13 March 2009
U.S. Institute Helps Developing Nations Put Climate Data to Use
Core funding from NOAA helps build resilience in adapting to climate change
Washington — As climate variability drives alterations in the physical environment, it is increasingly critical that all nations — especially the most vulnerable — are able to understand and harness climate and weather data in their efforts to adapt to a changing planet.
Since 1996, a research institute established as a cooperative agreement between the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Columbia University in New York City has embraced this mission. (See “U.S. Agencies Plan National Climate Service Structure, Products.”)
Twenty miles (32 kilometers) north of Manhattan Island, New York, at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), 50 scientists and 20 staff members work with U.S. agencies and international organizations to help meteorological services in developing nations better understand, anticipate and manage the effects of seasonal climate fluctuations. IRI is part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.
“IRI has been a pioneer as an institution at the interface between climate science and society,” IRI Director-General Steve Zebiak told America.gov.
CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
IRI scientists have expertise in agriculture, food security, water resources, health, natural resource management, climate and weather.
Their wide-ranging projects address early warning systems for malaria in Eritrea, climate variability management in South and Southeast Asia, the impacts of water resource management in Brazil, climate-based early warning for food security in West Africa, weather insurance contracts in Central America and much more.
Core funding for such projects comes from NOAA, but IRI also receives funding from NASA for environmental monitoring and climate risk management, the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation for research efforts and the U.S. Agency for International Development.
There is growing recognition, Zebiak said, “that the issue of climate risk is not just an environmental issue, but a very serious development issue.”
In 2008, IRI received a $900,000 multiyear grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the company behind the world's most popular search engine, to improve the use of forecasts, rainfall data and other climate information in East Africa, and to link weather and climate experts with health specialists to better predict infectious disease outbreaks. (See “Google.org to Help Scientists Forecast Disease Outbreaks.”)
Internationally, the institute works in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); the World Health Organization, for which IRI serves as a collaborating center on early warning systems for malaria and other climate-sensitive diseases; the United Nations Development Programme; the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent; and others.
IRI arose, Zebiak said, because “there was a need to have an institution that was not only trying to advance the scientific and technical aspects of producing useful information, but doing what turns out to be the harder step of trying to figure out if and how that information can be made useful in practice for societies.”
THE HARDER STEP
Not long after IRI was established, NOAA began working with the institute and international partners — including WMO, the European Network for Research in Global Climate Change and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office — to hold the first climate outlook forums in Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and Southeast Asia.
The forums involve scientists and representatives of university and government forecasting organizations, national meteorological services and international forecasting centers. At each meeting, the climate scientists fashion seasonal forecasts for their regions.
Before the forums were established, regions received conflicting forecasts from universities, national meteorological services and international centers. No one knew which forecast to believe.
“Reliable forecasts are one of the first steps toward advanced planning, whether for avoiding adverse outcomes or taking advantage of beneficial outcomes,” Simon Mason, head of IRI’s Climate Program, told America.gov. “An early warning of a good or bad rainfall season provides a potentially massive opportunity to prepare in advance for unusual climate conditions.”
The forums are designed to improve the scientific quality of the regional forecasts and improve the way the forecasts are communicated.
Traditional forecasts are “quite complex and fairly abstract and difficult to understand,” Mason said. “We’ve been working with media in the regions to help translate the forecasts into understandable language.”
BIG ACHIEVEMENT
Working with the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development, IRI recently evaluated 10 years of climate outlook forum results from West Africa, the Greater Horn of Africa and southern Africa to determine whether the forecasts correctly indicated increased or decreased changes in dry or wet conditions.
According to the assessment, forecasts have been skillful, Mason said, but some consistent errors in the forecasts need attention, including a tendency to overpredict normal rainfall and underpredict dry conditions.
“I can report that these consistent errors were fully recognized by the participants and the forecast for the coming season has been corrected in response to those evaluations,” Mason said.
“It’s not going to sound exciting to Joe Smith on the street,” he added, “but in terms of the climate community, this is quite a big achievement.”
More information about the International Research Institute for Climate and Society is available at the institute’s Web site.
