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Numbers in the text and tables of this report may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in Chapter 5 are calendar years, and all years in other chapters and the appendixes are fiscal years. The figures in Chapter 5 indicate periods of recession by using shaded vertical bars. The bars extend from the peak to the trough of the recession. Unemployment rates throughout the report are calculated on the basis of the civilian labor force. |
This analysis of the President's budget for fiscal year 2000 was prepared at the request of the Senate Committee on Appropriations. It was produced by the staffs of the Budget Analysis, Macroeconomic Analysis, and Tax Analysis divisions under the supervision of Paul Van de Water, Robert Dennis, and Thomas Woodward. Authors contributing to this volume include Linda Bilheimer, Thomas Bradley, Kent Christensen, Paul Cullinan, Jeff Holland, James Horney, Richard Kasten, Marjorie Miller, Michael Miller, John Peterson, Paul Van de Water, and Jennifer Winkler. James Horney coordinated the effort. The estimates of the President's revenue proposals were prepared by the Joint Committee on Taxation. The principal contributors to the revenue and spending estimates and analyses are listed in Appendix C.
Major portions were edited by Leah Mazade,
Sherry Snyder, Christian Spoor, and Liz Williams. The authors owe thanks
to Marion Curry, Linda Harris, Dorothy Kornegay, and Wanda Sivak, who assisted
in producing sections of the report. Kathryn Quattrone prepared the report
for publication, and Laurie Brown prepared the electronic versions for
CBO's World Wide Web site, both assisted by Martina Wojak-Piotrow.
Dan L. Crippen
Director
April 1999
ONE - THE PRESIDENT'S BASIC POLICY PROPOSALS
TWO - THE PRESIDENT'S FRAMEWORK FOR SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM
THREE - MEDICARE PROJECTIONS AND THE PRESIDENT'S MEDICARE PROPOSALS
FOUR - THE PRESIDENT'S PROPOSALS FOR NATIONAL DEFENSE
FIVE - COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC FORECASTS
APPENDIXES
A - CBO Baseline Budget Projections
B - Outlay Estimates for National Defense
C - Major Contributors to the Revenue and Spending Projections
| TABLES | |
| S-1. | CBO Estimate of the Effect on the Surplus of the President's Budgetary Policies |
| S-2. | CBO Estimate of Debt Held by the Public and Corporate Stock Held by Social Security Under the President's Budgetary Policies Including the Social Security Framework |
| 1-1. | Comparison of CBO's Baseline with Its Estimate of the President's Budget Excluding the Social Security Framework |
| 1-2. | CBO Reestimate of the President's Budget Excluding the Social Security Framework |
| 1-3. | CBO Estimate of the President's Discretionary Spending Proposals for Fiscal Year 2000 Compared with Various Benchmarks |
| 1-4. | Discretionary Caps and Proposed Spending for Fiscal Year 2000 |
| 1-5. | CBO Estimate of the President's Discretionary Spending Proposals, by Budget Function |
| 1-6. | CBO Estimate of the Effect on Outlays of the President's Spending Proposals Excluding the Social Security Framework |
| 1-7. | CBO Estimate of the President's Revenue Proposals Excluding the Social Security Framework |
| 1-8. | CBO Reestimate of the President's Budgetary Policies Excluding the Social Security Framework |
| 1-9. | Estimate of the President's Discretionary Spending Proposals for Grant Programs, by Budget Function |
| 2-1. | Estimate of the Effect on the Surplus of the President's Social Security Framework |
| 2-2. | Social Security Trust Fund Projections |
| 2-3. | CBO Reestimate of the President's Budget Including the Social Security Framework |
| 3-1. | Medicare Outlays |
| 3-2. | Outlays for Medicare Benefits, by Sector |
| 3-3. | CBO Estimate of the President's Policies to Expand Medicare Coverage |
| 3-4. | CBO Estimate of Medicare-Related Provisions in the President's Budget |
| 3-5. | Medicare Outgo and Income in the CBO March 1999 Baseline |
| 3-6. | CBO Reestimate of Medicare Outgo and Income in the President's Budget |
| 4-1. | Major Funding Changes Proposed in the President's Budget for National Defense Relative to the 1999 Budget Request and the CBO Baseline |
| 5-1. | Comparison of Economic Projections for Calendar Years 1999-2004 |
| 5-2. | Comparison of Short-Term Economic Forecasts for Calendar Years 1999 and 2000 |
| A-1. | CBO Projections of Expenditures for Entitlement Programs Assuming Programs Continue |
| A-2. | Changes in CBO Projections of Baseline Surplus Since January 1999 |
| A-3. | The Budget Outlook Under Current Policies |
| A-4. | CBO Baseline Budget Projections Assuming Compliance with the Discretionary Spending Caps |
| A-5. | CBO Baseline Projections of Discretionary Outlays Assuming Compliance with the Spending Caps |
| A-6. | CBO Baseline Projections of Mandatory Spending |
| A-7. | Alternative Amounts of Discretionary Spending for Fiscal Year 2000 Compared with the Spending Caps |
| A-8. | CBO Baseline Projections of Interest Costs and Federal Debt |
| B-1. | Comparison of Actual and CBO's Estimated Outlays for National Defense Appropriations, Fiscal Years 1993-1998 |
| B-2. | Differences Between CBO's and OMB's Estimates of Outlays from the Administration's Budget Requests for National Defense Discretionary Programs, Fiscal Years 1993-2000 |
| B-3. | Accuracy of CBO's and OMB's Estimates of National Defense Discretionary Outlays |
| B-4. | Sources of Differences Between CBO's and OMB's Estimates of National Defense Discretionary Outlays for Fiscal Year 2000 |
| FIGURES | |
| S-1. | Debt Held by the Public |
| 5-1. | Productivity |
| 5-2. | Wages and Salaries Plus Corporate Before-Tax Profits |
| BOXES | |
| 1-1. | Offsets to Discretionary Spending in Fiscal Year 2000 Proposed in the President's Budget |
| 1-2. | Student Loan Reserves |
| 3-1. | Relationship of Fee-for-Service and Medicare+Choice Payments |
| 4-1. | Emergency Appropriations for Defense Programs for Fiscal Year 1999 |
