by
Zhu Ning
The assessment
of possible climate change impacts for the Gulf Coast region reached
an important milestone in February 1998 when Southern University hosted
its regional Climate Change Workshop and Public Forum. The purpose
of this workshop, supported by funds from the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, was to explore the region's potential vulnerabilities
to climate variability and climate change, and to obtain information
that could be aggregated across regions in support of the US National
Assessment. The workshop focused on creating a preliminary scoping
assessment of the region's principal socioeconomic activities
and of other values important to the region, as these could be affected
by future climate change: coastal ecosystem, farming, forests, commerce,
energy, fisheries, aquaculture, health, water resources, air quality,
recreation, and tourism. More than 200 scientists, policy makers,
stakeholders, industry representatives, state, regional, and national
experts attended the workshop. The ethnic and cultural makeup of the
workshop participants reflected that of the region as a whole.
The workshop participants identified current stresses and other issues
of concern throughout the region, considered how climate variability
and climate change might interact in the future with these stresses
and issues, discussed the information needed to support a full regional
climate assessment, identified a range of possible coping strategies,
characterized regional research needs, and suggested regional follow-up
assessment activities. The major workshop findings are published in
a report entitled, Global Climate Change and Its Consequences
for the Gulf Coast Region of the United States -- . This report
can be found on the National Assessment website, www.nacc.usgcrp.gov.
Out of this workshop was conceived the plan for a full Gulf Coast
regional climate assessment. Intensive work on this assessment
will begin early in 2000. It will encompass the Gulf coastal
plains of southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and western Florida and the contiguous coastal waters
on the continental shelf. This region is home to a large proportion
of the Nation's petroleum-producing and petrochemical facilities.
It has a robust fishing industry, productive bottomland forests and
farms, and extensive wetlands and estuarine ecosystems. The
individuals populating this region are diverse with a range of social
and ethnic backgrounds, living in large population centers and in
rural communities.
The overall goal of this assessment effort is to analyze and evaluate
the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the
region in the context of other pressures on the people, environment,
and natural resources of the region. Specific assessment objectives
are to: 1) select and apply climate scenarios/models, ecosystem models,
and socioeconomic trend scenarios to regional data bases; 2) assess
potential climate change impacts on sectors within the region, with
an emphasis on coastal ecosystems and bottomland forests; 3) assess
the consequences of such impacts for typical communities within the
region, with special attention to the vulnerability of minority communities;
5) conduct outreach activities for stakeholders to create a two-way
exchange of information, especially for minority communities, small
limited-resource farmers, minority farmers, small woodland forest
owners, and socially and economically disadvantaged communities; and
6) build institutional capacity at Southern University by developing
a core team of faculty members who would be capable of making substantial
contributions to future climate change assessment projects.
Scientists at Southern University and A&M College, an 1890 land-grant
Historically Black College and University (HBCU) institution, will
lead this assessment. Southern University is the largest institution
within the nation's historically black university system. It
is located on three campuses and is optimally positioned to serve
black and other minority communities throughout the Gulf Coast region.
Scientists from Louisiana State University, the National Wetland Research
Center (USGS), and Alabama A&M State University (also an HBCU
institution) will also play important roles in this assessment.
The interrelationship between the physical and ecological natural
environment and humans and their society has been explicitly recognized
in the planning of this regional assessment. Most agree that
the goals of environmental protection and economic development must
be in balance if society is to be sustainable over the long-term in
providing for the wellbeing of its members, now and into the future.
This study effort will incorporate ecological, economic, social, and
cultural values into the assessment process in an effort to inform
on some aspects of how such a balance might be achieved. Due
to the unique perspective and capabilities of scientists at Southern,
this assessment will give particular attention to the potential impacts
of climate change on minority communities. It will do so by
assessing potential socioeconomic impacts on small, limited-resource
farmers, minority forest/woodland owners, and socially and economically
disadvantaged communities.
The assessment will be integrated horizontally to include two crucial
sectors: coastal ecosystems and bottomland forests. It will
also be integrated vertically starting with climate scenarios, to
ecosystem models, to socioeconomic trends, to socioeconomic consequences.
The assessment of some critical issues will be made by means of scientists
conducting specially selected case studies. Case study results
will provide sound scientific data and analyses to support the more
generalized impact analyses and projections.
Outreach and stakeholder involvement will also be a fundamental component
of the assessment. Concerted efforts will be made to expand
the stakeholder network that was initially established by Southern
University before, during and after the Gulf Coast Regional Climate
Change Assessment Workshop. These stakeholders include policy
makers, managers, planers, scientists, private business owners, farmers,
fishermen, minorities, and members of low-income communities. Outreach
workshops and town meetings will be held to obtain detailed information
on key issues, concerns, coping strategies, and research needs.
Analytical results, such as the findings of the case studies, will
be submitted to relevant scholarly journals. The final
regional report and its compendium of papers with supporting analyses
will be thoroughly peer-reviewed and completed in early 2002.
These results will be a regional contribution to whatever form the
post-2000 National Assessment of climate change may take. They
will form a base upon which investigators can build in future attempts
to assemble more reaching and comprehensive assessments of climate
variability and change in the Gulf Coast region. Equally importantly,
the results will be distributed to regional stakeholders, policy makers,
scientists, and the general public to inform their views on preparing
for climate variability and climate change.
For more information, contact:
Zhu Ning, Gulf Coast Regional Climate Change Assessment Project Director,
Southern University, Baton Rouge, LA 70813; phone and fax: (225) 771-3286;
email:zning@subr.edu