CRD 04-02

CRD 04-02

Table 29. Probability of extinction, average spawners for years 2082 to 2102, and replacement rate for two scenarios of increased survival, marine and parr1+ to smolt (juvenile), and five multiples of Conservation Spawning Escapement levels as initial population abundances.
  Marine Survival Increased 21% Juvenile Survival Increased 35%
Probability of Extinction
Probability of Extinction
River 10%CSE 20%CSE 30%CSE 40%CSE 50%CSE 10%CSE 20%CSE 30%CSE 40%CSE 50%CSE
DE 3.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 5.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5
EM 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2
MC 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
PL 7.0 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 10.4 3.4 2.1 1.1 1.2
NG 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
CB 34.3 17.0 8.1 5.7 4.1 43.4 25.6 16.4 12.7 11.4
DT 11.1 3.6 1.6 1.0 0.7 15.0 6.0 3.5 2.5 2.3
SHP 2.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
DPS 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Down 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
South 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1
Average Spawners
Average Spawners
River 10%CSE 20%CSE 30%CSE 40%CSE 50%CSE 10%CSE 20%CSE 30%CSE 40%CSE 50%CSE
DE 152.4 176.7 187.0 188.9 191.5 100.0 116.9 124.5 127.3 126.3
EM 204.2 228.8 240.2 243.3 246.8 134.5 152.9 160.7 164.9 162.9
MC 398.6 453.2 476.2 483.8 488.7 268.3 304.6 319.1 327.0 324.0
PL 80.2 94.6 99.0 100.7 102.1 51.8 61.3 65.2 67.3 66.1
NG 388.5 441.5 463.7 471.7 477.8 261.1 297.7 311.4 320.2 314.1
CB 17.3 20.4 21.6 21.8 22.2 9.8 12.2 13.2 13.7 13.8
DT 56.1 65.3 68.7 70.5 71.4 35.2 42.2 44.9 46.5 46.0
SHP 183.4 210.2 220.0 222.7 226.0 122.6 139.3 147.2 151.2 149.1
DPS 1464.3 1681.7 1769.7 1797.5 1824.6 973.7 1122.2 1177.7 1210.0 1198.2
Down 1215.3 1389.8 1459.7 1487.0 1507.4 807.3 930.6 974.4 1000.0 990.3
South 255.3 294.7 310.5 313.8 318.9 167.5 193.6 204.3 209.9 208.0
Replacement Rate
Replacement Rate
River 10%CSE 20%CSE 30%CSE 40%CSE 50%CSE 10%CSE 20%CSE 30%CSE 40%CSE 50%CSE
DE 0.970 0.977 0.978 0.980 0.978 0.931 0.951 0.953 0.961 0.955
EM 0.987 0.987 0.988 0.987 0.984 0.961 0.974 0.964 0.972 0.965
MC 0.992 0.991 0.987 0.989 0.987 0.974 0.981 0.979 0.977 0.975
PL 0.968 0.974 0.974 0.974 0.977 0.910 0.940 0.947 0.949 0.943
NG 0.994 0.987 0.986 0.984 0.987 0.972 0.974 0.975 0.979 0.975
CB 0.929 0.953 0.958 0.961 0.962 0.798 0.869 0.875 0.889 0.888
DT 0.952 0.961 0.971 0.971 0.973 0.894 0.919 0.929 0.931 0.933
SHP 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.984 0.951 0.964 0.963 0.966 0.967
DPS 1.019 1.010 1.004 1.006 1.001 1.011 1.006 1.000 1.002 0.998
Down 1.015 1.007 1.002 1.003 1.001 1.008 1.005 1.000 0.999 0.995
South 1.000 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.995 0.978 0.986 0.982 0.984 0.982

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