FROM THE OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS

SUMMARY

The Administration today is releasing the budget results for Fiscal Year 2000⁽¹⁾. These results show the actual financial totals for the fiscal year that ended September 30, 2000, as follows:

• a unified budget surplus of $237 billion;
• an on-budget surplus (excluding Social Security and Postal Service) of $87 billion;
• a surplus excluding Medicare as well as Social Security and Postal Service of $58 billion;
• total outlays of $1,788 billion;
• total receipts of $2,025 billion; and
• a $223 billion reduction in the debt held by the public, bringing the debt down to under 35 percent of GDP from its peak of nearly 50 percent of GDP in 1993.

Table 1. TOTAL OUTLAYS, RECEIPTS AND SURPLUS

(in billions of dollars)

Surplus

Excluding Outlays Receipts Unified Soc. Sec.* Soc. Sec.*

1999 Actual: 1,702.9 1,827.3 124.4 0.7 123.7

2000

February Budget Estimate: 1,789.6 1,956.3 166.7 18.9 147.8

Mid-Session Review Estimate: 1,801.6 2,013.1 211.5 63.3 148.2

Actual: 1,788.0 2,025.0 237.0 87.2 149.8

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.

*Social Security and Postal Service

The unified surplus in FY 2000 was $237.0 billion, the largest ever, in nominal terms and almost twice as large as in FY 1999. Relative to the size of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), this year's surplus at 2.4 percent was the largest since 1948. This is the first time there have been three consecutive years of surpluses since 1947-49. Excluding Social Security and the Postal Service, the on-budget surplus of $87.2 billion was the largest ever and the first back-to-back annual surplus since 1956-57. Excluding Medicare as well as Social Security and the Postal Service, the surplus was $57.5 billion. This is the first such surplus since Medicare began operations in 1966.

This is the eighth consecutive year of improvement in the Federal budget position since the deficit peaked at $290.4 billion (4.7 percent of GDP) in FY 1992. This is the longest series of annual improvements in budget outcomes in the history of the United States. Since 1992, thanks to strong economic growth and a policy of fiscal discipline, outlays have grown at an average annual rate of only 3.3 percent per year (less than half the average of 7.3 percent per year over the preceding 12 years), while receipts have advanced at a rate of 8.0 percent per year (slightly faster than the 6.4 percent average from 1980 through 1992). Moreover, federal spending relative to GDP has declined for eight consecutive years under this Administration, and in FY 2000 was the lowest since 1966. Spending has been reduced from 22.2 percent of GDP in FY 1992 to 18.2 percent of GDP in FY 2000.

The change from the Mid-Session Review (MSR) surplus estimate reflects:

• a $13.6 billion decrease in outlays; and
• an $11.9 billion increase in receipts.

As a result of the unified surpluses over the last three fiscal years, the debt held by the public was reduced by $362.5 billion, or 9.6 percent - the largest 3-year dollar reduction in history - to bring the total debt held by the public down to $3,410.3 billion at the end of FY 2000 (reductions include: $51.2 billion in FY 1998, $88.7 billion in FY 1999, and $222.6 billion in FY 2000). Relative to GDP, the debt held by the public has declined for seven consecutive fiscal years - down from 49.5 percent in 1993 to 34.8 percent in FY 2000 - and is now at its lowest percentage since FY 1984. This string of seven consecutive years of declining debt relative to GDP is the longest since the period ending in 1967. Moreover, it represents the largest seven-year reduction in the debt ratio since the period ending in 1958, and reverses about three-fifths of the rise of the preceding 12 years.

Total outlays for FY 2000 were $1,788.0 billion, $13.6 billion lower than the MSR estimate. The major outlay changes since the MSR are described below. Table 2 displays actual outlays as well as estimates from the February Budget and the MSR by agency and major program.

Department of Defense - Military. Actual outlays for the Department of Defense - Military were $281.2 billion, $3.8 billion higher than the MSR estimate. The difference was primarily due to increased fuel prices and faster-than-expected execution of procurement programs.

Department of Education. Actual outlays for the Department of Education were $33.3 billion, $1.7 billion below the MSR estimate. The major outlay changes were due to lower- than-anticipated eligibility for student grant aid, slower- than-anticipated spending in special education, and lower-than-anticipated recipient draw-downs on other grants.

Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Actual outlays for the Department of Health and Human Services were $382.6 billion, $7.4 billion below the MSR estimate. Outlays for Medicare (excluding premiums) were $219.0 billion, $7.0 billion above last year, but $6.5 billion below the estimate in the MSR. Over half of the change from the MSR was due to an error in the Mid-Session assumptions about the number of managed care payments in FY 2000 and FY 2001; $3.4 billion of payments that the MSR assumed would be made in FY 2000 in fact were made at the beginning of FY 2001. The remaining difference was due to lower-than-expected payments to skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and inpatient hospitals. Inpatient hospital spending was lower than anticipated because of the reductions in the intensity of inpatient hospital cases during FY 2000. The Department and HCFA's efforts to combat Medicare fraud and abuse also contributed to the decline. Outlays for Medicaid were $1.0 billion above the estimate in the MSR, generally due to State payment increases to providers through the upper payment limit (UPL) mechanism. The Administration has published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to curb these payment practices. Outlays for a number of other HHS programs fell short of the MSR estimates.

Department of Housing and Urban Development. Actual outlays for the Department of Housing and Urban Development were $30.8 billion, $1.3 billion below the MSR estimate. About half of this difference was due to the timing of rental subsidy payments. Payments anticipated for the end of fiscal year 2000 did not take place until the beginning of 2001. The remaining difference is due to lower-than-anticipated spending for restructuring FHA insured multi-family mortgages, for public housing capital investments, and for FHA administrative contract expenses.

Department of Labor. Actual outlays for the Department of Labor were $31.4 billion, $1.9 billion below the MSR estimate. Outlays for Training and Employment Services were $1.1 billion below the Mid-Session estimate, due in part to lower-than-expected spending as States implemented the requirements of the Workforce Investment Act. Outlays for the Unemployment Trust Fund were $0.6 billion below the Mid-Session estimate, because the number of people who received benefits and the average weekly benefits were slightly less than anticipated.

Department of State. Actual outlays for the Department of State were $6.8 billion, $1.6 billion below the MSR estimate. The difference was largely due to a slower-than-expected spend-out of funds for embassy security upgrades and construction. Failure to enact a supplemental request for the Contributions to International Peacekeeping, and delays in the ability to make contributions to certain peacekeeping programs due to payment restrictions, account for most of the remaining difference.

Department of Treasury. Actual outlays for the Department of Treasury were $390.8 billion, $2.0 billion below the MSR estimate. The difference was largely due to higher-than- estimated offsetting receipts (the largest portion of which is the interest received from credit financing accounts), which were $2.1 billion higher than the MSR estimate.

International Assistance Programs. Actual outlays for International Assistance Programs were $12.1 billion, $1.6 billion higher than the MSR estimate. Outlays for international monetary programs were $1.1 billion. By contrast, due to uncertainties in projecting the future value of the market basket of currencies in the financial programs, the outlays for these programs in the Budget and MSR, by convention, are projected to be zero. In addition, outlays for Foreign Military Financing were $0.9 billion above the MSR estimates, because of higher outlays to Israel and Egypt. These increases were partly offset by lower-than-anticipated outlays for other international assistance programs.

Total receipts for FY 2000 were $2,025.0 billion, $11.9 billion higher than the MSR estimate. Higher-than-expected collections of individual income taxes, corporation income taxes, and social insurance and retirement receipts were only partially offset by lower-than-expected collections of other sources of receipts. Table 3 displays actual receipts and estimates from the Budget and MSR by source.

Individual income taxes were $1,004.5 billion, $5.6 billion higher than the MSR estimate. Higher-than-estimated payments of non-withheld taxes and lower-than-estimated refunds were partially offset by unanticipated prior-year accounting adjustments between individual income tax receipts and the receipts of the Medicare and Social Security trust funds. These adjustments reduced individual income taxes by $3.5 billion and increased receipts to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds by the same amount.

Corporation income taxes were $207.3 billion, $4.6 billion higher than the MSR estimate. Higher-than-anticipated payments and lower-than-anticipated refunds account for the increase in this source of receipts.

Social insurance and retirement receipts were $652.9 billion, $4.2 billion higher than the MSR estimate. Unanticipated prior-year adjustments between individual income taxes and the receipts of the Medicare and Social Security trust funds account for most of the increase in this source of receipts.

Other sources of receipts, primarily excise taxes and estate and gift taxes, were lower than estimated by a net of $2.4 billion.

1. The September 2000 Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government containing these results can be found on the Financial Management Service web site at: www.fms.treas.gov.