PROJECT TITLE: Chaos in Air-traffic Management
TECHNICAL ABSTRACT (LIMIT 200 WORDS)
As air traffic control evolves toward a more automated system, with decreasing direct control by air traffic controllers, a serious issue arises as to the likelihood that chaotic behavior will occur, and the likelihood that this chaotic behavior will result in unexpected system behavior such as sudden increases in traffic density and traffic delays. This proposal details an analytical approach to these problems based on what is called the Huberman Hogg (HH) equations developed by Bernardo Huberman and Tadd Hogg. Even the initial results given in this proposal show that chaotic behavior will result in the presence of information delays and information errors. This proposal also shows that in traffic modeling, even in the case of stable behavior with no apparent cause, there will be sudden bursts of instability. This has significant implications for air traffic control. Under the work proposed we will investigate these issues both analytically and through simulation. We will also code and test a software agent-based air traffic control system for a small set of ATC issues, and we will evaluate both the performance and possible chaotic behavior of this system.
POTENTIAL COMMERCIAL APPLICATIONS
Planning, scheduling, and resource allocation (PSR) software is in great demand, with companies with products in this area selling for as much as 50 times their total installed base. IAI has been working on PSR software using distributed autonomous agents, and the work herein proposed will investigate an important new application of that work. Additionally, the potential problem of chaotic performance of distributed decision making systems is a fundamental problem which has not seriously been investigated, and important commercial software tools to address this problem could result from the work herein proposed.
NAME AND ADDRESS OF PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
Dr. Leonard Haynes
Intelligent Automation, Inc.
2 Research Place, Suite 202
Rockville , MD 20850
NAME AND ADDRESS OF OFFEROR
Intelligent Automation, Inc.
2 Research Place, Suite 202
Rockville , MD 20850