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FROM THE OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS June 24, 1998RR-2555 Mr. Chairman, and distinguished members of the committee, it is an honor to
be here today to
discuss Treasury debt management. With the Clinton Administration's policy of fiscal discipline,
and its fostering of a strong U.S. economy, we are experiencing our first budget surplus since
1969. The Administration welcomes the challenge of managing a surplus rather than financing
a deficit. Our discussion of debt management will begin with the goals and principles that guide
Treasury in this important endeavor. After outlining our changing financing needs, I will review
the adjustments to Treasury debt management announced this May. I will then discuss the
inflation-indexed program and a number of other innovations in debt management that have been
implemented during the Clinton Administration. Finally, I will say a few words about the
measures that we are taking to prepare our critical securities-related systems for the Year 2000.
1. Goals and Principles Treasury debt management has three main goals (Exhibit A): In achieving these goals, five interrelated principles guide us (Exhibit B). The first principle is maintaining the "risk-free" status of Treasury securities. This is
accomplished through prudent fiscal discipline and timely increases in the debt limit. Ready
market access at the lowest cost to the Government is an essential component of debt
management.
Second, is maintaining consistency and predictability in our financing program. Treasury
issues securities on a regular schedule with set auction procedures. This reduces uncertainty in
the market and helps minimize our overall cost of borrowing. In keeping with this principle,
Treasury does not seek to time markets; that is, we do not act opportunistically to issue debt
when
market conditions appear favorable. Third, Treasury is committed to ensuring market liquidity. The U.S. capital markets are
the largest and most efficient in the world. Treasury securities are the principal hedging
instruments used by investors across the markets. Liquidity promotes both efficient capital
markets and lower Treasury borrowing costs. Fourth, Treasury finances across the yield curve, appealing to the broadest range of
investors. A balanced maturity structure also mitigates refunding risks. In addition, providing
a pricing mechanism for interest rates across the yield curve further promotes efficient capital
markets. Fifth, Treasury employs unitary financing. We aggregate all of the Government's
financing needs and borrow as one nation. Thus, all programs of the Federal Government can
benefit from Treasury's low borrowing rate. Otherwise, separate programs with smaller, less
liquid issues, would compete with one another in the market. Paul Volcker, then Under
Secretary
of the Treasury, proposed to promote the concept of unitary financing by establishing the
Federal
Financing Bank. He brought that idea before this Committee 27 years ago. The Administration
continues to vigorously endorse this principle. 2. Changing Financing Needs As we experience the first budget surplus in almost 30 years, we are responding to
dramatic changes in our financing needs. Exhibit
C shows the components of outstanding
Federal
debt. Privately held debt totals just under $3.4 trillion. Baseline estimates made just prior to the
Clinton Administration projected that today's level of privately held debt would be greater by
roughly $1.1 trillion, or approximately 32 percent. This remarkable accomplishment has
benefitted all Americans through a higher national savings rate and lower interest rates. Exhibit D shows how the components of
our financing needs have changed over the last
several years. Unified budget deficits, which historically drove our net borrowing needs,
decreased dramatically and finally became a surplus. Net Federal lending activities that are not
included in the unified budget have added to our financing needs. (This is largely represented by
the direct student loan program.) Another significant change is that we have been filling an increasing share of our financing
needs by issuing nonmarketable securities. Upon the redesign two years ago of the
nonmarketable
securities issued to state and local governments ("SLGS"), we have seen a sharp increase in this
type of financing. This year, we anticipate more than $50 billion in net SLGS issuance. All of these factors lead to an anticipated $79 billion pay down in marketable debt this
fiscal year. This compares to $169 billion in net market borrowing just three years ago.
Treasury
will still be the largest issuer in the market, however, as we need to raise the monies to pay off
our maturing securities. This year, $510 billion of our longer term debt, known as "coupon"
securities, will mature. In addition, there are $450 billion in Treasury bills outstanding which
need to be refinanced on average several times a year. Treasury bills are our shortest term
offerings, with maturities of less than one year. 3. May Announcements To achieve the goals and to promote the principles that I described above, Treasury has a
variety of financing tools at its disposal. These include issue sizes, offering schedules,
instruments
offered, auction rules and possible debt repurchases. In May of this year, we used several of these financing tools to address the exciting
challenge brought on by the new environment of budget surpluses. First, we discontinued
issuance
of 3-year notes. Second, we reduced the frequency of new issues of 5-year notes, shifting to a
schedule of quarterly issuances instead of monthly issuances. I will discuss in some detail the
actions that we took, as they best demonstrate how Treasury's debt management goals and
principles guide our policy decision making. In light of our lower borrowing requirements, we needed to develop a strategy for
decreasing our issuances of Treasury securities. The first question we faced was whether to
further decrease the issuance of Treasury bills. Over the last two years, we had been reducing the
amounts of Treasury bills offered. Consequently, the market in privately held Treasury bills had
declined in overall size by $135 billion, or 23 percent. Due to this change, the bill market had
become less liquid. In addition, our previous reductions in bill issuances had caused the average
life of our marketable debt to increase modestly. If left unaddressed, this would raise our
borrowing costs because over long periods of time, interest rates on shorter term borrowings tend
to be lower than on longer term borrowings. Moreover, Treasury bills, which are issued weekly,
allow us flexibility to best manage Treasury's fluctuating cash needs. For all of these reasons, we
decided to reduce our issuance of coupon debt, rather than further reduce issuance of Treasury
bills. The second question we faced was whether to make cuts across all of the existing types of
coupon debt, or to eliminate specific issues or maturities. The current issue sizes had already
been
reduced to levels in existence in 1992. The size of the U.S. capital markets have expanded
significantly since that time. Accordingly, we decided to concentrate our borrowing in fewer but
larger debt offerings. By reducing the total number of yearly coupon issues from 39 to 27, we
will promote market liquidity and efficiency, and best achieve lowest cost financing for
taxpayers.
The next question we faced was which issues or maturities to eliminate. The
discontinuation of a maturity is not unusual we discontinued 20-year bonds in 1986, 4-year
notes
in 1991, and 7-year notes in 1993. The 3-year note was chosen for elimination in response to
market demands. It is closest in maturity to another of Treasury's coupon offerings, the 2-year
note. In addition, the elimination of the 3-year note allows us to maintain financing across the
yield curve. We chose to reduce the frequency of new issues of 5-year notes, shifting to a
schedule of quarterly issuances to further concentrate our issuance. That change fits our cash
management needs by providing us with the cash we need in the middle of fiscal quarters. In sum, the debt management changes that we announced in May promoted the
achievement of Treasury's debt management goals. We reduced the Treasury offering schedule
to align new Treasury security issuance with the Government's need for financing. By
concentrating our financing on larger, more liquid issues, we are promoting capital markets as
well as lowest cost financing for the taxpayers. 4. Recent Innovations The changes that we instituted in May are just one example of the innovations in debt
management that have been achieved during the Clinton Administration. One of our most significant innovations has been the development of inflation-indexed
securities. These securities, first offered in January 1997, diversify the Government's financing
sources. We believe that this will lower Treasury's borrowing costs over the long term. They
also provide an important diversification tool for investors. Moreover, by providing inflation
protection, we believe that inflation-indexed securities promote savings. In addition, U.S. capital
markets now have securities that price inflation risk. Treasury has made a long-term
commitment
to develop the inflation indexed market further. In 1996, Treasury made it easier and less costly for state and local governments to
refinance and invest in Treasuries. We redesigned SLGS and made them more flexible. As
noted,
we are now experiencing record net new borrowing in the form of SLGS. In 1997, Treasury took steps to make savings bonds more attractive for American savers.
We began to calculate the savings bond interest rate using a different formula, which raised the
rate. We also began to accrue the interest on a monthly basis, instead of every six months. Later
this year, we will be introducing inflation-indexed savings bonds. These bonds will protect
hard-earned savings from inflation. They will be issued in denominations as low as $50, making
them
affordable for all Americans. We are also introducing some new services designed to make our securities more accessible
to investors. For example, later this year, we expect to offer savings bonds over the Internet. In
addition, we've made improvements to the Treasury DIRECT book-entry system. The changes
to Treasury DIRECT make it easier for investors to sell and to pay for Treasury securities, and
to reinvest proceeds. 5. Year 2000 Problem Before I conclude, I would like to take a moment to discuss the steps we are taking to
address the Year 2000 computer problem as it relates to the functioning of the market for
Treasury
securities. On Friday, December 31, 1999, the Treasury Department is scheduled to make principal
and interest payments of $35 billion. We are also scheduled to issue securities on that day. On
Monday, January 3, in the year 2000, we currently plan to conduct our usual weekly Treasury
bill
auctions. Treasury is committed to taking all the necessary steps to avoid any significant
disruption on that first trading day of the new millennium. Our efforts in this area are both internal and external. Internally, the Treasury and the
Federal Reserve have identified 14 critical securities-related systems, and are in the process of
ensuring that all of those systems are Year 2000 compliant. The critical systems include the
national book entry system, which maintains and transfers marketable Treasury securities; and
our
auction and trading systems, which receive and process auction tender information. We expect
to complete coding and testing for all but one of the systems by the end of 1998. Externally, Treasury has been reaching out to Treasury market participants to encourage
them to engage in Year 2000 readiness testing. Just last week, we co-sponsored a conference on
readiness testing in New York. In addition, we have been engaging with other members of the
Working Group on Financial Markets, both at the principal level and at the staff level, to address
this important issue. 6. Conclusion As I stated earlier, the Administration welcomes the challenge of managing a surplus rather
than financing a deficit. I will be happy to answer any questions you may have regarding
Treasury
debt management in this new era of budget surpluses.
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