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Changes in Ecosystems
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Updated 17 September 2008
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Ecosystems |
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Changing EcosystemsNear-Term Plans Archived News Postings [June 2000 - July 2005] CCSP / USGCRP Ecosystems Working Group Members
Past Accomplishments:
Climate Change Science Program. FY 2008 Scientific Research Budget by USGCRP Research Element |
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HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2009Establishing a National Phenological Network. Phenological data and models are important to agriculture, drought monitoring, and wildfire risk assessment, as well as management of invasive and pest species and infectious diseases. Existing phenological records are largely short term and spotty, however. In response, the U.S. National Phenological Network (NPN) is an emerging partnership among the academic community, several Federal agencies, and volunteers designed to fill that void through integration of data, analysis, and modeling. NPN will create four products: a meta-database of existing phenological data, a set of data collection and management protocols, lists of target species and infectious diseases representative of ecoregions, and an enhanced web site to facilitate communication and data access. While phenological models are important to infectious diseases and may be useful, few such models currently exist. Members of the public will be substantially involved as citizen-scientists in NPN. This activity will address Questions 8.1 and 8.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Linking Arctic Climate Change, Societies, and Natural Systems. High-latitude ecosystems are experiencing the most pronounced environmental changes on Earth, making new research initiated as part of the fourth International Polar Year (IPY, 2007-2009) especially timely. Research will examine how key human services provided by natural ecosystems are changing throughout Alaska as the dynamic linkages between human social systems (both native and non-native) and natural systems change as warming continues to occur over time. Of particular focus in the study will be walrus, caribou, moose, wild berries, and forest fires. This activity will address Questions 8.1, 8.2, and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Experimental Study of Warming at the Alpine Tree Line. Warming of several degrees Celsius, as projected for this century by climate models, has the potential to force the alpine tree line above the peak elevation of many western mountains of the United States. Such an upward “migration” of the alpine tree line might displace or eliminate existing alpine ecosystems (e.g., alpine meadows now found above the tree line). A set of experimental manipulations of temperature at the alpine tree line in the western United States is planned to begin in FY 2009. The experiments will determine effects of increased temperature on the ability of trees to germinate and grow at elevations above the present tree line, and thus to potentially displace existing alpine ecosystems if they experience future warming. This activity will address Question 8.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Wildlife Habitats. Impacts of climate on vegetation are expected to significantly affect wildlife habitat and diversity. Wildlife agencies need information on these impacts as well as potential options for ameliorating them. Scientists will synthesize information on interactions between climate and vegetation change to quantify potential effects of predicted changes in habitat on terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity and identify management options. This activity will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Tree Growth and Stand Dynamics Projections incorporating Climate Change. Scientists and managers will develop and evaluate approaches for integrating climate change into the Forest Vegetation Simulator. The simulator is widely used by forest planners and fire managers in the Forest Service, DOI, and other agencies to project effects on tree growth and stand-level dynamics of thinning, prescribed fire, and other treatments, as well as effects of insect and disease interactions. This activity will address Question 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Understanding Tropical Diversity with Satellite, Morphological, and Molecular Data. A combination of satellite remote sensing, measures of morphological traits from target bird species, and genetic markers is shedding light on the drivers of species diversification in the Ecuadorian Andes, a neotropical biodiversity hotspot. Morphological data allow detection of traits under selection and genetic techniques reveal the role of geographic barriers (e.g., mountains and rivers) in promoting divergent evolution. Remote-sensing data allow correlation of patterns of variation in the biological information obtained on the ground with climatic, topographical, and other environmental variables (e.g., vegetation characteristics) in order to elucidate some of the factors driving diversification. Correlating environmental landscapes with “morphological landscapes” and “genetic landscapes” will allow mapping of both biodiversity patterns and the underlying processes, vital information for projecting effects of climate change. This activity will address Question 8.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Nonlinear Responses to Global Change in Aquatic Ecosystems. Several research efforts focus on identifying nonlinear responses to global change in aquatic ecosystems. Potential “regime shifts” involve the fundamental reorganization of natural ecosystems as environmental conditions change. They are difficult to predict, but may occur rapidly, and have potentially large consequences for ecosystem services. A new manipulative experiment will test predictions relating the stability of a Michigan lake to the structure of its food web. If predictions are correct, then it should become increasingly possible to forecast such changes in other ecosystems, perhaps in time to intervene. New modeling efforts will also contribute to the prediction of nonlinear responses. These results may be incorporated into local planning and management processes, to help prevent regime shifts in other aquatic ecosystems. This activity will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Implications of Climate Change for Biological Indicators and Invasive Species. Research will be conducted on how biological indicators may be used to detect or control climate change effects in aquatic ecosystems, including changes in community composition, phenology, reproductive rate, evolutionary adaptations, and genetic selection. Assessment programs relying on biological indicators to document ecosystem condition will use this research to identify climate effects on ecosystems. This information allows modification of assessment programs to account for effects and to ensure that management goals continue to be met. Another indicator of potential changes is aquatic invasive species. Research will focus on implications of climate change effects on the invasion pathway and ecosystem management. A synthesis of management activities; effects on aquatic organisms, pathways, and ecosystem services; and available literature will describe adaptation options for aquatic invasive species management. This activity will address Questions 8.2 and 8.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Fisheries. Regional ecosystem studies will be conducted to develop and test assessment and prediction capabilities to aid fisheries management. Monitoring and process studies will help determine the mechanisms and rates of climate impacts on ecosystems. Studies will also synthesize historical information on species of interest and collect new data necessary to construct models of their larval transport. The models will eventually simulate transport scenarios for regional changes in wind and runoff patterns, which drive the ocean currents. Reproductive success of many important fisheries species depends upon the transport of their eggs and larvae to suitable habitat. The development and testing of recruitment and environmental indices will also continue in order to increase their accuracy and precision for predicting important ecosystem changes. This activity will address Question 8.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Ocean Acidification—Changing Oceans, Changing Ecosystems. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels are altering ocean chemistry and threatening marine biodiversity. Decreasing oceanic pH resulting from increasing atmospheric CO2 reduces the abilities of calcifying organisms, such as corals and crustaceans, to form skeletons and shells. It is increasingly urgent to have a mechanistic understanding of marine carbonate chemistry, including historical fluctuations and current trends, as well as predicting the responses of marine ecosystems to increased acidity (reduced pH). Upcoming research will include studies on historical fluctuations of pH based on the geological record, monitoring and establishing long-term time series of marine carbonate chemistry, in situ monitoring of calcification rates of key species, evolutionary change in organisms in response to changing chemistry, compensatory shifts in species within functional groups and the role of biodiversity in facilitating such shifts, effects of lower pH on coral calcification, functional genomics studies of pH effects on molecular regulation of calcification, and development of models to predict effects of multiple environmental changes on organism, population, and ecosystem-level adaptation. This activity will address Question 8.2. of the CCSP Strategic Plan.
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