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» Emergency Managers Page If you do not have Javascript enabled, a list of links will appear below. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FLUS42 KJAX 080848 HWOJAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 448 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-090900- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY- ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE- JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY- INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN- COASTAL CAMDEN- 448 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX. $$ JDS [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FXUS62 KJAX 081353 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 953 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 ...HOT WEEKEND COMING UP... .PUBLIC UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING VERIFIES TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THESE FEATURES WILL CAP ACTIVITY TODAY FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES PLANNED. && .AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3 KFT. && .MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE HOLDING FIRM SOUTH OF AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO NE AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THRU MON AND MAY REQUIRE CAUTION HEADLINES OFFSHORE. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && .PREVIOUS PUBLIC...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY HEIGHTS WILL RISE TODAY AS MEAN LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ENSUANT SUBSIDENCE WILL EFFECTIVELY WARM UP AND DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY PROMISES WIDESPREAD MAXES IN THE LOW 90S...WITH SOME MID 90 READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY SUBSTANTIALLY BY TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL FACE QUITE AN UPHILL BATTLE...CANNOT ALTOGETHER RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES/INTERACTIONS...LESS THAN 15 PERCENT CHANCE ("SILENT POPS"). A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20%) WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ENOUGH MOMENTUM FOR THE FRONT TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR COOLER/DRIER AIR. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS SLOWER AND ACTUALLY STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A GFS SOLUTION. && $$ ECZ This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 NWUS52 KJAX 052031 LSRJAX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 431 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0356 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE AMBROSE 31.55N 82.97W 05/05/2009 COFFEE GA EMERGENCY MNGR TREE REPORTED DOWN NEAR BIRDSONG ROAD AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 32. TIME OF EVENT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY. && $$ ARS
[Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ABNT20 KNHC 010358 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008 CORRECTED SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADER TO READ MIADSAAT FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS THE 2008 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON APPROACHES ITS CONCLUSION... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2009. SHOULD ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WOULD BE ISSUED...AS NEEDED. SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WONT41 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 WTUS82 KJAX 060248 HLSJAX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1048 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008 ...HANNA MOVES AWAY FROM COASTAL WATERS... AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-060400- /O.CAN.KJAX.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- 1048 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... ...NEW INFORMATION... WITH HANNA MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR MARINE INTERESTS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL WATERS...OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BEYOND 20NM OFFSHORE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS OF 7 TO 12 FEET THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE REGARDING TROPICAL STORM HANNA. PLEASE REFER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON MARINE HAZARDS. $$ WOLF [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 AXNT20 KNHC 081051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-22W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 23W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY N-NW FLOW ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...S TO SE WINDS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE N GULF COAST. WINDS ARE STRONGEST...15-20 KT...OVER THE WRN WATERS ACCORDING TO BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT SLIDES SWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND NEARBY WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-77W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS BEING FUELED BY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO THE E OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. STRONG ELY TRADES AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OVER HISPANIOLA AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E-NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY TRANQUIL THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE SHALLOW MOISTURE FETCH IS OBSERVED STREAMING IN FROM THE ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. ONE OF THESE IS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 78W AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 72W-76W. THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS S OF 23N BETWEEN 57W-70W...N OF THE ERN GREATER ANTILLES ISLANDS. INSTABILITY AND DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND TO THE E OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO... THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEARBY WATERS TO THE N. REFER TO THE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP LAYERED CLOUDINESS SUPPRESSED BY A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC WHERE THE FLOW IS HIGHLY CONFLUENT. OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC... CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ E OF 22W AND OVER AFRICA ENHANCED BY BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 16N5W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD TO ABOUT 50W...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SAL PRODUCT. $$ HUFFMAN
[Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ACUS01 KWNS 081646 SWODY1 SPC AC 081642 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND NRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE IA AREA... ...TN/LOWER OH VALLEY... LONG LIVED BOW ECHO...MOVING EWD AT 60 KT...WAS APPROACHING THE MS RIVER AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MOSTLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING WITH TIME...GIVEN THE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE..SOMETIMES EXTREME. WIND AND HAIL IS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ROTATING BOW HEADS. ...NRN TX/SERN OK/AR/NRN LA... COLD FRONT AT MID MORNING EXTENDED FROM SERN KS SWWD INTO WRN TX NEAR LBB. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TO NEAR A SGF-ADM-MAF LINE BY 23Z. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700 MB...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE NO REAL DISCERNABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MODELS DEPICT A SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN AND WEST OF THE ARKLATEX. ALL OPERATIONAL/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN OK/NRN TX AFTER 22Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM INDICATE VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...CAROLINAS..... REMNANT MCS FROM WRN NC INTO NERN GA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD KY INTO OVER KY/TN WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING A MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS...2000 J/KG MLCAPE AS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE LOWER 6 KM MAY SUPPORT A LINEAR SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...IA/NWRN IL AND SWRN WI... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEB/SD WILL TRACK EWD TO NEAR THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 00Z. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -18 TO -22C...MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET MAX SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..IMY/GRAMS.. 05/08/2009 [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ACUS02 KWNS 080542 SWODY2 SPC AC 080540 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NRN NC... ...NC AND MID-ATLANTIC... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE NERN STATES SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SW ONTARIO AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A MOIST AXIS SHOULD EXIST WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. BY 21Z SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MARYLAND SWD ACROSS VA INTO NRN NC SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE IN AREAS WITH MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT LINE-SEGMENTS. ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY... ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS TN...AR...SE OK AND CNTRL TX. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...NEW CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AT 21Z SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT 30 TO 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE ARKLATEX SWWD INTO CNTRL TX WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN OK EWD ACROSS AR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED BUT MAY CONTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2009 [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ACUS03 KWNS 080709 SWODY3 SPC AC 080707 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...GULF COAST STATES AND WRN SC... ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS... ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM NCNTRL TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY BECOMING NUMEROUS IN SOME AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN MOST AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F...MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST. ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS SFC TEMPS WARM OVER WRN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -24 TO -27C. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AROUND PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2009 This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ACUS11 KWNS 081609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081608 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AR AND S CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266... VALID 081608Z - 081715Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266 CONTINUES. PRIMARY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT HAS SHIFTED INTO TORNADO WATCH 267. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR MOSTLY HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST IN REMAINING PARTS WW 266...MAINLY ACROSS NCNTRL AND NW AR NEXT HOUR. WW 266 WILL EXPIRE AT 17Z. UNLESS STORMS ALONG TRAILING END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION...ANOTHER WW FARTHER SOUTH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. DAMAGING BOW ECHO HAS SHIFTED EAST OF WW 266 AND IS LOCATED FROM SERN MO SWWD THROUGH NWRN AR. TRAILING END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS WWD INTO NCNTRL AND NWRN AR AND IS MOVING SWD. MESOSCALE LIFT PRODUCED BY A STRONG 45-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE SWLY 850-750 MB FLOW IS RESULTING IN NEWD TRANSPORT OF WARM AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 23C AT THE BASE OF THE EML. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2009 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36129445 36549359 36689340 37019316 37399272 37329147 36259164 35249420 35669482 36129445
[Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FNUS52 KJAX 080817 FWFJAX FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 .DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S WITH SCARCELY A CHANCE OF RAIN. DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT NEXT WEEK AS MAX TEMPERATURES FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND ANY DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL BE BRIEF. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GAZ153-154-165-166-082330- INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN- 417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TODAY TONIGHT SAT CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CHANCE PRECIP (%) 20 0 0 WEATHER TYPE TSTMS NONE NONE TEMP 92 67 93 RH (%) 38 93 36 20FT WND MPH (AM) SW 5 SW 6 20FT WND MPH (PM) S 10 S 8 S 10 G15 PRECIP DURATION 1 PRECIP BEGIN 2 PM PRECIP END 8 PM PRECIP AMOUNT 0.01 0.00 0.00 LAL 2 1 1 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6100 400 6100 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 15 SW 13 W 17 DISPERSION INDEX 63 5 67 MAX LVORI 5 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. $$ FLZ024-025-032-033-082330- NASSAU-DUVAL-CLAY-ST JOHNS- 417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TODAY TONIGHT SAT CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0 WEATHER TYPE NONE NONE NONE TEMP 92 66 93 RH (%) 35 91 36 20FT WND MPH (AM) SW 5 SW 6 20FT WND MPH (PM) S 9 S 7 S 10 PRECIP DURATION PRECIP BEGIN PRECIP END PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6600 300 6400 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 15 SW 10 SW 15 DISPERSION INDEX 62 3 58 MAX LVORI 5 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. $$ FLZ038-082330- FLAGLER- 417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TODAY TONIGHT SAT CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0 WEATHER TYPE NONE NONE NONE TEMP 93 68 93 RH (%) 35 89 37 20FT WND MPH (AM) S 4 SW 5 20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 8 S 6 SE 9 PRECIP DURATION PRECIP BEGIN PRECIP END PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6700 300 6600 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 10 S 9 SW 9 DISPERSION INDEX 60 3 41 MAX LVORI 4 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 90. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. $$ FLZ036-037-040-082330- ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION- 417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TODAY TONIGHT SAT CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0 WEATHER TYPE NONE NONE NONE TEMP 93 64 94 RH (%) 31 95 33 20FT WND MPH (AM) SW 4 SW 4 20FT WND MPH (PM) SW 8 S 4 SW 9 PRECIP DURATION PRECIP BEGIN PRECIP END PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6900 200 6700 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 15 SW 5 SW 13 DISPERSION INDEX 61 1 56 MAX LVORI 6 REMARKS...RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR UP TO FOUR HOURS. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS AROUND 90. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. $$ FLZ020>023-030-031-035-082330- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST- 417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TODAY TONIGHT SAT CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0 WEATHER TYPE NONE NONE NONE TEMP 92 63 93 RH (%) 34 98 35 20FT WND MPH (AM) SW 4 SW 4 20FT WND MPH (PM) SW 10 SW 5 SW 9 PRECIP DURATION PRECIP BEGIN PRECIP END PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6300 200 6200 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 17 SW 5 W 15 DISPERSION INDEX 68 2 61 MAX LVORI 6 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. $$ GAZ132>136-149>152-162>164-082330- COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE- BRANTLEY-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON- 417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TODAY TONIGHT SAT CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0 WEATHER TYPE NONE NONE NONE TEMP 91 65 92 RH (%) 36 95 34 20FT WND MPH (AM) SW 5 W 5 G16 20FT WND MPH (PM) SW 9 G16 SW 6 SW 9 G18 PRECIP DURATION PRECIP BEGIN PRECIP END PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 2 1 1 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6300 200 6100 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 18 SW 7 W 18 DISPERSION INDEX 68 3 68 MAX LVORI 6 REMARKS...NONE. .FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. $$ MKT This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 WWUS82 KJAX 251855 AAA RFWJAX URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 255 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2009 FLZ020>022-035-036-040-252300- /O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0053.000000T0000Z-090425T2300Z/ HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-MARION- 255 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2009 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR DURATIONS OF 4 TO 5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. DISPERSION VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING. && $$ ARS [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FNUS72 KJAX 081612 SMFJAX NORTHEAST FLORIDA DISPERSION FORECAST UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 FLZ024-025-032-033-082000- NASSAU-DUVAL-CLAY-ST JOHNS- 1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TONIGHT CLOUD COVER MCLEAR 20FT WND MPH (PM) S 7 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 10 DISPERSION INDEX 3 MAX LVORI 5 $$ FLZ038-082000- FLAGLER- 1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TONIGHT CLOUD COVER MCLEAR 20FT WND MPH (PM) S 6 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) S 9 DISPERSION INDEX 3 MAX LVORI 4 $$ FLZ036-037-040-082000- ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION- 1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TONIGHT CLOUD COVER MCLEAR 20FT WND MPH (PM) S 4 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 200 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 5 DISPERSION INDEX 1 MAX LVORI 6 $$ FLZ020>023-030-031-035-082000- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST- 1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 TONIGHT CLOUD COVER MCLEAR 20FT WND MPH (PM) SW 5 MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 200 TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 5 DISPERSION INDEX 2 MAX LVORI 6 $$ [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FZUS52 KJAX 081412 CWFJAX COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1012 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 60 NM AMZ400-082030- SYNOPSIS FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 60 NM- 1012 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY. $$ AMZ450-452-454-082030- ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- 1012 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 .REST OF TODAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. .TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. .SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. .SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. .MONDAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. $$ AMZ470-472-474-082030- ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- 1012 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 .REST OF TODAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. .TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. .SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. .SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. $$ ECZ [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FZUS52 KJAX 080830 SRFJAX SURF ZONE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 430 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-082300- NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE... ST AUGUSTINE...PALM COAST...BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS 430 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: LOW. RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAK BUT MAY POSE A DANGER TO POOR SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES...INLETS...AND PIERS. KNOW HOW TO SWIM AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. WIND: SOUTHWEST 1O MPH BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SURF: BREAKERS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 FEET. WATER TEMPERATURE: MID TO UPPER 70S. UV INDEX: 11...IN THE EXTREME RANGE. OUTLOOK: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. $$ MKT This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FZUS72 KJAX 070136 MWSJAX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 936 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009 AMZ450-452-470-070230- 936 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS... AT 934 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...10 NM EAST OF FERNANDINA BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...AND A FEW CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES. YOUR BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR...BUT IF YOU ARE CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER...STAY BELOW DECK AND AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS. LAT...LON 3115 8113 3091 8090 3055 8128 3070 8139 $$ SHASHY This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 WHUS52 KJAX 070026 SMWJAX AMZ450-470-070130- /O.NEW.KJAX.MA.W.0045.090507T0026Z-090507T0130Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SPECIAL MARINE WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 826 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A * SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS... COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS... * UNTIL 930 PM EDT * AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER 5 NM NORTHWEST OF JEKYLL ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY... UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES. && LAT...LON 3125 8096 3121 8092 3098 8145 3108 8154 3111 8151 3115 8156 3119 8155 3120 8153 3116 8152 3112 8145 3118 8147 3123 8142 3114 8139 3121 8132 3125 8133 3123 8130 3129 8128 TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 243DEG 20KT 3112 8147 $$ SHASHY This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 WHUS42 KJAX 190824 CFWJAX COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 424 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009 FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-200000- /O.NEW.KJAX.CF.S.0006.090419T1000Z-090420T0000Z/ NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN- 424 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009 ...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES... LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH TO CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A LOW TIDE LATE IN THE MORNING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RISK. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. SWIM ONLY AT BEACHES WHERE LIFEGUARDS ARE PRESENT. A HIGHER THAN NORMAL RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ANY UPDATES OR WARNINGS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX. $$ MKT
[Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FGUS52 KALR 081450 RVFJAX RIVER FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA GA FORECASTS INCLUDE FUTURE RAINFALL IN 6 HOUR INCREMENTS 1049 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009 : : FORECAST ISSUED BY FL- SUWANNEE FORECASTER : :************************************************************************* :THREE RIVER ESTATES - Santa Fe River :FLOOD STAGE 19.0 ACTION STAGE 16.0 : :LATEST STAGE 16.91 FT AT 800 AM EDT ON 0508 .ER TREF1 0508 E DC200905081049/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :24HR QPF APPLIED 8AM 2PM 8PM 2AM .E1 :0508: / 16.8/ 16.6/ 16.5 .E2 :0509: / 16.3/ 16.2/ 16.0/ 15.8 .E3 :0510: / 15.7/ 15.5/ 15.3/ 15.2 .E4 :0511: / 15.0/ 14.9/ 14.7/ 14.6 .E5 :0512: / 14.5/ 14.4/ 14.3/ 14.2 .E6 :0513: / 14.0 :6HR QPF VALUES 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00 :*********************************************************************** :COMMENT : : : .AR ALR 0508 E Dt200905081049/YIDRZ 10: tw : :...END OF MESSAGE... $$ This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FGUS72 KJAX 131757 CCA ESFJAX FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-083-089-107-109-121-125- GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-061000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 157 PM EST FRI MAR 13 2009 ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA... THERE IS A BELOW NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING. ...EXISTING CONDITIONS... MILD LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THE PAST 6 MONTHS. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOIL MOISTURE HAS NOT RECHARGED SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE UP FOR ONGOING DEFICITS. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING LOW TO VERY LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. STREAMFLOWS HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...A RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM. IN FACT...THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY IS IN MINOR FLOOD. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS...STREAMFLOWS WILL QUICKLY GO BACK TO A BELOW NORMAL BASEFLOW. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES NEAR MODERATE TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PORTIONS OF MARION COUNTY ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH JUNE. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF MORE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARIZATION... WITH THE END OF THE MAIN FLOOD SEASON WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT MONTH...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. BASED ON HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN LA NINA CYCLES...THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST INDICATES A BELOW NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING FLOOD SEASON ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. && INFORMATION USED TO COMPLETE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITES: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAX WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC $$ JDS
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