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000 FXUS63 KLOT 111139 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 639 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009 .DISCUSSION... 324 AM CDT DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WE USED THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE MOS GUIDANCE HAD THE LOWEST AVERAGE BIAS FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS. SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS WERE RUNNING A COOL BIAS WE RAISED THE TEMPERATURE VALUES UP A LITTLE. THE LOCAL WRF AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE USED IN THE DEWPOINT FORECASTS. THE GFS MODEL WAS USED FOR FORECAST MOVEMENT OF UPPER AIR AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH WEATHER PATTERNS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOW A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL FORECAST A LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. A WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO IOWA NORTH TO WESTERN ONTARIO BY 00 UTC THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH HAS A LARGE HEIGHT GRADIENT AND THERE IS A LOT VORTICITY FORECAST WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL GIVE A STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL WIND INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. ON THE SURFACE WE EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY STRONG. THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY AND IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... 635 AM CDT 1200 UTC TAFS...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH LAND/WATER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO DETERMINE LOCAL WINDS...IE ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDDAY. SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AT THAT TIME. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WI LAKE SHORE...NORTHEASTERN AND WESTERN IL TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING. MOST ALL OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT OF NORTHERN IL AND EXTREME NW IN...WHILE A PATCH OF VFR STRATOCU CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA OF CLOUDS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT BETWEEN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND CONTRACTION OF COVERAGE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ZONE IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE DURING THE MORNING THOUGH MAY BE FEW-SCT STRATOCU DEVELOPING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 15-16C REACHED EARLY AFTERNOON. TRS && .MARINE... 343 AM CDT LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS ON LAKE MI THE FIRST PART OF TODAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORS A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE TODAY AS THE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. LOCAL INFLUENCES AND LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY OBSCURE THIS WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW AND PREVAIL BY MIDDAY. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST TO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THOUGH VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE TAKING PLACE WITH 30 TO 40 KT SOUTH WINDS PROGGED AT 1K FT ABOVE THE SURFACE BY 00Z WED...STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO 35 TO 45 KTS BY WED MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG INVERSION DUE TO THE COLD WATER WILL SEVERELY LIMIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWN TO THE NEAR THE WATER SURFACE. MODELS DEPICT THE LOW TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING WED AND AS IT APPROACHES JAMES BAY LATE IN THE DAY A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS LOW BACK INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY THE TIME LOW LEVEL AIR COLD ENOUGH REMOVE THE INVERSION ARRIVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS FAR REMOVED HAVING MOVED TO NORTHERN QUEBEC BY THEN. THE RESULT IS A MUCH RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN LAKES BY MIDDAY AND THUS ONLY MODERATE WEST WINDS OF 20 KTS AND DECREASING WITH TIME EXPECTED THU. TRS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
