Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System: A Forecasting and Visualization Prototype for Em Mgt. In Coastal-Bay Esturary sys.

Objectives

The USGS, as a CBOS member, has partnered with NOAA (NWS, MARFC, and Chesapeake Bay Program offices), academia (VIMS, UMCES, and ODU), industry (WeatherFlow), and nonprofit (Noblis and CRC) CBOS members to develop the Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS). CIPS is to be a prototype forecast tool to predict the combined effects of storm surge and tidal and river flow inundation in the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries with prediction uncertainty estimates. The CIPS prototype is to be delivered to NOAA NWS local Weather Forecast Offices (Wakefield and Sterling, VA, and Mt. Holly, NJ) to better support flood forecasts to emergency responders and managers, first in the CB region and then replicated for similar approaches in other coastal and Great Lakes regions. CIPS is a CBOS initiative within the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (MACOORA) of the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). Applications being developed with CIPS also are expected to have broader capabilities to assess the efficacy of plans for mitigation structures, projected sea-level rise and, possibly, expected inundation from tsunamis.

The USGS will provide the following flood validation data for CIPS:

a) Non-tidal, verified, stream-gage flow data from selected CB tributaries for three recent historical events (Hurricane Isabel, Tropical Storm Ernesto, and a November 24th Nor'Easter), and real-time and verified data for any future similar events that occur during the project (2008-2010),

b) Verified overland flood-level data in two selected urban areas--Alexandria, VA, and Annapolis, MD-for selected forecast flood events from either Nor'easters or Tropical Cyclones during the course of the project (2008-2010), and

c) In the event that the NOAA NWS issues a Warning for the CB for a major Tropical Cyclone (Category Three Hurricane or greater), the USGS National Storm Surge Team, Reston, VA, with the assistance of the local USGS Science Centers, will provide verified overland flood-level data from sensors distributed throughout the CB.

In all cases, the USGS data will be delivered to the CIPS team to aid in the validation of the CIPS forecast or hind cast and determination of forecast uncertainty.

The participation of the USGS in CIPS development is consistent with its national Hazard initiative, and its participation in IOOS. The USGS is authorized to perform this collaborative work and prosecute this project in cooperation with other CIPS agencies, Federal, State or private, pursuant of 43 USC 36c.

Statement of Problem

Recent Hurricanes Katrina and Isabel not only demonstrated immense destructive power, but also revealed the obvious, crucial need for improved storm surge forecasting and information delivery to save lives and property in future storms. Current operational methods and storm surge and inundation products do not adequately meet requirements needed by emergency managers (EMs). Improved accuracy of forecasts depends critically on small differences in the relative positions of the storm track and the Bay's axis that challenge current forecast models, particularly for semi-enclosed bays and estuaries. These complex coastal features can either protect large population centers or render them vulnerable to trap and amplify storm surges, as was the case in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) with Hurricane Isabel in 2003.

Strategy and Approach

The local USGS Science Centers will provide historical event data to CIPS partners in FY2008. They also will design and implement a rapid water-level sensor deployment plan in the City of Alexandria, VA by April 2008, and implement a similar plan in the City of Annapolis MD by April 2009. Under either plan, upon the NWS WFOs issuing a Warning for major flooding in either City, the USGS will deploy about a dozen water-level sensors at predetermined locations in each City within 24 hours of the projected time of flooding. Sensors will be retrieved as soon as possible after flooding, and the resultant quality-controlled flood elevation data delivered to the respective City and CIPS partners within one month of sensor retrieval. The USGS National Storm Team will be ready to deploy similar overland sensors throughout the CB tidal zone upon issuance of a Tropical Cyclone Warning (Hurricane Category 3 or greater) by June, 2008.

From a broader perspective, CIPS will be built as a prototype model to improve the accuracy, reliability, and capability of flooding forecasts for tropical cyclones and non-tropical wind systems such as nor'easters. Creating CIPS requires an innovative, two-fold approach.

First, the technique of ensemble forecasting will be expanded in the atmospheric domain and translated to the hydrodynamic and hydrologic domains. To expand the atmospheric ensemble, the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) will partner with Weatherflow, Inc. to produce parallel, high-resolution atmospheric forecasts for the CB region on an operational schedule. To extend the ensemble to hydrodynamics, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) will partner with the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) to refine and combine their already successful models with the incorporation of stochastic hydrologic flow to produce highresolution, operational forecasting in the entire CB region. The primary benefits are improved accuracies and the production of quantitative estimates of forecast uncertainties.

Second, CIPS development will exploit a successful prototype visualization, validation, and information-delivery system for EMs, a technology developed, validated, and evaluated by a team of government, academic and industry Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS) partners. Part of this system is the new and innovative rapid deployment system of inundation sensors that will be distributed immediately before storms to obtain direct measurements of inundation water levels by the US Geological Survey (USGS). Noblis will work with WFOs and EMs to address their requirements and deliver the visual inundation information at city-block resolution at a variety of CB sites. CBOS (ODU), UMCES-CBL, and Noblis will conduct a dynamic outreach program with EMs to integrate and assess the value including economic, of CIPS, not only for the immediate storm response by EMs, but also for their advance planning and decision-making during recovery.

CIPS ultimately is being designed as an end-to-end system that defines users' needs, integrates the subsystems for observation, forecasting, visualization, validation, data and product development, and communicates high-resolution products through WFOs to EMs, and then to a broad spectrum of users, including the general public.