Flood Potential Outlook

000
FGUS74 KSHV 171913
ESFSHV
TXC001-005-073-225-241-347-365-373-401-403-405-419-423-455-457-
182359-


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
139 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN OF EAST TEXAS...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) OFFICE IN SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN TEXAS.  AHPS ENABLES THE
NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS
ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE MUD CREEK NEAR JACKSONVILLE
TEXAS FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE MUD
CREEK WILL RISE ABOVE 8.2 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
           VALID FOR SEPTEMBER 18 - DECEMBER 18 2008


     LOCATION      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

MUD CREEK
 JACKSONVILLE 7E    9  7.0  7.3  7.6  7.9  8.2  8.5  9.3  9.9 11.1
EAST FORK ANGELINA RIVER
 CUSHING 4N        10  7.4  8.4  9.0  9.5  9.9 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.2
ANGELINA RIVER
 ALTO 8E           19  7.5  9.4 12.7 16.0 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.1
 LUFKIN 8N         10  7.9  8.8 10.2 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.9 14.6
ATTOYAC BAYOU
 CHIRENO 3E        14 11.1 12.0 14.7 16.7 17.9 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.5
AYISH BAYOU
 SAN AUGUSTINE 10S 12  6.2  8.8  8.3 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.9 14.6
NECHES RIVER
 NECHES 4NE        12 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.5 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.2
 ALTO 8SW          16 12.9  8.8 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.4 17.8 19.0
 DIBOLL 4S         12 10.1 11.5 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.4 14.3 14.8 15.8
 ROCKLAND          26  8.0  9.7 10.3 12.2 13.6 16.2 19.7 22.5 27.0


LOCATION       90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
-------------  ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---
LK PALESTINE 345.8 345.8 345.8 345.8 345.8 345.9 346.0 346.1 346.8


THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS PROBABILITIES COMPUTED
USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AND STREAM FLOW DATA.  THESE PROBABILITIES ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.  BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT THIS URL:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SHV
(INTERNET ADDRESS URL IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$

VIII.