Chesapeake Bay Program - Synthesis and Forecasting

Objectives

The objective of this project is to provide the framework to synthesize findings from, and have an integrated study approach between, the major USGS Chesapeake Bay projects to help decision makers adapt more effective approaches for ecosystem assessment, conservation and restoration. The USGS prepared the Chesapeake Bay Science Plan, (Phillips, 2005) and is conducting a project to meet each of the science themes in the plan:

• Impact of human activities on land use
• Factors affecting water quality and quantity
• Ability of habitat to support fish and bird populations.
• Synthesis and coordination of science to improve ecosystem assessment, conservation, and restoration.

Statement of Problem

The Chesapeake Bay Program (Chesapeake Bay Program) and Department of Interior (DOI) partners need integrated scientific information for more effective approaches to implement, evaluate, and revise policy and management actions to restore the Nation's largest estuary. The need for integrated science and a more coordinated restoration approach was emphasized by the GAO report (2005) that recommended the Chesapeake Bay Program (1) complete efforts to implement an integrated assessment approach, (2) revise its reporting approach to improve the effectiveness and credibility of its reports, and (3) develop a comprehensive, coordinated implementation strategy that takes into account available resources. The need for integrated science for ecosystem management also exists because of the large number of Chesapeake Bay Program partners and entities involved in research, monitoring, and formulating and implementing policy and management decisions. The Chesapeake Bay Program partners include Federal agencies (over 25 agencies and 3 from DOI), State agencies (agencies from 6 States and the District of Columbia), local governments, academic institutions, and non-governmental organizations (NGO's). The Federal agencies, under the Federal Agencies Resolution for Cooperative Conservation of the Bay Ecosystem, are working to improve coordination for an ecosystem-based approach to better target actions to improve water quality, habitat, and fisheries. Science and restoration approaches for the Chesapeake Bay also have critical relevance for the conservation and restoration of ecosystems throughout the United States. There is a need to improve the synthesis of scientific findings to provide more integrated understanding of the ecosystem so resource managers can have an "adaptive management" approach to implement, evaluate, and revise policy and management actions to restore the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem and apply the findings to other ecosystems.

Strategy and Approach

The strategy to provide integrated science is to address synthesis topics, and have an integrated study, among the projects that are addressing the USGS Chesapeake Bay science themes:

• Impact of human activities on land use
• Factors affecting water quality and quantity
• Ability of habitat to support fish and bird populations.
• Synthesis, application, and dissemination of science to improve ecosystem assessment, conservation, and restoration.

The USGS has established an Integrated Coordination and Synthesis Team (ICST) that consists of project and task leaders from the USGS Chesapeake Bay projects to collectively plan, coordinate, and synthesize USGS activities and science. The ICST will have the responsibility to: (1) finalize the synthesis topics, (2) develop and implement an integrated study design to address the synthesis topics, and (3) lead preparation of the synthesis topics and associated applications. The project addressing "Synthesis and Forecasting of Science to Improve Ecosystem Assessment, Conservation, and Restoration" will provide a framework for the ICST and related projects to address the synthesis topics and has more discussion of the approach. The four synthesis topics are:

• Spatial distribution of processes affecting the fate and transport of nutrients and sediment in the Bay watershed.
• Assessment and forecasting of changes in human activities and water-quality in the Bay watershed.
• Factors affecting the habitats and health of fish populations in the watershed.
• Decision-support tools to enhance ecosystem assessment, conservation and restoration.

The general timelines for the USGS synthesis project are provided below and more specific information is provided next project section on tasks. In 2007, the USGS will focus on synthesizing current knowledge and develop conceptual diagrams of the factors affecting water quality and habitat conditions to support fish and bird populations in the different environmental settings. The primary outcomes of the 2007 synthesis will be:

• Summarize of the current scientific knowledge developed by other partners related to USGS projects and synthesis topics.
• Develop conceptual diagrams of the major processes to be addressed.
• Conduct an inventory of existing regional data and local-scale studies that can be used to address the projects and synthesis topics.
• Prepare an integrated study plan that specifies the analysis of existing data, data collection, and study sites in 2008- 2010.
• Provide initial implications for more effective targeting of management actions.

During 2008-2010 existing data will be analyzed and field data will be collected to continuously improve the initial understanding and conceptual diagrams of the influence of different factors affecting water quality and habitat to support fish and bird populations. The improved scientific understanding would be used to better define the spatial and temporal distribution of the factors that can used to improve applications to target management actions and evaluate ecosystem change. All the findings and implications would be summarized in a synthesis report that would be prepared in 2011.