Decision-Support Resources Development & Related Research on Human Contributions and ResponsesNear-Term Plans Archived News Postings [June 2000 - July 2005] CCSP / USGCRP Human Contributions and Responses Working Group Members
Past Accomplishments:
Climate Change Science Program. FY 2008 Scientific Research Budget by USGCRP Research Element |
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HIGHLIGHTS OF HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE – PLANS FOR FY 2009Climate Change and Human Health. Exposure to allergens results in allergenic illnesses in approximately 20% of the U.S. population. Climate change, including increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, could have significant impacts on the production, distribution, dispersion, and allergenicity of aeroallergens and the growth and distribution of organisms that produce them (i.e., weeds, grasses, trees, and fungus). Shifts in aeroallergen production and, subsequently, human exposures, may result in changes in the prevalence and severity of symptoms in individuals with allergenic illnesses. EPA and CDC plan to investigate this potential health effect through the award of competitive multi-year grants as part of an interagency program on climate change and health. This activity will address Question 9.4 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Climate Change and Water Quality. The movement of water through the atmosphere, the exchange of water between the atmosphere and the surface, and the movement and storage of water on and below the land surface are linked through physical and dynamical processes occurring over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Watershed biogeochemical and other processes, including interaction with human stressors such as changes in land use, pollutant loading, and water flow management, likewise occur over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Climate change has the potential to interact with these systems and stressors in complex ways, leading to potentially significant impacts on water quality. Cutting-edge research, conducted through a competitive grants program, will be undertaken to improve information and understanding regarding the ways climate change affects water quantity and quality that in turn will lead to better analysis and decisionmaking. This activity will address Question 9.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Exploring the Role of Science and Technology in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation. A significant challenge for models that simulate human dimensions of climate change is their ability to incorporate the potential role of scientific advances into the mix and what this might mean for transformational shifts in technology, both to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Similarly, improved probabilistic frameworks and alternative methods are needed that provide complementary perspectives within and outside of existing integrated assessment models. During 2007, a workshop attended by many agencies and international researchers focused attention on this vexing challenge and offered alternative perspectives on methods and tools that should be considered. Two national laboratory teams and one university-based team have been challenged to take on this assignment at, recognizably, a modest level of effort. Recognizing the highly important role and corresponding uncertainties of potential advances in science and technology, especially as informed by SAP 2.1, additional analytical, computational, and mathematical expertise will be pursued in subsequent years as funding permits. This activity will address Question 9.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Research into the Energy/Water Nexus. Climate change projections suggest that water availability is likely to be affected in coming decades, especially in regions whose surface water supply depends substantially on winter snowfall. The national laboratories, in partnership with universities and industry, are exploring new techniques for incorporating water demand and management strategies within the framework of integrated assessment models, particularly to understand the sensitivities of biomass production, agricultural land use, and energy production to adaptation and management decisions. Investigations are attempting to unravel a host of connections between such potential regional water-supply impacts of climate change and the Nation’s energy systems. Examples range from effects on energy supply as climate change increases demands for cooling—related to such issues as hydropower resources, cooling water requirements for thermal electricity generation, and water requirements for bioenergy production—to energy needs for groundwater pumping and surface water transport, all of this in a context of demographic, economic, and land-use change. Additional future research will attempt to link improved precipitation modeling capacities in Earth system models with integrated assessment models and analyses of climate change impacts and adaptation potentials in order to anticipate needs for decision support related to possible pressures on the “energy/water nexus.” This activity will address Question 9.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Understanding Infrastructure and Energy Vulnerabilities under Extreme Weather Challenges. In many cases, social concerns about the effects of climate change are focused on extremes rather than averages. Examples include severe storms, heat waves, and droughts. In addition, there is significant concern that many important ecosystem responses—such as the response of forests and crops to pests, pathogens, and fire—can be quite abrupt, as seen now in the pine bark beetle epidemics in the Pacific Northwest and the increase in fire frequency throughout the West. The integrated assessment community is developing methods for incorporating our best current understanding of such phenomena in the context of adaptation decisions. Close interactions with Earth system modelers and the ecological research community are important components of this research. In the case of energy systems, particular concerns include effects of heat waves on electricity demand and distribution systems (as in the summer of 2006), effects of droughts on competition among economic sectors for scarce water, and effects of severe storms on energy infrastructures in vulnerable areas (as with Hurricane Katrina). One area of active research in the Earth system modeling community is enhancing the ability of climate models to project extremes. Linked to these developments and with regard to the human dimensions, research efforts are beginning that will improve capacities to understand and model implications of such extreme events for energy systems and infrastructures and their possible effects on national and regional economies. This activity will address Question 9.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. HIGHLIGHTS OF DECISION-SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT – PLANS FOR FY 2009Upcoming Report from the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change. CHDGC is expected to release Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support in FY 2009. This report will elaborate a framework for organizing and evaluating decision-support activities for CCSP, with special attention to sectors and issues of concern to the sponsors. It will also consider needs for science in support of decisions related to natural disasters and extreme events associated with climate change, such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes. The study panel will consider the range of relevant decisions, decisionmakers, decision contexts, spatial and temporal frames, and decision-support objectives, and current and potential strategies for organizing decision-support efforts to meet these objectives—taking into account the fact that, in some sectors, the desired outcomes of decision-support activities may not be clear in advance. This activity will support Decision Support Goals 1 and 3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Testing, Inter-Model Comparison, and Validation Methods for Integrated Assessment Research. There is a recognized need to improve testing, inter-model comparisons, and validation of integrated assessment models as the rapidly expanding field assumes greater prominence and importance in helping to inform, at the national and regional levels, climate change policies and actions over the coming years. SAP 2.1 was a first of its kind U.S. effort that involved the comparison of three models from three independent teams: MIT, JGCRI, and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). It marked an important beginning that, through subsequent discussions, has highlighted the many advanced techniques and methods that can and will be applied to help strengthen the scientific discipline and rigor within the field. The topic took on greater focus at the 2007 Integrated Assessment Annual Meeting with participation of many agencies and domestic and international researchers. The need for testing and validation was also separately highlighted by an independent advisory committee to one of the lead agencies that sponsors integrated assessment research. Several potential paths forward were discussed at the annual meeting and planning is underway to pursue select targets of opportunity. Close coordination with the Earth system modeling community is anticipated as this initiative takes shape. This activity will support Decision Support Goal 3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Modeling Tool to Enable Assessment of Soil Erosion. An online decision-support capability within the USDA Agricultural Research Service’s Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) soil erosion model is being developed. New climate change assessment capabilities within WEPP will enable land managers to develop best management practices to lessen the impacts of climate variability and change on sediment loading from agricultural land to streams. The need for developing similar climate assessment capabilities for models applicable to urban drainage and design will be evaluated. This activity will support Decision Support Goal 2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Coping with Drought. CCSP, working with its partner Federal agencies through regional and sectoral projects, will support research and stakeholder interactions focused on using climate impacts information for drought planning and resource management. Emphasis will be placed on drought-prone areas of the western and southeastern United States where conflicts over water are growing. This will contribute to both the NIDIS being developed across a number of CCSP agencies and to the CCSP FY 2009 priority on climate, hydrology, and water management. This activity will support Decision Support Goal 2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Disaster Preparedness. The CCSP-sponsored International Research Institute for Climate and Society has entered into a partnership with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies to use climate information and forecasts to improve disaster preparedness and response capabilities. Traditional climate tools are being tailored in innovative ways to identify areas that are especially vulnerable to climate-related disasters. This activity will support Decision Support Goal 2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Decision Support for Coastal Resource Management and Community Resilience. As part of a broader effort, CCSP plans to develop decision-support resources and research applications for coastal resource management and hazards preparedness through place-based interdisciplinary climate research and assessment focused on vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation. Examples of decision-support resources include web portals; derived data analysis products; geographic information system (GIS) tools that integrate social, economic, and climate data in a useful and interactive format; “guidebooks” for public distribution describing potential climate sensitivity in coastal regions; impacts assessments; and methodologies for applying climate information in management and policy activities related to coastal resources. This activity will support Decision Support Goal 2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.
HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES AND DECISION-SUPPORT RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT CHAPTER REFERENCES1) NRC, 2001: Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 29 pp. 2) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 3) Snover, A.K., L. Whitely Binder, J. Lopez, E. Willmott, J. Kay, D. Howell, and J. Simmonds, 2007: Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA. Available at this link.
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