International Research and Cooperation
USGCRP Recent Accomplishments

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

Overview

Recent Accomplishments

Near-Term Plans

CCSP / USGCRP International Working Group Members

For long term plans, see International Research & Cooperation chapter of the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program (2003) posted on CCSP web site.

The following are selected highlights of recent activities supported by CCSP participating agencies (as reported in the fiscal year 2009 edition of the annual report, Our Changing Planet).

Aviation-Climate Change Research Initiative. The Aviation-Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) was developed with the objective of improving the state of scientific knowledge and addressing key knowledge gaps while making the best practical use of available science and modeling capability to quantify the climate impacts of aviation. ACCRI coordinates the research efforts supported by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Environment and Energy and the NASA Earth Science Research Division (ESRD) as well as the NASA Applied Sciences Program (ASP), with the involvement of other Federal agencies.

Demand for air travel is projected to grow substantially. Studies based on previous passenger and cargo loads have shown that emissions from air travel as compared to other sources have been relatively small. However, concern has been raised regarding the impact of emissions from the projected increase in air traffic. To address these issues and to meet future aviation demand, the Joint Planning and Development Office of the United States developed the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen): Integrated Plan. During June 2006, FAA and NASA jointly sponsored a workshop on the Impacts of Aviation on Climate Change to assess and document the present state of knowledge on this subject. The report documenting the recommendations and findings of this workshop is available at this link.

ACCRI developed subject-specific white papers on key areas (covering various aspects of aviation-related climate impacts) that provided a focused, in depth review of the present understanding of the scientific principles, uncertainties, and gaps, and the present state of modeling capability based on the best current scientific knowledge of each. In 2008, a select group of scientists were convened to discuss and integrate the findings from all the white papers into a composite report on the research required to improve the state of knowledge in this area. In addition, this meeting provided suggestions for designing scenarios for impact assessment simulations and analyses using the best modeling tools and modules (and their integration). A report is expected in late 2008.

Bilateral Cooperation in Climate Change Science and Technology. Since June 2001, the United States has launched bilateral climate partnerships with 15 countries and regional organizations that, combined with the United States, account for almost 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions. For more information on the bilateral and regional climate partnerships, visit <state.gov/g/oes/climate/c22820.htm>. Partnerships have been established with Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama), the European Union, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and South Africa. These bilateral initiatives seek to build on key elements of CCSP and the Climate Change Technology Program, including research, observations, data management and distribution, and capacity building. These partnerships now encompass 474 individual activities. Successful joint projects have been initiated in areas such as climate change science; clean and advanced energy technologies; carbon capture, storage, and sequestration; and policy approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The United States is also assisting key developing countries in efforts to build the scientific and technological capacity needed to address climate change.

Two ongoing objectives for the bilateral activities will be continued advancement of results-oriented programs and the fostering of substantive policy dialogs within all of the bilateral climate change partnerships. In order to broaden U.S. cooperative efforts to advance a practical and effective global response to climate change, the United States will expand outreach and support to the developing country community, utilizing a regional approach where feasible.

DIVERSITAS. DIVERSITAS recently established a new core project called bioGENESIS. BioGENESIS aims to develop tools for discovering, documenting, and navigating various aspects of biodiversity including elucidating the temporal and spatial aspects of how and why biodiversity evolved. The premise of the project is that study of development and evolution of biodiversity may eventually provide us with insights as to how populations and species may respond to a variety of perturbations, including global environmental change. In 2007, DIVERSITAS also conducted a series of international consultations on the development of an International Mechanism of Scientific Expertise on Biodiversity (IMoSEB). These consultations were designed to collect input from countries around the globe as to their needs and capabilities related to a global observation network for biodiversity (see <diversitas-international.org>).

Earth System Science Partnership. The ESSP—a cooperative, interdisciplinary international scientific effort (see <essp.org>)—continues to implement its four core projects on food, water, carbon, and human health in the context of global environmental change. Although the program is relatively new, scientists involved with its core projects are already producing excellent results and giving an international voice to the ESSP regarding assessments, carbon cycle science, and other areas.1,2,3 ESSP established a Scientific Committee that is intended to help guide the activities and overall direction of the organization, and is currently developing a business plan to guide the program and aid it in the realization of its mission and goals. ESSP, its partner programs, and other global environmental change networks (APN and IAI) were invited to participate in a meeting with the Chair of UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Science and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and a number of country representatives to explore how SBSTA might facilitate a more effective dialog between the Parties and the research programs.

Future Climate Change Research and Observations. GCOS, with WCRP and IGBP, cosponsored a workshop on Future Climate Change Research and Observations—held 4-6 October 2007, in Sydney, Australia—in which IPCC authors from Working Groups I and II and climate experts associated with the three sponsoring organizations participated. Based on a survey of IPCC authors’ assessment of gaps, research needs, and observational needs resulting from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the workshop participants produced a set of suggestions for priority areas in research and observations that could significantly advance the science of global environmental change. The recommendations include improving and augmenting connections between global circulation models and regional models. Also recognized was the need for the climate change modeling community to improve its communication and cooperation with the community that assesses climate impacts and designs adaptation measures. Data, particularly from developing countries, were recognized as a challenge especially in terms of testing regional models. A model intercomparison project, similar to the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP), was recommended as a way to advance the science of regional climate change.

Group on Earth Observations.Ministers and officials from over 100 governments and international organizations assembled 28-30 November 2007, in Cape Town, South Africa, to advance an internationally agreed plan for building a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Ministers continued to support the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Work Plan and noted the considerable progress made since the approval of GEO in 2005 and described in the GEO Report on Progress 2007. They confirmed that, inter alia:

• The sustained operation of terrestrial, oceanic, airborne, and space-based observation networks is critical for informed decisionmaking.
• Data interoperability is critical for the improvement and expansion of observational, modeling, data assimilation, and prediction capabilities.
• Continued research and development activities and coherent planning are essential for future observation systems.

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. IAI was recently reviewed by an external committee of distinguished international experts convened by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS; see here for the report). The review committee found that IAI has so far produced high-quality, world-class science, and that it is effective in achieving its goals because it has become more collaborative and its projects are increasingly being led by Latin American scientists. The review committee also found that the data and information system was not realizing its goal—that is, to serve science and society and inform action. Finally, the committee found that IAI science, while increasingly interdisciplinary, did not have a strong enough emphasis on the links between environmental change and human activity. The Committee recommended that IAI maintain and, where possible, improve upon its demonstrated dedication to scientific excellence; incorporate new research around regionally relevant topics, such as risk, vulnerability, and adaptation; continue to foster regional cooperation through synthesis and other activities; develop and implement a plan to upgrade the IAI data and information system; and incorporate new research that studies “feedbacks between human activities and global and regional environmental changes.”

IAI was granted funds from Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) for research on land use, hydrology, and climate in the La Plata Basin, and from the MacArthur Foundation for assessment of research and institutional needs to cope with the effects of climate change on Andean biodiversity. It is also receiving increasing recognition in the region, and was invited to present findings at meetings of the region’s Agriculture and Environment Ministers. See <iai.int> for more information.

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. IGBP (see <igbp.net>) has established a new core project called Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES), which evolved from the Global Analysis, Integrations, and Modeling Task Force (GAIM). AIMES, hosted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), focuses on quantifying the role of human perturbations of biogeochemical cycles, as well as on the overall function of biogeochemical cycles, including interactions and feedbacks with the physical climate system. IGBP, with WCRP, drafted and submitted a white paper to the IPCC regarding modeling strategies for future assessments. IGBP scientists also contributed significantly to international assessments (80 for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and seven co-authors of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment).

International Human Dimensions Programme. IHDP—jointly sponsored by ICSU, the International Social Science Council (ISSC), and the United Nations University (UNU)—released its Strategic Plan 2007-2015 (see <ihdp.org>). This new science plan emphasizes integration of the well-established ESSP core projects, cross-cutting themes, and advancing development of improved methodologies.

SyTem for Analysis, Research, and Training. START is making the transition from its first generation effort in research-driven capacity building to the next (see <www.start.org>). The first-generation effort was based on the largely disciplinary efforts of the research programs, while the second responds to the development of ESSP and its cross-cutting projects on food, water, health, and carbon, and to the entry of new partners, such as overseas development agencies. The second-generation effort also responds to the present and growing need, demonstrated by all of the programs and broadly in governments across the globe, to more closely connect global environmental change research to society at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. By doing so, it is expected that this research may meaningfully inform decisions and policy development with the ultimate objective being to advance progress on the Millennium Development Goals.

In 2007, START continued to synthesize results from the Assessments of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC) program. This effort has resulted in several synthesis books and an AIACC report to the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Final reports from 24 regional assessments have been or are expected to be completed and posted on START’s web site in 2008. START also administered numerous capacity-building activities including sponsoring regional science planning, conducting several institutes, and organizing a young scientists meeting. The program also sponsored Ph.D. fellowships, small grants for researchers in Africa and Asia, and provided many young scientist awards.

U.S.-Japan Liaison Group on Geosciences and Environment. During 2008, the United States hosts the 12th U.S.-Japan Workshop on Global Change Research. The theme for this workshop, in Boulder, Colorado, is “Longterm Projection, Near-term Prediction, Extreme Events Projection and Observations.” This activity brings together top modelers from the United States and Japan to discuss recent research accomplishments, identify gaps in knowledge, and identify unique ways in which U.S. and Japanese researchers may cooperate in order to advance the field.

World Climate Research Programme. In collaboration with IGBP and GCOS, in October 2007, WCRP convened a workshop to address the gaps and uncertainties identified in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in developing future observation and research requirements. The motivation for this workshop was to improve analyses of climate change risk and adaptation measures, reducing vulnerability to a changing climate. The third WCRP International Conference on Reanalysis took place in late January 2008, following an initiative by WCRP, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, and the University of Tokyo. A reanalysis is a comprehensive global, multi-decadal data set on a regular grid generated by the latest numerical modeling and assimilation techniques to synthesize together past observations. Reanalysis data have consistent technical quality over decades and provide vital context to many types of meteorological and climatological research and applications as well as provide important insights into the usefulness and value of the climate observing system. WCRP also convened the first Workshop on Seasonal Prediction in Barcelona, Spain, in June 2007. The main objective of the workshop was to make an assessment of current skill in seasonal prediction, with particular emphasis on surface temperature and precipitation. A WCRP Workshop on Global Prediction of the Cryosphere took place in October 2007, to identify gaps in current understanding of how sea ice, ice shelves, glaciers, snow cover, lake ice, river ice, permafrost, and the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica might change in future. These—and the four WCRP core projects CLIVAR, GEWEX, CLiC, and SPARC—are a few of the many WCRP international activities in support of climate research. See <wcrp.wmo.int> for more information.

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AND COOPERATION CHAPTER REFERENCES

1)  Raes, F. and R. Swart, 2007: Climate assessment: what’s next? Science, 318(5855), 1386, doi:10.1126/science.1147873.

2)  Piao, S., P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, P. Peylin, M. Reichstein, S. Luyssaert, H. Margolis, J. Fang, A. Barr, A. Chen, A. Grelle, D.Y. Hollinger, T. Laurila, A. Lindroth, A.D. Richardson, and T. Vesala, 2008: Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming. Nature, 451, 49-53, doi:10.1038/Nature06444.

3)  Canadell, J.G., C. Le Quéré, M.R. Raupach, C.B. Field, E.T. Buitenhuis, P. Ciais, T.J. Conway, N.P. Gillett, R.A. Houghton, and G. Marland, 2007: Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(47), 18866-18870.