| Leading indicators were weakening through September. | ||
| Period (Year, month) | 6-month annualized percentage change in composite index of 10 leading indicators | Recession 1=recession 0=no recession |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 01 | 4.28141 | 0 |
| 2000 02 | 2.66300 | 0 |
| 2000 03 | 3.55528 | 0 |
| 2000 04 | 4.26240 | 0 |
| 2000 05 | 1.40226 | 0 |
| 2000 06 | 0.52151 | 0 |
| 2000 07 | -1.03448 | 0 |
| 2000 08 | 0.00000 | 0 |
| 2000 09 | -0.86393 | 0 |
| 2000 10 | -2.90459 | 0 |
| 2000 11 | -2.41370 | 0 |
| 2000 12 | -4.28215 | 0 |
| 2001 01 | -3.61571 | 0 |
| 2001 02 | -3.96341 | 0 |
| 2001 03 | -4.97989 | 1 |
| 2001 04 | -4.14820 | 1 |
| 2001 05 | -2.26968 | 1 |
| 2001 06 | -0.35367 | 1 |
| 2001 07 | 0.00000 | 1 |
| 2001 08 | 1.06856 | 1 |
| 2001 09 | 0.17849 | 1 |
| 2001 10 | 0.35714 | 1 |
| 2001 11 | 1.78409 | 1 |
| 2001 12 | 4.48174 | 0 |
| 2002 01 | 5.74391 | 0 |
| 2002 02 | 6.64394 | 0 |
| 2002 03 | 9.29752 | 0 |
| 2002 04 | 9.28906 | 0 |
| 2002 05 | 8.81281 | 0 |
| 2002 06 | 5.80611 | 0 |
| 2002 07 | 4.17347 | 0 |
| 2002 08 | 3.45100 | 0 |
| 2002 09 | 2.74665 | 0 |
| 2002 10 | 2.74430 | 0 |
| 2002 11 | 2.54767 | 0 |
| 2002 12 | 3.05845 | 0 |
| 2003 01 | 3.57267 | 0 |
| 2003 02 | 2.87999 | 0 |
| 2003 03 | 2.87999 | 0 |
| 2003 04 | 3.73166 | 0 |
| 2003 05 | 4.89174 | 0 |
| 2003 06 | 5.72759 | 0 |
| 2003 07 | 6.90909 | 0 |
| 2003 08 | 8.11861 | 0 |
| 2003 09 | 9.67612 | 0 |
| 2003 10 | 10.83990 | 0 |
| 2003 11 | 9.15064 | 0 |
| 2003 12 | 9.25146 | 0 |
| 2004 01 | 9.00832 | 0 |
| 2004 02 | 8.46541 | 0 |
| 2004 03 | 9.89281 | 0 |
| 2004 04 | 7.82772 | 0 |
| 2004 05 | 7.77803 | 0 |
| 2004 06 | 6.75648 | 0 |
| 2004 07 | 6.07577 | 0 |
| 2004 08 | 5.90396 | 0 |
| 2004 09 | 3.04397 | 0 |
| 2004 10 | 2.88849 | 0 |
| 2004 11 | 2.87103 | 0 |
| 2004 12 | 3.62235 | 0 |
| 2005 01 | 2.39872 | 0 |
| 2005 02 | 2.84737 | 0 |
| 2005 03 | 1.49363 | 0 |
| 2005 04 | 1.64360 | 0 |
| 2005 05 | 0.59259 | 0 |
| 2005 06 | 1.47491 | 0 |
| 2005 07 | 1.62659 | 0 |
| 2005 08 | 1.02978 | 0 |
| 2005 09 | 0.59171 | 0 |
| 2005 10 | 2.07710 | 0 |
| 2005 11 | 3.87157 | 0 |
| 2005 12 | 2.05273 | 0 |
| 2006 01 | 3.23985 | 0 |
| 2006 02 | 2.05424 | 0 |
| 2006 03 | 4.61765 | 0 |
| 2006 04 | 2.64694 | 0 |
| 2006 05 | -0.28923 | 0 |
| 2006 06 | -0.43274 | 0 |
| 2006 07 | -1.71794 | 0 |
| 2006 08 | -1.15273 | 0 |
| 2006 09 | -1.72040 | 0 |
| Source: Conference Board
|