Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000 FGUS75 KBOU 241710 ESFBOU COC001-031-035-059-069-087-115-123-050000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1029 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2009 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...AHPS...ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS... IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A STREAM COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 5 MONTHS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT DENVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 11 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE STREAM WILL RISE ABOVE 6.9 FEET IN THE NEXT 5 MONTHS. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES IN FEET AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID APRIL 27 - SEPTEMBER 30 2009 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- SOUTH PLATTE RIVER SOUTH PLATTE 7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.3 5.6 DENVER 11 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.9 7.0 HENDERSON 10 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.7 8.2 8.4 8.8 KERSEY 10 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.5 8.7 9.6 WELDONA 10 4.4 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 7.0 7.5 7.8 8.6 BALZAC 10 4.0 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.2 8.1 JULESBURG 10 4.6 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.5 PLUM CREEK SEDALIA 8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.4 BEAR CREEK MORRISON 9 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.6 SHERIDAN 8 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 CLEAR CREEK GOLDEN 10 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.1 DERBY 9 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER FORT COLLINS 9NW 7.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.4 6.2 FORT COLLINS 12 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.9 8.6 GREELEY 9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.6 6.0 8.7 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER OFFICE ISSUES LONG RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS UPDATED NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. $$ TH