Liu Yuzhong, North China Sea Branch, S.O.A

Abstract

In 2001, State Oceanic Administration decided to carry out the experiment for the operation of red tide monitoring and forecast in Bo Hai. From July to September, the North China Sea Branch gained great success in red tide short-term forecast by the use of large quantity of ecology monitoring data. In the last ten-day of August, the tests of calamity prediction and calamity elimination were carried out in cultivation areas of the north part of Yellow Sea. There are 39 voyages of ecology investigation operated in the two experimental areas. And 72-hour short-term forecast, including breakout forecast and developing trend forecast, were issued for 35 times. The accuracy rate reaches to 60%-70%. The successful prediction of red tide calamity brought prominent economic benefits to cultivation. During the period of experiments, a series of viable investigation modes and technology patterns were established. And at the same time, plentiful ecology monitoring data of red tide prophase and the data during the corresponding period of red tides breakout were accumulated for the research on red tide forecast.