Project Title:

307                                                                       KSC
92-1-13.01-0054                                                   NAS10-11981
Comprehensive Predictor of Lightning Strikes by
Place and Time
Ktaadn, Inc.
1340 Centre Street, Suite 202
Newton, MA  02159
Donald S. Frankel                                    (617-527-0054)

Abstract:

     This project will evaluate an innovative neural-network,
natural lightning predictor that uses new types of meteorological
parameters (e.g. temperature, humidity) as inputs and training
data histories from several epochs earlier than the 'current'
epoch. The predictor will indicate where future lightning strikes
will occur in time (T=0, 15 min., 30 min., 1 hr., 2 hrs.) over 16
different (5 x 5 nmi.) 'tiles' covering the Kennedy Space Center.
The predictor's feasibility will be demonstrated with its
increased probability of predicting a lightning strike above the
0.50 value (with a probability of false alarm < 0.001) over the
current state-of-the-art system described by Frankel and Draper
(1990). Based on Phase I results, will be made for a comprehensive
(natural and initiated) lightning predictor will be recommended
for the Phase II pre-commercialization prototype.

Potential Commercial Application:

Potential Commercial Applications:  A maker of tactical weather
stations has indicated strong interest in the predictor's
commercial possibilities, and the utility industry has also
expressed interest. With the expertise gained in this project, a
prediction capability for agricultural crops, rainfall, forest
fires, and protection of commercial airports could be developed.

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