Home Library Synthesis and Assessment Products Product 1.3 Final Prospectus |
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Lead Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Supporting Agencies:
1. Overview: Description of Topic, Audience, Intended Use,
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Step |
Expected Completion Date |
Prospectus |
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Drafting |
June 2005 |
CCSP Review |
December 2005 |
Public Comment |
January 2006 |
Revised Draft |
September 2006 |
Clearance |
November 2006 |
Stakeholder Interactions |
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Reanalysis Workshop |
September 2005 |
AGU Session |
December 2006 |
AMS Special Session |
January 2007 |
Drafting |
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Initial Draft |
June 2007 |
Final Draft |
February 2008 |
Review |
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NRC Review |
December 2007 |
Public Comment |
December 2007 |
CCSP Review |
March 2008 |
NSTC Clearance |
May 2008 |
Communications |
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Communications Plan |
May 2008 |
Hardcopy Production |
June 2008 |
Web Production |
June 2008 |
Dissemination |
July 2008 |
AGU |
American Geophysical Union |
CCSP |
Climate Change Science Program |
DAO |
Data Assimilation Office (NASA) |
DOE |
Department of Energy |
ECPC |
Experimental Climate Prediction Center |
ENSO |
El Niño–Southern Oscillation |
ERA-40 |
40-year European Reanalysis |
GMAO |
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA) |
NASA |
National Aeronautics and Space Administration |
NAO |
North Atlantic Oscillation |
NCAR |
National Center for Atmospheric Research |
NCEP |
National Centers for Environmental Prediction |
NCO |
NOAA Climate Office |
NOAA |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
NSTC | National Science and Technology Council |
Dr. Arkin is Deputy Director and Senior Research Scientist at the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) of the University of Maryland. He helps to administer ESSIC and conducts research into the observation and analysis of precipitation and other aspects of the hydrological cycle of the global climate system. Until January 2002, he served as Program Manager for Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction in the Office of Global Programs at NOAA, where he managed the Applied Research Centers that provide the research and development that enable NOAA to provide better climate forecasts. From 1998-2000, he served as the Deputy Director of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia University. He has spent the last 25 years working at NOAA as a research scientist and administrator in various parts of the climate community, including the Climate Prediction Center, the Office of Global Programs and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. He invented the GOES Precipitation Index, a method for estimating rainfall from geostationary satellite observations, and led the Global Precipitation Climatology Project from 1985-1994. His B.S. in mathematics and M.S. and Ph.D. in meteorology are from the University of Maryland. Dr. Arkin has published more than 50 refereed papers in scientific journals, 22 atlases and chapters in books, and has had more than 100 non-refereed publications. He has served as a member of many national and international scientific panels, and has presented invited papers at more than 100 workshops and scientific meetings.
Professor Carton is director of the graduate program and Associate Chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science at University of Maryland. His research includes the ocean's role in tropical climate variability on seasonal to decadal timescales. He received an undergraduate degree in Electrical Engineering from Princeton, an MS in Oceanography from University of Washington, and MA and PhD degrees from Princeton's program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, graduating in 1983. He was a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard until 1985 when he joined the faculty at University of Maryland. Professor Carton's research has had two major foci in the past decade. The first is to understand the sources of climate variability in the tropical Atlantic sector. The countries of the tropical Atlantic are subject to floods and droughts with substantial interannual and decadal variability. Evidence suggests that part, perhaps much of the memory in this system reflects the ocean's ability to store and redistribute heat. Work on this subject is summarized in a book last year, "Earth's Climate: the Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions", co-edited by Professor Carton. The second focus is his SODA effort to develop reanalyses of ocean circulation to complement the atmospheric reanalyses. Professor Carton has an active teaching program that has produced 9 PhDs and 22 Masters Degrees. Professor Carton is also active in international science, currently serving on the steering committees of the Community Climate System Science effort, the JASON altimeter and US CLIVAR.
Professor Hegerl is an Associate Professor in the Earth and Ocean Sciences Division at Duke University. Her primary areas of research are the detection and attribution of climate variations and change due to natural and anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing (such as greenhouse warming, climate effects of volcanic eruptions and changes in solar radiation). Dr. Hegerl is also an expert in the application of statistical techniques for climate research. Dr. Hegerl serves as a coordinating lead author for the chapter on “Detection and Attribution” for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, as well as on committees for the National Research Council and US CLIVAR.
Dr. Hoerling is a research meteorologist in the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory located in Boulder, Colorado. His research interests include climate variability on seasonal to centennial time scales, focusing on air-sea interactions such as related to El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and the role of oceans in decadal climate variation and climate change. He received his Bachelors, Masters, and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, graduating in 1987. He is principal investigator on several research projects to understand the causes and origins for seasonal to centennial global climate variations, including North Atlantic climate change since 1950 (CLIVAR-ATL), and the factors controlling low frequency North Pacific-North American climate variations (CLIVAR-Pacific). He is also active in research on seasonal climate predictability and predictions, working in collaboration with operational prediction centers at the National Centers for Climate Prediction, Lamont-Doherty's International Research Institute, and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). Dr. Hoerling has led a NOAA-funded program to explore and develop regional climate services. He has served as project manager for the climate component of NOAA's Regional Integrated Science Assessment on Water, Climate and Society in the Interior Western United States that is studying the region's sensitivity and responses to climate variations, and the need for climate information by regional decision makers. Dr. Hoerling has served as Editor for the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate.
Professor Kalnay became a Distinguished University Professor at the University of Maryland in 2002 after chairing the Department of Meteorology for 3 years. Previously she was the Lowry Professor at the University of Oklahoma (1999-2000), Director of the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (1987-1996), and a member and later Head of the 911 Branch at NASA/Goddard that later became the GMAO (1979-1986). While she was director of EMC many improvements of the numerical models and methods of data assimilation were developed and implemented, including the widely used NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis. She has written about 100 peer reviewed papers, and published a book, Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability (2003), which is on its third printing. She has received several gold medals from NASA and NOAA, the Charney Award from the AMS, and was elected member of the National Academy of Engineering in 1995.
Professor Karoly is Williams Chair Professor of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. He joined the University of Oklahoma in January 2003 from Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, where he was Professor of Meteorology and Head of the School of Mathematical Sciences. He was Director of the Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology at Monash University from 1995-2000. He is active in research into the dynamics of the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere and its variability on time scales from days to decades. Specific research interests include climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion and interannual climate variations due to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. He is a member of a number of international and national committees, including the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices, the Council of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), and the UCAR University Relations Committee. He was Coordinating Lead Author of the chapter “Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes” in the third scientific assessment of climate change prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He is a Lead Author for the chapter “Assessment of Observed Changes and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems” in the IPCC Fourth Assessment report to be published in 2007. In 1993, Professor Karoly received the Meisinger Award from the AMS, with citation “for contributions to the understanding of the role of Rossby wave propagation in atmospheric teleconnections and to greenhouse climate change research.” In 1999, he was elected a Fellow of the AMS for outstanding contributions to the atmospheric sciences over a substantial period of years. He is currently a member of the NRC’s Climate Research Committee.
Dr. Koster joined NASA/GSFC in 1987 upon receiving his Sc.D. from M.I.T. His early work focused on the analysis of global water isotope geochemistry. Most of his professional career, though, has focused on the development of improved treatments of land surface physics for atmospheric general circulation models and on the analysis of interactions between the land and atmosphere using these models. With the advent of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office in 2003, Koster was given the responsibility of coordinating the many disparate land surface modeling activities at GSFC. He has authored or co-authored over 70 refereed papers, and he currently serves on panels or subpanels for WCRP, CLIVAR, and GEWEX. He has served for the last several years as a lecturer for the climate program at George Mason University.
Dr. Arun Kumar received his PhD in Meteorology from Florida State University in 1990. Since October 2002, he has been the Deputy Director of Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Dr Kumar’s research interests include analysis of climate variability and predictability, attribution of the causes for climate variability, analysis of climate models, and seasonal climate predictions. His research collaborators include scientists from the Climate Diagnostics Center, International Research Institute, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and University of Washington, among others. He has published more than 50 research papers in peer-reviewed journals. He currently holds the position of Secretary for the Atmospheric Physics & Climate section of the American Geophysical Union. He has been a member of the science advisory boards of several research groups and has participated in several review panels.
Dr. Roger S. Pulwarty is a research scientist for the NOAA Climate Program Office, and is leading a Climate Project Office in Boulder, CO to develop a “National Integrated Drought Information System”. Dr. Pulwarty received his Ph.D. in 1994 from the University of Colorado. His research expertise is on the design of effective services to address weather and climate-related risks. Dr. Pulwarty's publications have focused on (1) hydroclimatic variability and change, 2) assessing social vulnerability and capacity to respond to climatic variations and weather extremes, and (3) the use of research-based information in natural resources policy and decision-making in the Western U.S., Latin America, and the Caribbean. From 1998 to 2002, Dr. Pulwarty led the development of the NOAA/Office of Global Programs/Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program. In addition to federal agencies and the National Research Council, Dr. Pulwarty has acted in advisory capacities to the Organization of American States (Sustainable Development Unit), the World Bank, the governments of Venezuela, Fiji, CARICOM (the Caribbean Economic Community) countries, and the Western Governors Association. Dr. Pulwarty chairs the American Meteorological Society's Board on Societal Impacts, is Deputy Director of the Western Water Assessment Project, and directs the vulnerability assessment component of the World Bank/GEF funded multi-country project on Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate in the Caribbean. He is a lead author on chapters in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group 2 and in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Dr. Pulwarty is also a member of the U.S. Inter-Agency Water Sciences Committee and the North American Regional Reanalysis Advisory Group.
Dr. David Rind is a staff scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences in New York, NY. Dr. Rind’s expertise is in the application of observations and theory together with advanced climate models to ascertain causes of past changes and implications for future changes. Dr. Rind’s work encompasses time scales ranging from paleoclimate variations to present climate and projections of future changes. Recent studies by Dr. Rind and colleagues include a review of water vapor feedbacks in climate models, examination of the roles of tropospheric and stratospheric changes on large-scale modes of climate variability like the Artic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, relative influences of solar and anthropogenic forcing, and impacts of sea ice on climate.
Dr. Siegfried D. Schubert received his Ph. D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1983. His research interests include climate variability and predictability, droughts, hydrological cycle, extreme events, and reanalysis. Dr. Schubert has authored or co-authored 60 papers in peer reviewed journals. He is currently the head of the Sub-Seasonal-to-Decadal group at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. He organized and directed NASA’s first reanalysis projects. He has served on the science working group of the North American Monsoon Experiment, and has been a member of international APEC Climate Network (APCN) working group. He has served as an Editor for the Journal of Climate.
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