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What are the implications
of a continued, long-term build-up of greenhouse gas emissions in a
business-as-usual manner? What kinds of changes can one reasonably anticipate
in a world in which the concentration of atmospheric CO2 is quadrupled
relative to today's concentration of CO2, and relative to a doubled
CO2 world? What will be the relative importance of the concentration
of sulfate aerosol pollution versus carbon dioxide in the long-term?
What are the societal implications of a world in which the concentration
of CO2 is quadrupled? What are the climate implications of burning the
Earth's remaining coal reserves?
INTRODUCTION:
Dr. Michael MacCracken
Executive Director, U.S. Global Change Research Program Coordination
Office, Washington, DC
SPEAKER:
Dr. Jerry D. Mahlman
Director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton, NJ
Overview
Much of the recent scientific
research on human-induced climate change has assumed that atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentrations will double over the next century (2xCO2),
resulting in a globally averaged temperature increase of 1 to 3.5�C
by the year 2100. However, analyses of future emission scenarios in
the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment
report and elsewhere indicate that, on a multi-century time scale, if
the build-up of greenhouse gas emissions continues in a business-as-usual
manner, CO2 levels would rise to well beyond a doubling unless very
substantial reductions occur in the projected emissions. In fact, the
median emissions scenario (IS92a) used in the 1995 IPCC assessment report
suggests that we are already on a trajectory toward a quadrupling of
the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Prudence would, therefore,
dictate that science explore the implications of the long-term build-up
of atmospheric CO2 and, in the process, attempt to better understand
what might constitute "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with the
Earth's climate system. In this seminar, Dr. Mahlman will examine the
potential impacts of quadrupling the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere
(4xCO2), and compare those results to those associated with a projected
doubling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2.
Model
Projections of Climate Change in a Quadrupled CO2 World
On a multi-century time
scale, the cooling influence due to the contribution from anthropogenic
sulfate aerosol pollution will be overwhelmed by the importance of the
much longer lived increase in the CO2 concentration. Aerosols will,
in time, become largely irrelevant in terms of their impact on global
climate change. Warming from the increasing concentrations of CO2 is
projected to be especially large over much of the mid-latitude continental
regions, including North America and Asia. Model projections of temperature
changes in such a future world are as much as 10 to 14�C higher than
today. Sea-ice coverage over the Arctic Ocean is projected to decrease
substantially; during late summer, for example, sea ice is virtually
absent in the 4xCO2 world projection.
The process of climate
change is very long-term. Because the heat-driven expansion of seawater
as the oceans warm will only slowly heat the entire ocean, the thermally
driven rise in sea level is expected to continue for centuries after
the "model" build-up of atmospheric CO2 ceases. In the 4xCO2 projection,
for example, sea level continues to rise steadily well beyond 500 years
into the future, even though the build-up in CO2 ceases after 140 years.
At the 500-year point in the future, sea level is projected to have
risen by approximately 2 meters (roughly 6 feet). It is also quite possible
that the effect of melting of continental ice sheets could increase
these numbers substantially.
Model simulations also
project that the global ocean's overturning circulation (oceanic circulation
is presently responsible for transporting heat from the tropics to higher
latitudes) would decrease sharply in intensity as greenhouse gas warming
escalates. This would occur because the increased precipitation and
runoff from the continents in high latitudes freshens high-latitude
waters. In the 4xCO2 model experiment, the oceanic, salinity-driven
circulation (thermohaline circulation) essentially ceases after 200
years. This change provokes a major change in the transport of heat
by the oceans. In the 2xCO2 world experiment, the thermohaline circulation
drops off significantly within 150 to 200 years' time, then recovers
to its initial strength after several centuries. Model experiments show
that the faster the rate of build-up of CO2, the larger the reduction
in oceanic thermohaline circulation and the longer the delay in its
recovery.
The GFDL model simulations
also project significant decreases in soil moisture over most mid-latitude
continental areas during the summer months. Typical model reductions
in soil moisture over North America are on the order of 50% in the 4xCO2
experiment. Such changes would have a large impact on food production.
Model projections further
reveal that as the concentration of atmospheric CO2 increases, both
surface air temperature and atmospheric moisture content increase, resulting
in an elevated heat index. The heat index (apparent temperature) is
a measure of the stress imposed on humans and other species by elevated
levels of atmospheric moisture and temperature. The higher the heat
index, the harder it is for the body to dissipate heat. The elevation
in the heat index for a 4xCO2 world is roughly double what it would
be in a world with a doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2.
Possible changes to tropical
storm intensity and/or frequency are presently uncertain but are also
of great concern.
Biography of Dr. Jerry
D. Mahlman
Dr. Jerry D. Mahlman is
the Director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - one of the world's leading climate
modeling centers. He also holds a Professorship in Atmospheric and Oceanic
Sciences at Princeton University. His research career has been directed
at modeling, diagnosing, and understanding the behavior of the atmosphere
and its implications for climate and chemical change. Dr. Mahlman serves
as the Chair of the Scientific Advisory Committee of NASA's Mission
to Planet Earth, a member of the National Research Council's Board on
Sustainable Development, the US Representative to the World Climate
Research Programme, and a member of NASA's Advisory Council. From 1989-1991,
Dr. Mahlman served as a member of the US-USSR Joint National Academy
of Sciences Committee on Global Ecology. He is the recipient of two
NOAA Distinguished Authorship Awards, the Department of Commerce Gold
Medal, the Presidential Distinguished Rank Award, the American Meteorological
Society's Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, and an Honorary Alumnus
Award from Colorado State University.
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