DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 732 AM CST THU JAN 8 2009 ...LITTLE CHANGE IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS... SYNOPSIS... THE HOLIDAY SEASON FAILED TO BRING THE GIFT OF WIDESPREAD AND MUCH NEEDED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVED SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS... RAINFALL TOTALS WERE INSUFFICIENT TO MAKE ANY IMPACTS IN THE ONGOING TEXAS DROUGHT. IN FACT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE DISAPPOINTING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (MOST NOTABLY ON JANUARY 5 AND JANUARY 6)...AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. DESPITE THE FACT THAT LATE DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY ON AVERAGE HAVE LOW DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS...RECEIVED RAINFALL WAS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID FOR JANUARY 6 2009 SHOWS THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS... EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN VICTORIA AND GOLIAD COUNTIES...GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 (LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE)... SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA AND EXTEND FROM THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MCMULLEN COUNTY...THEN ALONG AND EAST OF A THREE RIVERS TO MATHIS TO ANNAVILLE LINE...MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NUECES COUNTY BUT NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE WEST OF AN EDNA TO PLACEDO TO AUSTWELL LINE TO THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE...ESSENTIALLY NOW INCLUDING ALL BUT VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF EASTERN REFUGIO AND ARANSAS COUNTIES. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREA...AND ARE LOCATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES...THEN INCLUDE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF JIM WELLS COUNTY NORTH OF BEN BOLT...THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF DUVAL COUNTY NORTH OF BENEVIDES...THE REMAINDER OF MCMULLEN COUNTY...AND MOST OF LA SALLE COUNTY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ARTESIA WELLS. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST EAST OF THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINE EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF CALHOUN COUNTY. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREA...AND INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CALHOUN COUNTY. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE...AS OF JANUARY 7 BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...BEE...SAN PATRICIO...JIM WELLS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. ALSO...BURN BANS HAVE BEEN INSTITUTED FOR NUECES...VICTORIA AND DUVAL COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN THE OTHER COUNTIES NOT IN BURN BANS SHOULD CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO ENSURE THAT BURNING IS ALLOWED. ALSO...RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS READILY AVAILABLE SHOULD AN UNWANTED FIRE BEGIN...ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES WHEN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE BELOW 50 PERCENT AND WINDS ARE HIGH. TO CONSERVE WATER...RESIDENTS SHOULD WATER THEIR LAWNS ONLY WHEN ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...AS GRASSES ARE BECOMING DORMANT WITH THE COOLER WEATHER. IF YOU MUST WATER YOUR LAWN...IT IS BEST TO DO SO BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 AM. WATERING LAWNS AND LANDSCAPES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTS IN LESS SOIL PERCOLATION AND GREATER EVAPORATION. AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY GRAPHIC FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS...WITH THE HIGHEST DEFICITS OVER THE VICTORIA AREA. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT FOR JANUARY 7 2009...WINTER CROPS WERE MOISTURE STRESSED. SOME FERTILIZER APPLICATIONS WERE BEING MADE TO ROW CROP LAND. LIVESTOCK WERE STILL BEING SUPPLEMENTED WITH HAY AND PROTEIN...WITH HAY BEING ACTIVELY TRADED. FINALLY...SOME FARMERS WERE STILL DELAYING THE PLANTING OF SOME WINTER CROPS DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT SOIL MOISTURE. FIRE DANGER HAZARDS. USING A FIVE DAY AVERAGE...A MODERATE FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER ALL OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...EXCEPT FOR ARANSAS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES (LOWER FIRE DANGER). AT TIMES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN ELEVATED DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE WINDS...WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING (BUT NOT EXCEEDING) RED FLAG CRITERION. AS OF JANUARY 7 2009 ALL COUNTIES HAVE INDICES ABOVE 500 (BUT BELOW 700)...WITH ONLY THE COUNTIES OF CALHOUN... VICTORIA...KLEBERG AND WEBB HAVING INDICES BELOW 600. INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO EVADE SOUTH TEXAS. AS WINTER CONTINUES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONTS COULD BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. RIVER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS. EXCEPT FOR THE RIO GRANDE AND THE LAREDO WATER SUPPLY...RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH RESERVOIRS CONTINUING TO FALL. AS OF JANUARY 7 2009...THE LEVEL AT CHOKE CANYON DAM WAS 215.2 FEET (81.2 PERCENT CAPACITY)...WITH LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AT 88.9 FEET (65.5 PERCENT CAPACITY). THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY NOW STANDS AT 77.0 PERCENT...WHICH IS 0.3 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN ON DECEMBER 25 2008. THE POOL LEVEL AT COLETO CREEK WAS AT 94.7 FEET...ABOUT THE SAME AS TWO WEEKS AGO. CANYON LAKE FELL BY ONLY 0.1 FEET...WITH THE LEVEL NOW AT 897.9 FEET...THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE DAM WAS CREATED. THE RIVER LEVEL ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA HAS REMAINED AROUND 6.0 FEET OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...CORRESPONDING ROUGHLY TO A FLOW OF 430 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND (CFS). SINCE CANYON DAM CONTINUES TO RELEASE WATER...FLOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY. AS LONG AS FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER REMAIN ABOVE 150 CFS...THE CITY OF VICTORIA CAN CONTINUE TO OBTAIN WATER FROM THE GUADALUPE RIVER. CLIMATE SUMMARY... EXCEPT FOR A FEW PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY...RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR 2008 OVER THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE TOTAL RAINFALL FOR 2008 AT VICTORIA OFFICIALLY WAS 21.71 INCHES (NORMAL IS 40.10 INCHES...RESULTING IN A DEFICIT OF 18.39 INCHES). THE DEFICIT AT CORPUS CHRISTI WAS NOT AS EXTREME (4.27 INCHES)...AS 27.99 INCHES OF RAIN FELL (NORMAL IS 32.26 INCHES). HOWEVER...A SLIGHT RAINFALL SURPLUS OF 1.25 INCHES WAS RECEIVED AT LAREDO...WITH A YEARLY TOTAL OF 21.53 INCHES (NORMAL RAINFALL IS 22.78 INCHES). ELSEWHERE...MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS RECEIVED LESS THAN 75 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS A RESULT...WHILE 2008 BEGAN WITH EITHER MODERATELY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS...THE DROUGHT WORSENED OVER MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY...AS WELL AS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EIGHT TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 15 THROUGH JANUARY 21 2009 INDICATES A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. WHILE THE JANUARY 2009 OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AS FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH SHOWS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS...THE LATEST DROUGHT OUTLOOK STILL EXPECTED THE DROUGHT TO CONTINUE... AND SPREAD OVER THE ABNORMALLY DRY AREAS...THROUGH THE END OF MARCH. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED IN ABOUT THREE WEEKS FROM THIS ISSUANCE...OR NEAR THE END OF JANUARY...UNLESS DROUGHT CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY TO REQUIRE AN EARLIER ISSUANCE. RELATED WEB SITES...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOKS...DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/dm_state.htm?tx,s
TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE...
http://www.txwin.net/monitoring/meteorological/drought/indices.htm
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)...
http://agnews.tamu.edu/
TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)...
http://www.tamu.edu/ticc/
TEXAS BURN BANS...
http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/decban.png
TEXAS KBDI...
http://webgis.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdicounty.png
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS.... http://www.weather.gov/water/
USGS... http://water.usgs.gov/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 300 PINSON DRIVE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406 PHONE: 361-289-0959 SR-CRP.webmaster@noaa.gov GW