000
FNUS73 KAPX 231911
FWSAPX
SPOT FORECAST FOR MEMORABLE SOUTH RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
311 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGANS WEATHER. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
10 MPH AROUND SUNSET...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7 PM AND 8 PM. FINALLY...COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO GREATER THAN
80 PERCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
BRINGING AN NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE BURN SITE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE WILL BE A LOW END RISK
FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 2 PM. BUT
OVERALL CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. BUT OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT 40 PERCENT OR BETTER.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........4 0 0 0 5 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TEMP............70 65 61 59 57 56
RH..............42 56 67 72 80 83
20 FT WIND......S 7 SE 5 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 15 15 15
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5
SMOKE DISP......200 0 0 0 0 0
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 79.
RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 17
TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100 FT AGL AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2100-3300 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
(900).
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........7 37 37 48 48 48
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TEMP............54 52 63 72 79 78
RH..............90 96 62 48 42 47
20 FT WIND......S 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 S 8 S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 20 20
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5
SMOKE DISP......0 0 100 400 800 800
$$
FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM
REQUESTED BY...CHARLIE PATTERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20080924.MEMOR.01/APX
000
FNUS73 KAPX 231339
FWSAPX
SPOT FORECAST FOR DEWARD BURN...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
939 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW WARMER AIR INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS OF
15 TO 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES. LOCAL HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WARMEST AREAS NEAR
BELLAIRE/CADILLAC/GRAYLING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
AVERAGE
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 77.
RH..................41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (800).
TIME (EDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........17 13 13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TEMP............71 76 76
RH..............41 32 31
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5
SMOKE DISP......300 500 700
.TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 53.
RH..................MAX 94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE
IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
TEMP............72 64 60 58 56 55
RH..............37 52 81 88 92 92
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 8 S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 15 15
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77.
RH..................MIN 55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 23
TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1600).
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........46 53 53 53 69 69
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............54 55 64 72 75 75
RH..............91 90 78 65 55 55
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 7 S 8 SW 9 SW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 20 20
HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4
SMOKE DISP......0 0 400 1000 1500 1500
$$
FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20080923.DEWAR.01/APX
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