NIBRS
and NCIC Data used in the CIUS, 2000
Crime
in the United States, 2000
Section V of Crime in the
United States, 2000 presents an analysis of motor vehicle
theft and recovery in the United States for the year 1999.
The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and
National Crime Information Center (NCIC) data are used
in this study, which analyzes and tabulates motor vehicle
theft and recovery by day of the week, month of the year,
and location of the incident.
The results for both data
sets (NIBRS and NCIC) show that by the day of the week,
Friday (15.69 percent for NIBRS and 14.97 percent for
NCIC) and Saturday (16.13 percent for NIBRS and 14.24
percent for NCIC) are the two days with the highest frequency
of motor vehicle theft, and Monday (15.92 percent for
NIBRS and 16.08 percent for NCIC) and Tuesday (15.74 percent
for NIBRS and 16.42 percent for NCIC) are the days that
show the highest recovery rates. The overall recovery
rates of 53.10 percent and 51.43 percent for NIBRS and
NCIC, respectively, exhibit striking similarities between
these two data systems. Although the collection and use
of NIBRS data in this study are limited to18 states (currently
22 states report NIBRS data), the rates at which cars
are stolen and recovered are similar to the rates in NCIC,
which collects data from the 50 states, the District of
Columbia, and U.S. Territories. This significant finding
supports that NIBRS at its current level of operation
can be considered as a nationally representative data
set, at least in the area of motor vehicle theft. It also
confirms the reliability and validity of the NIBRS data.
Based on the NIBRS data,
higher rates of motor vehicle theft occur in the second
half of the year than in the first half. The higher rates
of motor vehicle theft during the warmer summer months
may be attributable to the same "seasonal" effect
associated with other offenses. The fourth-quarter increase
may be assigned in part to the availability of new model
automobiles and in part to the holiday season. Most of
the vehicles are recovered, if they are ever recovered,in
the same months in which they were stolen. In addition
to day of the week and month of the year, location of
the motor vehicle theft incident is another factor that
influences the rate of motor vehicle theft. The study
shows that most of the incidents took place at such locations
as residence/home (35.31 percent), parking lot/garage
(22.75 percent), and highway/road/alley (17.96 percent).
The survival analysis model
employed in this study reveals the patterns and chance
of recovering the stolen cars based on the number of days
elapsed since the theft incident. Based on the NIBRS data
used in the analysis, 57.08 percent of the stolen motor
vehicles are recovered in the first day and 79.43 percent
are recovered during the first six days, which indicates
that the first few days after the theft are critical in
recovering the stolen vehicles. The longer the vehicle
is in the possession of the criminals, the less the chance
of recovery.
In terms of clearance, the
study demonstrates that the age group between 12 to 17
has the largest number of motor vehicle theft arrests
for both sexes and all races. The next highest age group
arrested involves people between 18 and 24 years old.
The total percentage of clearance for recovered motor
vehicles is only 17.15 percent. The low rate of clearance
can be attributed to the nature of the crime, its volume,
and the degree of difficulty in solving this particular
crime.