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"Although we understand the basics of why CME's happen," he continued, "the details are still unclear. What makes the fields unstable? How rapid is the onset of the explosion? What's the detailed relationship between flares and CME's? All these questions are being actively researched, and we still can't predict CME events with any reasonable degree of accuracy."  Left:
A white light image of the sun from the Big Bear Solar Observatory,
captured less than 2 hours before the August 28, 1999 X-class
solar flare. Space weather forecasters at NOAA's Space Environment Center have been monitoring active region 8674, which produced the latest crop of solar flares and the CME, for over a week. Since it first rotated into view, the sunspot group exhibited a complex magnetic field structure, including "delta field configurations," indicative of likely flare activity. "Solar eruptions are clearly associated with sheared and twisted magnetic fields," continued Hathaway. "Whenever we see a 'delta configuration' -- that is, a sunspot where opposite magnetic poles are contained within the same penumbra -- it means something's probably about to go haywire. The trick to predicting the explosion lies in being able to look at the detailed geometry of the field around the sunspot group. Eventually, the experimental solar vector magnetograph facility here at Marshall and the vector magnetograph to be launched on the Solar-B mission may prove very useful for forecasting big eruptions.
For more information about space weather and current solar activity, please see NOAA's Space Environment Center web site at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/. Below: Solar x-ray emissions received by the GOES satellites indicate 3 major solar flares between August 28 and August 31, 1999. Image Credit: NOAA Space Environment Center.  |
Left:
This movie spanning 6 hours of actual time shows recent images
of the Earth's auroral region taken from space by the Ultraviolet
Imager (UVI) Instrument on board the POLAR spacecraft. New movies
are generated every 6 hours. Hit reload for the latest animation
or visit the 
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Related Stories Surfing Magnetic Waves in the Solar Atmosphere July 8, 1999. How the Solar Wind Gets Up to Speed Solar Flares Show Their True Colors June 2, 1999. New research points to a common mechanism for spectral behavior in Solar Flares "Cool" microflares could be solar hot spots May 31, 1999. Secret of coronal heating may be multitude of tiny blasts. Finding the smoking gun before it fires March 9, 1999. Physicists discover a new tool for predicting solar eruptions. Recent stories on the August '99 Eclipse Decrypting the Eclipse - August 6, 1999, scientists around the world explore the possible and mysterious effect of eclipses on the motion of Foucault's pendulum. There goes the Sun - August 5, 1999, features general information about the August 11, 1999 solar eclipse, including the effect of eclipses on the birds and the bees, and eclipses on other planets. Audio eclipse may fill the sky - August 4, 1999 story on investigations of ionization and radio propagation in Earth's atmosphere during the eclipse Peering through a Hole in the Sky - June 17, 1999 story on exotic gravity measurements to be carried out during the eclipse |
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