Table 4.  Model results based on 1996-2005 2-year running sum trend with a starting population size of 34,881 adult female loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), and quasi-extinction threshold equal to 250 adult females for base model and model with Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery takes added back into population.

Base
 Model

With Fishery Takes Added Back In

Population trend

-0.049

-0.046

Variance of trend

0.011

0.011

Upper confidence limit

0.037

0.040

Lower confidence limit

-0.135

-0.1322

Quasi-extinction risk with 95% confidence interval in  parentheses

@ 25 years

0.00 (0, 0)

0.00 (0, 0)

@ 50 years

0.00 (0, 0.03)

0.00 (0, 0.02)

@ 75 years

0.10 (0, 0.67)

0.06 (0, 0.57)

@ 100 years

0.54 (0.02, 0.98)

0.42 (0.01, 0.996)

Median time to extinction

98 years

102 years