Major Quake Likely
to Strike San Francisco Bay Region Between 2003 and 2032
On the basis of research conducted since the 1989 Loma Prieta
earthquake, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists
conclude that there is a 62% probability of at least one magnitude
6.7 or greater quake, capable of causing widespread damage, striking
the San Francisco Bay region before 2032. Major quakes may occur
in any part of this rapidly growing region. This emphasizes the
urgency for all communities in the Bay region to continue preparing
for earthquakes.
Fact
Sheet (printer
friendly PDF version)
Is
a Powerful Quake Likely to Strike in the Next 30 Years?
Full
Technical Report
Earthquake Probabilities
in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2003-2032.
Summary
of Findings (printer friendly
PDF version)
Earthquake
Planning Scenario ShakeMaps
Maps displaying estimated intensities and ground motions
for "Earthquake
Scenarios" - events on faults that have ruptured in the
past or have a likelihood of rupturing in the future. Files
of ground motion ready for input in FEMA's publicly available
loss estimation software HAZUS can be found under the "Download" tab.
Estimated Earthquake Losses for the Bay Region
The USGS, the California Office of Emergency Services, the California Geological
Survey, and the Association of Bay Area Governments jointly conducted a loss
estimation study focused on the ten most likely damaging earthquakes forecast
for the Bay Region by the Working Group.
Bay
Area Earthquake Probabilities Webcast
USGS Scientist, Dr. David Schwartz, discussed the new probability
study at UC Berkeley on Tuesday April 22, 2003 [1hr, 10 min RealPlayer required].
Probability
Study Graphics for Media Use
This page gives you access to the original graphics
files used to produce the USGS Report on the new San
Francisco Bay
Region Earthquake Probability Study.
How to Prepare for Earthquakes |
