 percent in May. This was mostly offset by another decline
in the index for dairy and related products, which fell 0.9 percent, its
seventh consecutive decrease. The other groups within food at home were
relatively stable this month; the indexes for cereals and bakery products
and other food at home were unchanged, while the index for meats, poultry,
fish and eggs declined 0.2 percent and the nonalcoholic beverages index
rose 0.1 percent. Over the last year, the food at home index has risen
0.8 percent.
After declining in each of the three previous months, the housing
index was unchanged in June. The index for shelter rose 0.1 percent for
the second straight month, as did the indexes of two of its major
components, rent and owners' equivalent rent. Also within shelter, the
index for lodging away from home rose 0.3 percent in June but has fallen
6.9 percent over the last year. The household energy index continued its
decline, falling 1.0 percent, its eleventh consecutive monthly decrease.
The June decrease was driven by the electricity index, which fell 1.9
percent in June after a 0.4 percent decrease in May. The index for
natural gas rose in June, increasing 1.3 percent after falling in each of
the ten previous months. The index for household furnishings and
operations was unchanged in June for the third month in a row. Over the
past year, the housing index has risen 0.1 percent, with the shelter index
rising 1.3 percent and the index for household energy declining 10.8
percent.
The index for transportation rose 4.2 percent in June after a 0.8
percent increase in May. The motor fuel index advanced 17.2 percent in
June, accounting for about 95 percent of the increase in the
transportation group. The indexes for new vehicles rose 0.7 percent in
June after a 0.5 percent increase in May, and the index for used cars and
trucks increased 0.9 percent in June following a 1.0 percent increase in
May. However, the index for public transportation continued to decline,
falling 0.5 percent as the index for airline fares fell 0.6 percent. Over
the last year, the transportation index has declined 13.2 percent with the
motor fuel index down 35.2 percent. The public transportation index has
decreased 12.1 percent over this period and the index for used cars and
trucks has declined 8.6 percent. In contrast to these declines, the new
vehicles index has risen 0.9 percent over the last year.
Among other CPI groups, the indexes for medical care and for
education and communication both rose 0.2 percent in June after increasing
0.3 percent in May. The index for apparel turned up in June, rising 0.7
percent after declining 0.2 percent in each of the previous three months.
The index for recreation rose 0.5 percent in June, the largest one month
increase in the index since April 2001. Increases in the indexes for
admissions and for cable and satellite television and radio contributed to
the rise. The index for other goods and services rose 0.3 percent in
June, with the tobacco and smoking products index increasing 0.8 percent
and the personal care index rising 0.1 percent.
Year-to-date change
The CPI-U all items index advanced at a seasonally adjusted
annualized rate (SAAR) of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2009 after
increasing at a 2.2 percent rate in the first quarter. This brings the
year-to-date SAAR to 2.7 percent and compares with a 0.1 percent increase
in all of 2008. The index for energy, which fell 21.3 percent during
2008, rose at a 14.8 percent SAAR in the first six months of 2009. Energy
commodities increased at a 52.1 percent rate in the first half of the
year, while energy services declined at a 13.6 percent rate. The index
for food declined at a 1.1 percent SAAR in the first six months of 2009
after rising 5.9 percent in all of 2008. The food at home index declined
at a 3.8 percent rate during the first half of 2009 after rising 6.6
percent in 2008.
The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a 2.4 percent SAAR in
the second quarter of 2009 after rising at a 2.2 percent rate in the first
quarter. The increase at a 2.3 percent annual rate over the first six
months of 2009 compares to a 1.8 percent increase in 2008. Acceleration
in the indexes for new vehicles, tobacco, apparel, and medical care all
contributed to the larger rate of increase, while slower rates of increase
in the indexes for shelter and recreation and a downturn in the public
transportation index mitigated the rise. The annual rates for selected
groups for the last seven-and-one-half years are shown below.
Percentage change 12 months SAAR 6
ended in December mos.
ended
June
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
All items........... 2.4 1.9 3.3 3.4 2.5 4.1 0.1 2.7
Food and beverages 1.5 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 4.8 5.8 -1.0
Housing............ 2.4 2.2 3.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.4 -.6
Apparel............ -1.8 -2.1 -.2 -1.1 .9 -.3 -1.0 3.3
Transportation..... 3.8 .3 6.5 4.8 1.6 8.3 -13.3 14.2
Medical care....... 5.0 3.7 4.2 4.3 3.6 5.2 2.6 3.8
Recreation......... 1.1 1.1 .7 1.1 1.0 .8 1.8 1.0
Education and
communication..... 2.2 1.6 1.5 2.4 2.3 3.0 3.6 2.9
Other goods and
services.......... 3.3 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.4 12.2
Special indexes:
Energy............. 10.7 6.9 16.6 17.1 2.9 17.4 -21.3 14.8
Energy commodities 23.7 6.9 26.7 16.7 6.1 29.4 -40.5 52.1
Energy services... .4 6.9 6.8 17.6 -.6 3.4 7.7 -13.6
All items less
energy............ 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.4 1.7
Food.............. 1.5 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 4.9 5.9 -1.1
All items less food
and energy........ 1.9 1.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.4 1.8 2.3
CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers (CPI-W) rose 1.1 percent in June, prior to seasonal adjustment.
The index value of 210.972 was 2.0 percent lower than in June 2008. On a
seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-W rose 0.9 percent in June.
Table B. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
Seasonally adjusted
Expenditure Compound
Category Changes from preceding month annual Un-
rate adjusted
3-mos. 12-mos.
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June ended ended
2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 June 2009 June 2009
All items.......... -1.0 .3 .4 -.1 .0 .1 .9 4.2 -2.0
Food and beverages .1 .0 -.2 -.1 -.2 -.2 .0 -1.4 2.1
Housing........... .0 .0 .1 -.1 -.1 .0 -.1 -.9 .3
Apparel........... -.6 .6 1.0 -.3 -.3 .0 .7 1.6 1.6
Transportation.... -5.6 1.5 2.0 -1.3 -.5 .9 4.8 22.9 -14.9
Medical care...... .3 .4 .4 .2 .4 .3 .2 3.8 3.3
Recreation........ -.1 .0 .4 .0 -.3 .0 .4 .4 1.4
Education and
communication.. .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .1 2.2 2.6
Other goods and
services....... .1 .4 .2 3.9 3.8 -.2 .3 16.6 10.2
Special indexes:
Energy............ -9.7 1.9 3.6 -3.1 -2.4 .4 8.1 25.8 -25.9
Food.............. .1 .0 -.2 -.1 -.2 -.3 .0 -1.6 2.1
All items less
food and energy .0 .2 .2 .2 .3 .2 .2 2.9 1.9
Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
increased 0.9 percent in June on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The
index has decreased 1.3 percent over the past year. Please note that the
indexes for the post-2007 period are subject to revision.
Upcoming release
Consumer Price Index data for July are scheduled for release on
Friday, August 14, 2009, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory
impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal
Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1)
the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers
households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise
approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-
U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and
include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups
such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-
employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not
in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about
50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-
department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations.
Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in
the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and
CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences
in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change
in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are
issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U
and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in
preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For
the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The
reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.
An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown
as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the
price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has
risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
Section on (202) 691-7000.
Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error
because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete
universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-
month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors
annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to
construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the
estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.04 percent for
the U.S. All Items Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly
sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology,
and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these
estimates would be within 0.08 percent of the 1 month percentage change
based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2
percent in the All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent
confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would
fall between 0.12 and 0.28 percent. For the latest data, including
information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see "Variance
Estimates for Price Changes in the Consumer Price Index, January-December
2008". These data are available on the CPI home page
(http://www.bls.gov/cpi), or by using the following link
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2008.pdf
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually
expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because
index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to
its
base period while percent changes are not. The example below illustrates
the computation of index point and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as
annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for
compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change would
be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.
Index Point Change
CPI
202.416
Less previous index
201.800
Equals index point change
.616
Percent Change
Index point difference
.616
Divided by the previous index
201.800
Equals
0.003
Results multiplied by one hundred
0.003x100
Equals percent change
0.3
Regions Defined
The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed below.
The Northeast--Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York,
New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
The Midwest--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
The South--Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,
Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia.
The West--Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,
Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by different
groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as
well as unadjusted changes each month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally
adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of
changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same
magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing
climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and
sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned
about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used
extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract
agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the
Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes
are derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. Seasonally
adjusted indexes and seasonal factors are computed annually. Each year,
the last 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised. Data from
January 2004 through December 2008 were replaced in January 2009.
Exceptions to the usual revision schedule were: the updated seasonal data
at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977; and, in January
2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for January 1987-
December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation weights for
dependently adjusted series. For further information, please see
"Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series," in the
October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report.
The seasonal movement of all items and 54 other aggregations is
derived by combining the seasonal movement of 73 selected components.
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon
certain statistical criteria. If any of the 73 components change their
seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally
adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of
the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted
indexes will be used before that period. Note: 47 of the 73 components
are seasonally adjusted for 2009.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the all items index levels, are
subject to revision for up to five years after their original release.
For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in escalation
agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment
procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI
series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better
estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp
movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and
removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning
with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA software was
used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment.
For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2009, BLS adjusted 29
series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected
food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity and vehicles. For
example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset the
effects of events such as damage to oil refineries from Hurricane Katrina.
For a complete list of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
series and explanations, please refer to the article "Intervention
Analysis Seasonal Adjustment", located on our website at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisapage.htm.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please
write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and
Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact Jeff Wilson at (202) 691-
6968, or by e-mail at Wilson.Jeff@bls.gov. If you have general questions
about the CPI, please call our information staff at (202) 691-7000.
.
