Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop – 2008

29 February and 1 March

Building 9 Auditorium

NOAA Western Regional Campus

7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115

Friday, February 29

12 - 1 PM        Registration

1:00-1:05         Welcome and Meeting Plans – Brad Colman

Meteorologist in Charge, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle

1:05-1:15         Winners of the Winter Forecast contest

                        Brad Colman

The 2010 Winter Olympics and the International Forecasting Experiment

1:15-1:30         The Value of Weather forecasts for the 2010 Winter Olympic Games, and the International Forecasting experiment 2008/09 (T-PARC), Chris Doyle, Environment Canada

1:30-1:45        The winter component of T-PARC (Jan-Mar 2009), Rolf Langland (NRL-Monterey), Zoltan Toth (NCEP), Ron Gelaro (NASA-GMAO)

1:45-2:00         Participating in the 2010 Olympics as a forecaster – a recent forecast training experience, Doug McDonnal, NWS Seattle

Local Weather Prediction

2:00-2:15         Regional Fine Resolution Model Archive in Support of Air Quality Modeling in the Pacific Northwest, Dr. Robert Nissen, Meteorological Service of Canada

2:15-2:30         Probabilistic wind forecasting using Bayesian model averaging, J. McLean Sloughter, University of Washington Statistics

2:30-2:45         Using MJO for Improving Weather Forecasting during a La Nina Winter, Mindy Brugman, Pacific Storm Prediction Centre, Meteorological Survey of Canada, Vancouver BC

2:45-3:00         How long does it take to become a skillful forecaster? Nicholas Bond, JISAO/PMEL

3:00-3:30    Break with refreshments

Forecast verification

3:30-3:45         Forecasts for the Edge, Christopher D. Hill, Weatherquilt Enterprises, Longview, Washington

3:45-4:00         A Method for Improving QPF Forecasts in NWS Western Region, Ken Pomeroy, NWS Western Region SSD

4:00-4:15        Optical flow for the Verification of Recent PNW Winter Storms, Dustin Lennon (speaker), Caren Marzban, Scott Sandgathe, Department of statistics and Applied Physics Lab, University of Washington

4:15-4:30        Two-week forecast skill for October-November-December, Todd Mitchell, University of Washington

The storm of December 2007

4:30-4:45        The December 1-4, 2007, Series of Storm Events in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington, Maryanne Reiter, Hydrologist, Weyerhaeuser Company

4:45-5:00        Rainfall and Flooding from the Early December Multi-hazards Storm – How did THAT Happen?  Brent Bower, NWS Seattle

5:00-5:15         An Examination of Record Flooding on the Nehalem River at Vernonia, Oregon, During December 2-4, 2007, and a Comparison with Other Major Events, Andy Bryant and William R. Schneider National Weather Service Portland, Oregon

Workshop Banquet

6:00-9:00         Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center.  4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105

6:00-7:00 PM    Icebreaker – no host bar

7:00-8:00 PM    Buffet Dinner

8:00-9:00 PM    Special Presentation:  John Stimberis, Washington State Department of Transportation: Avalanche Forecasting and Control Programs for Washington State Highways

Highway Avalanche Forecaster John Stimberis will provide an overview of the Washington State Department of Transportation Avalanche Forecasting and Control Programs.  The presentation will focus on two passes: Interstate 90: Snoqualmie Pass, and Highway 410: Chinook Pass.  These passes provide unique challenges to the Avalanche Programs, from the economic significance of I-90 to the varied and complex avalanche terrain of SR410.  John will also provide some insight into avalanche forecasting and the relationship between weather forecast products (NWS, UW), The Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center, and the WSDOT.

Saturday, March 1

The storm of December 2007 (cont.)

8:30-8:45        The Great Coastal Gale of December 2-3, 2007, Wolf Read, University of British Columbia, Forest Sciences

Data analysis and observations

8:45-9:00       An evaluation of a new method for measuring low level vertical temperature structure, Mike Gilroy, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency

9:00-9:15        Usefulness of a Ceilometer for Detecting Boundary Layer Depth for Air Quality Applications, Mike Gilroy, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency

9:15-9:30        Analysis of Sand Point Wind Profiler and RASS System, Bonnie Brown, University of Washington; Puget Sound Clean Air Agency

9:30-10:00  Break with refreshments

10:00-10:15     RTMA vs. MatchObsAll...a data denial experiment, Mike Soltow, Jennifer Chang, and Kirby Cook, NWS Seattle

10:15-10:30     Historical Weather Viewer 2.0, Jay Albrecht, NWS Seattle

10:30-10:45     Satellite Data Capabilities and Their Application to National Weather Service (NWS) Environmental Support Challenges, Michael Bonadonna, National Weather Service, Office of Science and Technology

Regional Weather Prediction and Verification

10:45-11:00     Update on the University of Washington MM5/WRF Real-Time Prediction System,

Cliff Mass, et al.

11:00-11:15      Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in Pacific Northwest, Lynn McMurdie and Joe Casola, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

11:15-11:30      Numerical Weather Prediction Errors, Garrett Wedam, University of Washington

11:30-11:45     What’s new at the National Weather Service?  Ted Buehner and Kirby Cook, National Weather Service Seattle

11:45-1:00  Lunch (included with registration)

                   Choice of enchilada, rice, beans, chips, soda

The Vancouver Tornado of 2008

POSTER:   An Overview of the Vancouver Tornado and the Role Surface Flow and Topography Played in its Development, Julia Ruthford, Charles Dalton, Jonathan Wolfe, Kirsten Elson,

David Elson, NWS Portland.  (NOTE:  This poster will be on display for the entire workshop in the foyer.)

1:00-1:15       The Vancouver EF1 Tornado of 10 January 2008:  Damage Survey and Overview,

Jonathan Wolfe, William R. Schneider, Tyree Wilde, Charles Dalton, NWS Portland

1:15-1:30       Radar Observations of the 10 January 2008 Vancouver Mini-Supercell and Tornado, David Elson, Kirsten Elson, NWS Portland

1:30-1:45         The Perfect Tornado: Priming the Environment for the 10 January 2008 Vancouver Tornado and Supercell, William R. Schneider, Jonathan Wolfe, Charles Dalton, Paul

Tolleson, David Elson, Julia Ruthford, Kirsten Elson, NWS Portland

Northwest Weather and Climate

1:45-2:00         A look at the last 75 years of snowpack in the Cascades, using a streamflow-based proxy for snowpack, Mark Stoelinga, Cliff Mass, and Mark Albright, University of Washington

2:00-2:15         Are extreme rain events becoming more frequent? Valerie Duliere and Phil Mote, Climate Impact Group, University of Washington

2:15-2:30         Summertime Downslope Winds and the Alaska Peninsula, Matt Glazewski, Weather Officer, NOAA Ship FAIRWEATHER

2:30-3:00    Break

3:00-3:15         A Blue Mountain Downslope Windstorm, Jon Mittelstadt, NWS Pendleton

3:15-3:30         Microclimate of Mt Rainier from microsensors, Phil Mote, et al.

3:30-3:45        Local Scale Impacts of Marine Pushes on Prescribed Burning Along the East Slopes of the Washington Cascades, Julia Ruthford, Portland WFO/NWCC

3:45-4:00         The Recent “Additional Factor” Snow Event, Brad Colman, NWS Seattle

THE END

NEXT YEAR’S PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEATHER WORKSHOP WILL BE HELD 20 & 21 MARCH 2009. 

PLEASE GET IT ON YOUR CALENDARS EARLY!!!!

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