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12 October, 2003
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Greenhouse
Gas Emissions Scenarios: Their Content, Assumptions, and Implications USGCRP Seminar, 16 September 1996 
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What are present levels and mix of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? Which countries are the largest GHG emitters now and which will be the largest emitters in the future? What does it mean to stabilize emissions at a certain level versus stabilizing emissions at a certain concentration? What will it take to reduce emissions? What options are available for reducing emissions on a scale that would be effective?
INTRODUCTION:
Jane Leggett Emil
Director of the Climate,
Policy, and Programs Division, Office of Economy and Environment, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC
SPEAKERS:
Gregg Marland, Ph.D.
Environmental Sciences Division,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
William J. Pepper
Senior Vice President, ICF
Kaiser International, Inc., Fairfax, VA
OVERVIEW The atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) is increasing, and it is increasing now largely because of the combustion of fossil fuels. Since the beginning of the fossil fuel era, we have released over 250 billion metric tons of carbon (C) from fossil fuels to the atmosphere as CO2, and the rate of release now exceeds 6 billion tons of C per year. Prior to the fossil fuel era, the atmosphere contained about 600 billion tons of C as CO2. Emissions in 1995 were greater than the sum of all emissions prior to 1883 and fully half of all emissions have been since 1972. In 1950, the US, USSR, and UK were the top three fossil fuel-burning countries, and contributed 62% of global total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. By 1990, these three countries contributed 42% of the total, while the UK had dropped to seventh behind more rapidly growing China, Japan, Germany, and India. From 1950 to 1990, global per capita emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels increased by a factor of 1.8 while global population increased by a factor of 2.1. These two factors caused annual CO2 emissions to go up by a factor of 3.7.
Historical Perspective on CO2 Emissions In this seminar, Dr. Marland will describe the history and pattern of CO2 emissions, where they come from in the economy, and where they come from in the world. Dr. Marland will also discuss some rules for estimating national CO2 emissions and the significance and accuracy of the estimates. There are four primary conclusions: (1) Anthropogenic emissions, dominantly from the burning of fossil fuels, are responsible for the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere; (2) current emissions are dominantly from a small number of developed and/or large, populous countries; (3) there are wide disparities in per capita emissions rates around the world; and (4) growth rates of emissions and the potential for growth in emissions are very large in some developing parts of the world.
The Future
of CO2 Emissions
Mr. Pepper will describe
the emissions scenarios prepared in support of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1992 and 1995 assessment reports. He
will also describe the size of emissions reductions required to meet
various CO2 emission concentration targets. These scenarios were developed
as part of the IPCC assessment process so that the scientific community
would have a consistent set of emissions profiles to use in evaluating
and comparing their more detailed climate models; they have been used
by the IPCC and others for projections of future changes in concentrations
of greenhouse gases. These scenarios do not represent political commitments
or negotiating positions.
Mr. Pepper will describe
the sources of greenhouse gas emissions and the key variables and assumptions
expected to influence future emissions levels. He will summarize the
results of the scenarios and the uncertainties surrounding the emissions
estimates.
He will then consider several
hypothetical concentration targets and describe the reductions in emissions
that would be required to meet them. The impacts on emissions of changes
in energy use or use of alternatives to carbon-based fuels will also
be addressed.
Gregg Marland is a Senior Research Staff Member in the Environmental Sciences Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For over 20 years he has been involved in analyses of global change and the environmental impacts of energy systems. He has studied the sources and some of the potential mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas emissions and has helped define the methodologies and emissions coefficients now in use for estimating CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. He is currently convener for the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA), an activity within the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) project. Among other activities, Dr. Marland has served on the National Academy of Sciences panel on �Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming,� the Council on Agricultural Science and Technology panel on �Preparing U.S. Agriculture for Global Climate Change,� the National Technical Advisory Committee of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change (NIGEC), and has been reviewer, contributor, and lead author for various portions of the IPCC First and Second Assessment Reports. He is co-editor of a recent volume on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Response Policies in Central and Eastern Europe; co-author of the Graz/Oak Ridge Carbon Assessment Model (GORCAM), an integrated forest/forest-products model designed to evaluate the impact of forest management alternatives on net flows of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere; and the U.S. team leader on an International Energy Agency Biomass Agreement task on biomass fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. Dr. Marland received a B.S. from Virginia Tech, and a Ph.D. in Geology from the University of Minnesota.
William J. Pepper is a Senior Vice President of ICF Kaiser International, Inc., with more than 17 years of experience in analyzing and modeling environmental and energy issues. Mr. Pepper started at ICF in 1979, and specialized in modeling U.S. and international oil and gas markets for both Federal and private clients. Since 1987, he has specialized in modeling future emissions of greenhouse gases. Mr. Pepper developed the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF) for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. He developed emissions scenarios for the IPCC in 1990, and also assisted the IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup with developing their integrated analysis of options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Mr. Pepper also was a key author in developing the 1992 scenarios for the IPCC. Mr. Pepper has a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of Maryland and an M.A. in Mathematics from Temple University.
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