| A. Classification Table for Ordered Logit Model, 1988-1992 | ||||||||||||
| Spec. 1: Financial Acct. Variables (FA) |
Spec. 2: Stock Market Variables (SM) |
Specification 3: FA & SM Variables |
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| BOPEC Change |
Correct % |
No. |
Incorrect % |
No. |
Correct % |
No. |
Incorrect % |
No. |
Correct % |
No. |
Incorrect % |
No. |
| Downgrade | 81.3 |
(243) |
18.7 |
(56) |
70.2 |
(210) |
29.8 |
(89) |
83.3 |
(249) |
16.7 |
(50) |
| No Change | 77.5 |
(682) |
22.5 |
(198) |
74.2 |
(653) |
25.8 |
(277) |
78.3 |
(689) |
21.7 |
(191) |
| Upgrade | 55.2 |
(64) |
44.8 |
(52) |
37.9 |
(44) |
62.1 |
(72) |
51.7 |
(60) |
48.3 |
(56) |
| B. Classification Table for Ordered Logit Model, 1993–1995 |
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|
Spec. 1: Financial Acct. Variables (FA) |
Spec. 2: Stock Market Variables (SM) |
Specification 3: FA & SM Variables |
||||||||||
| BOPEC Change |
Correct % |
No. |
Incorrect % |
No. |
Correct % |
No. |
Incorrect % |
No. |
Correct % |
No. |
Incorrect % |
No. |
| Downgrade | 56.3 |
(27) |
43.8 |
(21) |
45.8 |
(22) |
54.2 |
(26) |
62.5 |
(30) |
37.5 |
(18) |
| No Change | 77.3 |
(419) |
22.7 |
(123) |
74.7 |
(405) |
25.3 |
(137) |
77.1 |
(418) |
22.9 |
(124) |
| Upgrade | 71.6 |
(141) |
28.4 |
(56) |
66.0 |
(130) |
34.0 |
(67) |
72.1 |
(142) |
27.9 |
(55) |
| C. Classification Table for Ordered Logit, 1996–2000 |
||||||||||||
Spec. 1: Financial Acct. Variables (FA) |
Spec. 2: Stock Market Variables (SM) |
Specification 3: FA & SM Variables |
||||||||||
| BOPEC Change |
Correct % |
No. |
Incorrect % |
No. |
Correct % |
No. |
Incorrect % |
No. |
Correct % |
No. |
Incorrect % |
No. |
| Downgrade | 66.7 |
(74) |
33.3 |
(37) |
58.6 |
(65) |
41.4 |
(46) |
66.7 |
(74) |
33.3 |
(37) |
| No Change | 64.3 |
(767) |
35.7 |
(426) |
58.2 |
(694) |
41.8 |
(499) |
67.1 |
(801) |
32.9 |
(392) |
| Upgrade | 80.4 |
(119) |
19.6 |
(129) |
79.1 |
(117) |
20.9 |
(31) |
81.1 |
(120) |
18.9 |
(28) |