000
AXNT20 KNHC 091028
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
10W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N
BETWEEN 18W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE
BRAZIL FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 38W-45W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1005 MB LOW IS WELL INLAND OVER NE TEXAS NEAR 33N98W MOVING E.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 100W-103W. THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WINDS ARE 5-10 KT OVER THE E GULF E OF
90W. WINDS ARE 15-20 KT OVER THE W GULF. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW
OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE N GULF STATES.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
80W-84W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
75W...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM S NICARAGUA TO BELIZE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF
17N. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 57W-70W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF SAHARAN DUST HAS ALSO SPREAD TO ABOUT 50W...ACCORDING TO THE
CIMSS SAL PRODUCT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FURTHER E BETWEEN 20W-50W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N41W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO
10N60W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090953
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 09 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 06N95W TO 07N111W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM
86W TO 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS
W OF 134W.
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE CUTOFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 21N118W KEEPS VERY
DRY AIR MASS TO ITS N AND W WHILE ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ON ITS SE QUADRANT ADVECTED BY 50 KT JET CORE.
UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCES MINOR CONVECTION ALONG AXIS OF
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 109W. MOISTURE HEADS NE INTO MEXICO
MAKING IT AVAILABLE TO THERMAL LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG CENTRAL
MEXICO AND CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE HEALTHY COLD FRONT
GENERATES STRONG CONVECTION.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 12N100W IS WESTERN EXTENSION OF
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS E OF
105W S OF ITCZ.
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1034 MB WELL N OF AREA COMBINES WITH LOW PRES
1002 MB OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO FORCE GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
COAST OF CALIFORNIA JUST N OF E PAC BASIN...BUT NORTHERLY 20-25
KT WINDS STILL ENCROACH S INTO FORECAST WATERS CYCLONIC TO REACH
25N AND GENERATING SWELL TRAINS THAT REACH TO 20N.
WEAK NE TRADES DIMINISH FURTHER BELOW 20 KT WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS
AS HIGH PRES IS FORCED E BY INCOMING COLD FRONT NOW ALONG 150W.
$$
WALLY BARNES
000
AXNT20 KNHC 090518
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 19W-21W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-29W. WITHIN
150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL FROM
EQ-3S BETWEEN 37W-45W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NE TEXAS N OF 31N AND E OF 100W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN
100W-103W. THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW. MOST WINDS ARE 10 KT EXCEPT OVER THE W GULF W OF 96W WHERE
15-20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...ON THE
SURFACE... CONTINUED FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW
OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE N GULF STATES.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM S
NICARAGUA TO BELIZE. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
75W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 57W-70W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF SAHARAN DUST HAS ALSO SPREAD TO ABOUT 50W...ACCORDING TO THE
CIMSS SAL PRODUCT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FURTHER E BETWEEN 20W-50W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N40W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO
10N60W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090347
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 09 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO
07N105W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 06N89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W.
...DISCUSSION...
OVERALL A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER THE RIDGE
IS RATHER FLAT WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE RIDGE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N118W AND
IT IS DRIFTING WEST. THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N TO 10N120W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 130W IS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SEVERAL MOSTLY SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION.
SOME OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS MOVING NORTH OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHER THAN THE ITCZ WEST OF
130W AND NORTH OF 29N THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. NORTH OF 29N THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT IT IS CLOUD FREE EXCEPT FOR BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WEST OF 129W.
AT THE SURFACE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 115W.
REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS BROAD TROUGH. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT REMAIN
IN PLACE.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 082333
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-29W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY N-NW FLOW
ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE N GULF COAST IS
PRODUCING S TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHIP/BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS...15-20 KT...OVER THE WRN WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE FAR N WATERS THIS WEEKEND...BUT LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD STAY JUST N OF THE GULF WATERS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING CONSISTS OF STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...LOCAL EFFECTS ARE
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY AS MUCH OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OVER THE ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
ENHANCED BY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGHING. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY TRANQUIL THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE A SHALLOW MOISTURE
FETCH IS OBSERVED STREAMING IN FROM THE ATLC. TRADE WINDS ARE
MAINLY 15-20 KT...EXCEPT 20-25 KT IN THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS STRONG
HIGH PRES REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF SMALL AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED MIDWAY
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG A WEAKENING SFC TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 73W-75W. THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY...LIKELY CAUSING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. THE OTHER AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 64W-71W...N OF THE ERN GREATER
ANTILLES. INSTABILITY AND DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY WATERS TO THE N. REFER TO
THE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP LAYERED CLOUDINESS SUPPRESSED BY
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC
WHERE THE FLOW IS HIGHLY CONFLUENT. OVER THE TROPICAL E
ATLC...MUCH OF THE STRONG CONVECTION NOTED YESTERDAY HAS
DIMINISHED. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD TO
ABOUT 50W...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SAL PRODUCT.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082118
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
08N105W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 07N89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
POINT 05N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 08N119W.
...DISCUSSION...
OVERALL A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER THE RIDGE
IS RATHER FLAT WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE RIDGE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N116W AND
IT IS DRIFTING WEST SLOWLY. THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N TO 10N120W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 130W IS
IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS
OF MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION. SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHER THAN THE ITCZ WEST OF 130W AND
NORTH OF 30N THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS. NORTH OF 30N THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
MOIST BUT IT IS CLOUD FREE EXCEPT FOR BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WEST OF 128W.
AT THE SURFACE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 120W.
OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W.
REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS BROAD TROUGH. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT REMAIN
IN PLACE.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9N 2N20W 1N20W...THEN CROSSES
THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS N OF THE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N29W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR IN NW FLOW IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF AS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING W OF
THE AREA SPREADS EWD MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 28N.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE GULF WITH JUST A FEW SMALL CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
PARTS OF THE WRN SECTION...AND OVER THE ERN SECTION N OF 25N
MOVING RAPIDLY N IN SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT. A FEW THIN STRANDS OF
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FAR NRN PORTION OF
THE NE GULF...WHILE A SMOKE PLUME DUE TO INLAND FIRES OVER SE
MEXICO AND THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA STREAMS NW ACROSS THE SW
GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 26N AND W OF ABOUT 88W.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 5-6 SM WITH THE PLUME ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HRS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS SW TO ERN CUBA
AND JUST E OF JAMAICA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE NE PART OF THE SEA MAINLY S OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ACTIVITY IS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THESE ISLANDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA...
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NE TO SW ACROSS THE
NW PORTION...WHILE THE NRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE ERN PORTION TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS IS COMBINING TO ACCOUNT FOR SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
OVER THE AREA BRINGING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...
FROM CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA...NEWD INTO ACROSS THE FAR SRN
WATERS. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA KEEPING CONDITIONS
THERE RATHER STABLE WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN SMALL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED MOVING WNW TO THE
S OF 20N. LOW CLOUD THIN STREAMERS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS
EMANATE WWD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 13N.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS
NE TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 32N72W. TO ITS E...A NARROWING
MID/UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE AREA SW THROUGH 32N64W TO 27N66W TO
20N66W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE FROM
32N59W TO 25N59W WITH A RIDGE TO ITS E ALONG 32N52W TO 25N52W.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL E OF THE RIDGE...THEN RESPONDS TO
A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC STRETCHING FROM
32N28W SW TO 24N38W AND S TO 15N35W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN
45 NM OF 26N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A TINY VORT MAX SPUN OFF FROM THE TROUGH IS
RACING N NEAR 29N75W. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER IS JUST N OF THE
AREA NEAR 32N47W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO 29N72W TO ACROSS NRN FL.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AN ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ARE MOVING WWD IN
MODERATE TO STRONG ESE FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AND E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO NEAR 52W. SOME SIGNS OF AFRICAN DUST/HAZE ARE NOTED
OVER THE ERN ATLC S OF 25N E OF 56W...OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT
THERE REMAINS VERY SUPPRESSED WITH JUST THE TYPICAL SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD PRESENT N OF THE ITCZ.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081805 RRA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9N 2N20W 1N20W...THEN CROSSES
THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS N OF THE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N29W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR IN NW FLOW IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF AS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING W OF
THE AREA SPREADS EWD MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 28N.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE GULF WITH JUST A FEW SMALL CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
PARTS OF THE WRN SECTION...AND OVER THE ERN SECTION N OF 25N
MOVING RAPIDLY N IN SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT. A FEW THIN STRANDS OF
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FAR NRN PORTION OF
THE NE GULF...WHILE A SMOKE PLUME DUE TO INLAND FIRES OVER SE
MEXICO AND THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA STREAMS NW ACROSS THE SW
GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 26N AND W OF ABOUT 88W.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 5-6 SM WITH THE PLUME ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HRS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS SW TO ERN CUBA
AND JUST E OF JAMAICA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE NE PART OF THE SEA MAINLY S OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ACTIVITY IS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THESE ISLANDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA...
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NE TO SW ACROSS THE
NW PORTION...WHILE THE NRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE ERN PORTION TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS IS COMBINING TO ACCOUNT FOR SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
OVER THE AREA BRINGING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...
FROM CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA...NEWD INTO ACROSS THE FAR SRN
WATERS. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA KEEPING CONDITIONS
THERE RATHER STABLE WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN SMALL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED MOVING WNW TO THE
S OF 20N. LOW CLOUD THIN STREAMERS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS
EMANATE WWD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 13N.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS
NE TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 32N72W. TO ITS E...A NARROWING
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE AREA SW THROUGH 32N64W TO
27N66W TO 20N66W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE
RIDGE FROM 32N59W TO 25N59W WITH A RIDGE TO ITS E ALONG 32N52W
TO 25N52W. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL E OF THE RIDGE...THEN
RESPONDS TO A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC
STRETCHING FROM 32N28W SW TO 24N38W AND S TO 15N35W. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NE OF
THE TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 26N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A TINY VORT MAX SPUN OFF FROM
THE TROUGH IS RACING N NEAR 29N75W. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER IS
JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N47W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO 29N72W TO
ACROSS NRN FL. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AN ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ARE
MOVING WWD IN MODERATE TO STRONG ESE FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AND E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 52W. SOME SIGNS OF AFRICAN
DUST/HAZE ARE NOTED OVER THE ERN ATLC S OF 25N E OF
56W...OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT THERE REMAINS VERY SUPPRESSED
WITH JUST THE TYPICAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD PRESENT N OF THE ITCZ.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081535
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 08N86W TO 06N92W TO 08N108W TO 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
110W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.
...DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EPAC BETWEEN 100W AND 130W
WITH A WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
NEAR 28N113W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD OVER NRN MEXICO ALONG
29N AND SW TO NEAR 18N126W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL UPPER LOW WAS
TRAPPED S OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N116W...BUT WAS MOVING WWD
AT 10 KT. UPSTREAM CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDED FROM A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR 27N132W SWD TO NEAR 16N133W. FEATURE WAS
WEAKENING IN THE FACE OF THE BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE AS IT ENCOUNTERS STABLE AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE SITUATED ALONG
127W/128W FROM 12N TO 25N.
THE SRN STREAM UPPER WLYS REMAIN ACTIVE AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AN UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK. THESE WLYS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ MOISTURE AND
ENHANCE CONVECTION E OF 140W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES S OF THE UPPER LOW NOTED ABOVE WAS RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 118W WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CLOSER TO 118W WHERE CLOUD TOPS TO -77C AND COLDER
NOTED.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA
NEAR 39N133W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH
30N130W TO 20N118W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS RESULTED IN FRESH NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING
SWD INTO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERATE PULSES OF NW SWELL WHICH ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION TO
MAINTAIN SEA HEIGHTS TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE FAR N PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LONG PERIOD SRN HEMISPHERE SWELL
HAS REACHED THE PACIFIC COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY LARGE SURF ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
COBB
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081051
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 32W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-22W AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 3N BETWEEN 23W-30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY N-NW FLOW
ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...S TO SE WINDS ARE
FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE N GULF COAST. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST...15-20 KT...OVER THE WRN WATERS ACCORDING TO BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT SLIDES SWD
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST
BY SUNDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND NEARBY WATERS N OF 17N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS BEING FUELED BY
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO THE E
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. STRONG
ELY TRADES AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN
THIS AREA ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OVER HISPANIOLA AS
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
E-NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE
SHALLOW MOISTURE FETCH IS OBSERVED STREAMING IN FROM THE ATLC.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA. ONE OF THESE IS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CUBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 78W AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE E OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 72W-76W. THE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS. THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS S OF 23N BETWEEN
57W-70W...N OF THE ERN GREATER ANTILLES ISLANDS. INSTABILITY AND
DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND TO THE E OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEARBY WATERS TO THE N. REFER TO
THE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP LAYERED CLOUDINESS SUPPRESSED BY
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC
WHERE THE FLOW IS HIGHLY CONFLUENT. OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC...
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ E OF
22W AND OVER AFRICA ENHANCED BY BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 16N5W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD TO ABOUT 50W...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS
SAL PRODUCT.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080945
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 06N93W TO 07N107W TO 03N125W TO 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF
AXIS FROM 80W TO 94W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF OF AXIS FROM 105W TO
122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS W
OF 123W.
...DISCUSSION...
LOW LATITUDES MOISTURE INCREASE ADVECTED AROUND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 18N116W HAS MADE
ITCZ MORE ACTIVE THAN IN PAST WEEKS. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW SE QUADRANT OF VORTEX ENHANCES CONVECTION
UPLIFTED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING ALONG 105W. MOISTURE
SWATH REACHING SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF MEXICO BUT NO LIFTING
MECHANISM THERE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF BASIN PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST HAS 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING AS FAR S AS
24N INTO E PAC WATERS AND 9-10 FT SWELLS FARTHER S TO 20N.
RIDGE EXTEND TO 10N110W PROMOTES FRESH TRADES FROM 10N-18N BUT
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND MOVES E. AREA UNDER
RIDGE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN MID/UPPER LEVELS.
PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT 48 HRS.
$$
WALLY BARNES
000
AXNT20 KNHC 080554
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N FROM 10W-20W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY N-NW FLOW
ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...S TO SE WINDS ARE
FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE N GULF COAST. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST...15-20 KT...OVER THE WRN WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
SLIDES SWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE NRN
GULF COAST BY SUNDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND NEARBY WATERS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 63W-75W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS BEING FUELED BY
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO THE E
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. STRONG
ELY TRADES AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN
THIS AREA ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OVER HISPANIOLA AS
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
TRANQUIL THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE SHALLOW
MOISTURE FETCH IS OBSERVED STREAMING IN FROM THE ATLC.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA. ONE OF THESE IS OVER AND TO THE N OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 75W
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 69W-75W. THE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS. THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS S OF 22N BETWEEN
60W-75W...NEAR THE ERN GREATER ANTILLES ISLANDS. INSTABILITY AND
DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND TO THE E OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...
AND NEARBY WATERS TO THE N. REFER TO THE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS VOID OF ORGANIZED
DEEP CLOUDINESS SUPPRESSED BY A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC WHERE THE FLOW IS HIGHLY CONFLUENT.
OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC...CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ E OF 20W AND OVER AFRICA ENHANCED BY
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
16N6W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD TO ABOUT
50W...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SAL PRODUCT.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080348
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
06N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 07N87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
POINT 05.5N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 06N TO 09N FROM 117W TO 122W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS
W OF 134W.
...DISCUSSION...
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 07N140W TO 10N118W TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 105W THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT
WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG MOST OF THE ITCZ. THE FLOW IS
WESTERLY IN THIS AREA WEST OF 110W AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY IN THIS AREA EAST OF 110W. EAST OF 110W SOME MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AMERICAN COAST BUT MOST IS DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
COAST. ALSO THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS ENHANCED EAST OF 110W AS IT
IS WEST OF 110W.
A DISSIPATING DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS PASSED WEST OF
140W BUT A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN THE AREA WEST
OF 128W. THIS FLOW IS MOIST IN THE DEEP LAYER HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS
ARE OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE OVERALL RIDGE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N113W. THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS OUT ABOUT
360 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE AREA INCLUDING THE RIDGE IS DRY AND
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 120W WITH A
WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W.
REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS WEAK TROUGH.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 072346
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 25W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N E OF 19W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY NWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ON THE E PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO. AT THE SFC...S TO SE WINDS ARE FAIRLY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE N GULF COAST. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST...15-20 KT...OVER THE W WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. VISIBILITIES OF 5-7 SM ARE
BEING REPORTED BY OBSERVATION SITES IN S MEXICO WITH A SMOKE
PLUME EXTENDING N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...LIKELY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES OVER MARINE AREAS AS WELL.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND NEARBY WATERS N OF
16N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS BEING FUELED BY
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO THE E
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG ELY TRADES AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA ARE PROVIDING
ENHANCED LIFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISLANDS. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WX PATTERN HOLDS.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY QUITE THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES WHERE THERE IS SHALLOW MOISTURE FETCH STREAMING
IN FROM THE ATLC.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. ONE OF THESE IS OVER AND TO
THE N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY
A SFC TROUGH ALONG 74W AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OFF THE GA/FL COAST. THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
SPLIT AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH. THE OTHER AREA OF
INTEREST IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 63W-70W...NEAR THE GREATER
ANTILLES. INSTABILITY AND DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND TO THE E OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THIS WEATHER. REFER TO THE
CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CLOUDINESS SUPPRESSED BY A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC WHERE THE
FLOW IS HIGHLY CONFLUENT. OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC...A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ E OF 15W AND
OVER AFRICA ENHANCED BY BROAD SFC LOW PRES AND AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 15N5W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST HAS
SPREAD TO ABOUT 50W...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND THE
HAZY APPEARANCE ON EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGES.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072119
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
06N115W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 08N85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 04N91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM
04N TO 09N FROM 111W TO 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF
135W.
...DISCUSSION...
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 07N140W TO 10N113W TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 105W THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT
WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG MOST OF THE ITCZ. THE FLOW IS
WESTERLY IN THIS AREA WEST OF 110W AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY IN THIS AREA EAST OF 110W. EAST OF 110W SOME MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AMERICAN COAST BUT MOST IS DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
COAST. ALSO THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS ENHANCED EAST OF 110W AS IT
IS WEST OF 110W.
A DISSIPATING DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS PASSED WEST OF
140W BUT A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OF THE AREA WEST
OF 128W. THIS FLOW IS MOIST IN THE DEEP LAYER HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS
ARE OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE OVERALL RIDGE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N112W. THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS OUT ABOUT
360 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE AREA INCLUDING THE RIDGE IS DRY AND
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 120W WITH A
WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W.
REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS WEAK TROUGH.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEST SEVERAL DAYS.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 071805
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N19W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 24W AND CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 7W-10W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALONG
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-46W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS JUST EXITING THE GULF WITH
THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL FL SW TO THE
STRAITS OF FL. IN ITS WAKE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED
DRY STABLE AIR IN NW FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF AS BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING W OF THE AREA SPREADS EWD KEEPING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE A RIDGE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 29N E OF 95W. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS
WHERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED. A FEW
THIN STRANDS OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FAR
NRN PORTION OF THE NE GULF...WHILE A SMOKE PLUME FROM OVER SE
MEXICO AND THE SW YUCATAN PENINSULA IS NOTED OVER THE SW GULF
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE SW OF A LINE FROM FAR NE MEXICO TO CAMPECHE.
VISIBILITIES OF 5-7 SM ARE
BEING REPORTED BY MEXICAN REPORTING OBSERVATION SITES ALONG THE
COAST.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE FAR N CENTRAL
PART OF THE SEA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME DAMPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO ITS SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS CREATING BASICALLY
ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. UPPER NW
FLOW FROM THE GULF INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA MERGES WITH
THE ZONAL FLOW RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING STABLE A ENVIRONMENT TO
THE CENTRAL AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE SEA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
SMALL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BRIEF PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE ADJACENT CENTRAL AMERICA.
TO THE E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMES DIFFLUENT WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
17N74W N TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE SE BAHAMAS.
BOTH QUIKSCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED
MODERATE E-SE FLOW TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AND LIGHTER NE-E FLOW
TO ITS W. THESE IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE
UNDER THE DIFFLUENCE TO TRIGGER OFF A PERSISTENT BAND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST S OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
SAT. ELSEWHERE S OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY...THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES DRY IN MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY NARROW
STREAMERS OF SMALL CUMULUS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
EVIDENT S TO ABOUT 12N. CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN S OF 12N.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMAINDER OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DESCRIBED UNDER
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 32N76W. TO ITS
E...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NE TO NE OF THE AREA AT 32N71W. A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS E OF THE RIDGE THROUGH 32N66W TO 25N67W. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL E OF THIS TROUGH...THEN RESPONDS TO A BROAD DEEP
LAYER TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC STRETCHING FROM 32N25W SW TO
NEAR 24N32W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N73W S
THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM NE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE W. A
TINY VORT MAX SPUN OFF FROM THE TROUGH IS RACING N NEAR 30N75W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF IT. A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTER IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N54W WITH A RIDGE WSW
TO 29N72W TO ACROSS NRN FL. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AN ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION ARE MOVING WWD IN MODERATE TO STRONG ESE FLOW S OF
THE RIDGE AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 52W. SOME SIGNS OF
AFRICAN DUST/HAZE ARE NOTED OVER THE ERN ATLC S OF 25N E OF
56W...OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT THERE REMAINS VERY SUPPRESSED
WITH JUST THE TYPICAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD PRESENT N OF THE ITCZ.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ALONG 07N77W TO 09N85W TO 06N93W TO 08N112W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S AND 60 NM N OF
AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 92W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND
140W.
...DISCUSSION...
WELL ESTABLISHED REX BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS EPAC BETWEEN 145W AND
95W HAS INDUCED A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN...WITH BROAD UPPER
WLYS ACROSS CENTRAL PACIFIC AT 155W DIVERTED NE AND SE AROUND
THE UPSTREAM BLOCK.
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED
NEAR 25N138W...AND CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY LIFT N AND FILL. TWO
S/W`S IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW OF EQUATORIAL WLYS WERE MOVING
E...AND UNDERNEATH THIS LIFTING LOW...ALONG 142W AND 136W...AND
WILL COME INTO PHASE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AMPLE MID TO UPPER
MOISTURE REMAINS AHEAD OF THE S/W ALONG 136W...BUT NO BROAD
SCALE LIFT...AND NOW WEATHER WAS OCCURRING IN THIS MOIST REGION.
THE UPSTREAM BLOCKING HIGH-LOW COUPLET WERE LOCATED NEAR 28N113W
AND 17N111W RESPECTIVELY. AN ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE W AND SW
OF THESE FEATURES...AND WAS MAINTAINING SINKING MOTION AND
STABLE CONDITIONS. THE LOW IN THIS COUPLET IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS TO SLIDE SLOWLY NW AND CUT OFF FROM THE CONNECTING UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN LIFT N
AND EJECT OUT TO THE NE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SRN STREAM UPPER WLYS REMAIN ACTIVE AND WILL CONTINUE SO
THROUGH THIS PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ MOISTURE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION
THERE E OF 140W. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ THIS MORNING BETWEEN 120W AND 108W...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD TOPS TO -65C AND COLDER. N OF THE ITCZ...A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM JUST SE OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...SW TO THE ITCZ ALONG 112W...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CLEARLY EVIDENT IN PW IMAGES S OF THIS BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND SE OF THIS MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS COLOMBIA...THE EXTREME TROPICAL EPAC AND SRN CENTRAL
AMERICA CONTINUED TO VENTILATE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ THERE...UNDER DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 35N136W AND
BRIDGED OVER A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA AND TO
ITS SE. A RIDGE EXTENDED SE TO NEAR 16N110W. THE THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE BAJA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING
A WEAKENED GRADIENT ALONG THE BAJA COAST...WITH FRESH NW TO N
WINDS NOW CONFINED FARTHER N AND W FROM RECENT DAYS. PULSES OF
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TO MAINTAIN SEA
HEIGHTS TO AROUND 12 FT ACROSS NE PORTIONS. ADDITIONALLY...VERY
LONG PERIOD SRN HEMI SWELL FROM THE SSW HAS REACHED THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY LARGE SURF ALONG THE COASTS THERE THROUGH MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
STRIPLING
000
AXNT20 KNHC 071037
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W
AND CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S28W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 12W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER 10-20 KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. ALOFT IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...A DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH WEAK TROUGHING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NRN FLORIDA. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND TRACK NEWD KEEPING ANY FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WELL NORTH OF THE GULF WATERS. ONLY MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 24N E OF
86W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH SUNDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS PROVIDING THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY
WLY ZONAL FLOW AND A DRY SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RESIDES E OF 70W WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING LIFTED IN A LARGE
DIFFLUENT ZONE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N73W NWD
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE N OF 14N AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING WESTWARD IN CONVERGENT
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 35N53W. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE...ANALYZED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N73W IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO 25N73W. THIS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 70W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE N-NW TO 28N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FARTHER TO
THE SE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 58W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
WITH 15 TO 20 KT NE TO ELY TRADES.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070914
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N77W 5N95W 7N115W 4N140W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 86W-91W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM
108W-116W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 124W-127W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 25N135W
WITH TROUGH FROM THE CYCLONE TO 16N140W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 600 NM NE OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 27N114W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THE ANTICYLONE IS N OF 25N E OF 125W.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 16N112W...WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W-121W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 5N85W TO COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA
TO BELIZE. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W-91W.
HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF 10N W OF 105W. THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW
PRES OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING BRISK NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
$$
DGS
000
AXNT20 KNHC 070544
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N7W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W
AND CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 1S33W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 12W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO
7N BETWEEN 12W-23W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER 10-20 KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF. ALOFT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW IS OBSERVED WITH WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS
THE NE GULF AND NRN FLORIDA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND TRACK NEWD KEEPING ANY FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WELL NORTH OF THE GULF WATERS. THIS EVENING ONLY
MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N
OF 24N E OF 90W...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
LOOKING AHEAD...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS PROVIDING THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY
WLY ZONAL FLOW AND A DRY SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RESIDES E OF 70W WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT IS BEING LIFTED IN A LARGE DIFFLUENT ZONE E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS ZONE ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N71W TO 19N72W IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 14N AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING WESTWARD
IN CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 35N54W. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE...ANALYZED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N74W TO 23N72W. THIS ALONG WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 70W IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS
EXTENDING WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
N-NW TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FARTHER TO THE SE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN
57W-65W. THE SECOND WEAKNESS IN THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG
32N29W 22N40W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N34W TO 26N35W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEWD.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070307
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO
04N90W TO 07N105W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 04N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 04N94.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE POINT 06N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
THE AREA FROM 06.5N TO 08N FROM 118W TO 122W.
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A BROAD RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N. A TROUGH IS
ALONG 110W SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A CUT OFF LOW
IS LOCATED NEAR 18N138W. THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE AND THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST ABOUT 4 DEGREES A DAY OR ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE CUT OFF LOW HAVE A LARGER
AMPLITUDE. THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIFT A LITTLE
WEST AND BY THE WEEKEND STILL BE NEAR 115W. THE CUT OFF LOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SMALL AND MOVE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY. A PLUME OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF
THE CUT OFF LOW OUT TO ABOUT 500 NM. FEW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE.
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW IS OVER THE AREA
NORTH OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN
THIS AREA AND PATCHY CLOUDS ARE ALSO OBSERVED ADVECTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N134W WITH A
MODERATE RIDGE NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 105W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ASSOCIATED TRADES WILL CONTRACT NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD
TROUGH.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N5W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W
AND CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 1S40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR
1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-10W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 15W-22W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S CENTRAL
GEORGIA...S ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 34N83W
32N85W 31N88W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 99W-101W. THE GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST WINDS ARE
10 KT EXCEPT OVER THE W GULF W OF 96W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA N OF 27N AND E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...ON THE SURFACE...
CONTINUED FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO BELIZE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG
71W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF THE WAVE
AXIS AND N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N55W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH
IS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N73W 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWER
ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 65W-72W. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 26N40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 30W-34W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N72W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 50W-65W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N33W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 25W. IN THE TROPICS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 16N17W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO 10N50W. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE
BAHAMAS TO DRIFT W OVER THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 062148
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST THU MAY 7 2009
...TYPHOON KUJIRA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 7 AM...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN AND
700 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN.
TYPHOON KUJIRA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 21 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH FURTHER ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. KUJIRA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES.
REPEATING THE 7 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 25.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 21 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON KUJIRA.
$$
CB
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062121
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO
06N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE POINTS 03.5N90W AND 04.5N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 04.5N125.5W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 06N134W.
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A BROAD RIDGE IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 110W
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A CUT OFF LOW IS LOCATED
NEAR 18N138W. THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE AND THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE WEST ABOUT 4 DEGREES A DAY OR ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CUT OFF
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BOTH
THE TROUGH AND THE CUT OFF LOW HAVE A LARGER AMPLITUDE. THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIFT A LITTLE WEST AND BY THE
WEEKEND STILL BE NEAR 115W. THE CUT OFF OW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN SMALL AND MOVE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF THE CUT OFF
LOW OUT TO ABOUT 500 NM. FEW CLOUDS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW IS OVER
THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
NOTED IN THIS AREA AND PATCHY CLOUDS ARE ALSO OBSERVED.
A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N134W WITH A
MODERATE RIDGE NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 105W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ASSOCIATED TRADES WILL CONTRACT NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD
TROUGH.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061711
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N7W 3N16W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 32W AND CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 1S37W INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-10W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN 10W-20W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 4N BETWEEN 23W-40W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON AS SE TO S
SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION S OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE U.S. AND E TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A PUSH OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING OVER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE GULF COAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC
HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER NICARAGUA WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND W CARIBBEAN TO 76W. THIS MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W
INCLUDING JAMAICA. ALOFT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 15N68W
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N71W TO 15N69W. THE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE TO A
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING WESTWARD
IN CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS FLOW IS ALSO
BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 13N W OF 81W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 36N54W. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE...ANALYZED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N72W OVER THE EASTERN MOST TURKS
AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W.
THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS CONTINUING TO LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W S TO
26N74W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SUBSIDENT DRY AIRMASS BUT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FURTHER TO THE E WHICH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150/200 NM OF A LINE FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NNW TO 32N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FARTHER TO THE SE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND TROPICAL ATLC FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 57W-68W. THE
SECOND WEAKNESS IN THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC AS AN ELONGATED NE/SW UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 29N35W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 32N35W SW TO 26N42W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 32W AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061607 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ALONG 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 05N90W TO 07N115W TO 04N131W
TO 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 121W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM...MAINLY N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 124W TO 140W.
...DISCUSSION...
A CUT OFF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED
NEAR 23N137W...AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDED FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN 145W AND 130W...NNE AND THEN N
INTO THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A BROAD AND
FLAT EQUATORIAL RIDGE S OF 15N AND ALONG 133W WAS ACTING TO
FAVORABLY VENTILATE ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 125W DUE TO UPPER
DIFFLUENCE.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER HIGH ALONG THE W COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 27N115W...AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING N
BEYOND 45W...HAS NEARLY BECOME ALIGNED N TO S WITH A BROAD MID
TO UPPER LOW DRIFTING SW NEAR 14N110W...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR. MID LATITUDE JET ENERGY WAS
LIFTING OVER THE CUT OFF LOW AND RIDGE...WITH A SHARP DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PATTERN HAS EFFECTED A REX
BLOCK BETWEEN 90W AND 140W. A BROAD ZONE OF SINKING AIR AND FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATED THE AREA DUE WEST OF THE HIGH-LOW COUPLET.
THIS LOW IN THIS COUPLET REMAINS CONNECTED TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN WEAKLY LINKED TO
THE SRN END OF THE SHARP AND DIGGING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. SLY
FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WAS ADVECTING MODEST UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE EQUATORIAL ZONE BETWEEN 90W AND
105W...NWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THEN OVER A TROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG 87W. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
AGAIN TODAY FOR ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 27N133W WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE BAJA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA IS MAINTAINING A FRESH NW TO N WIND FLOW EXTENDING
FROM COASTAL SRN CALIFORNIA TO OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA ALONG ABOUT
24N. ROUGH SEAS PERSIST IN THIS ZONE IN A MIXED SPECTRUM OF WIND
WAVES AND NWLY SWELL. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
MODESTLY TIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THIS ZONE OF FRESH
WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY W. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PULSE OF
NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TO RAISE SEA HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 12 FT ACROSS NE PORTIONS. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LONG PERIOD
SRN HEMI SWELL FROM THE SSW IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
LARGE SURF ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
STRIPLING
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ALONG 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 05N90W TO 07N115W TO 04N131W
TO 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 121W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM...MAINLY N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 124W TO 140W.
...DISCUSSION...
A CUT OFF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED
NEAR 23N137W...AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDED FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN 145W AND 130W...NNE AND THEN N
INTO THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A BROAD AND
FLAT EQUATORIAL RIDGE S OF 15N AND ALONG 133W WAS ACTING TO
FAVORABLY VENTILATE ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 125W DUE TO UPPER
DIFFLUENCE.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER HIGH ALONG THE W COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 27N115W...AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING N
BEYOND 45W...HAS NEARLY BECOME ALIGNED N TO S WITH A BROAD MID
TO UPPER LOW DRIFTING SW NEAR 14N110W...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR. MID LATITUDE JET ENERGY WAS
LIFTING OVER THE CUT OFF LOW AND RIDGE...WITH A SHARP DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PATTERN HAS EFFECTED A REX
BLOCK BETWEEN 90W AND 140W. A BROAD ZONE OF SINKING AIR AND FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATED THE AREA DUE WEST OF THE HIGH-LOW COUPLET.
THIS LOW IN THIS COUPLET REMAINS CONNECTED TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN WEAKLY LINKED TO
THE SRN END OF THE SHARP AND DIGGING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. SLY
FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WAS ADVECTING LIMITED MODEST UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE EQUATORIAL ZONE BETWEEN
90W AND 105W...NWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THEN OVER A TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 87W. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AGAIN TODAY FOR ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 27N133W WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE BAJA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS MAINTAINING A FRESH NW TO N
WIND FLOW EXTENDING FROM COASTAL SRN CALIFORNIA TO OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA ALONG ABOUT 24N. ROUGH SEAS PERSIST IN THIS ZONE IN A
MIXED SPECTRUM OF WIND WAVES AND NWLY SWELL. THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODESTLY TIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH THIS ZONE OF FRESH WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
W. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TO RAISE SEA HEIGHTS TO AROUND 12 FT ACROSS NE PORTIONS.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY LONG PERIOD SRN HEMI SWELL FROM THE SSW IS
PRESENTLY NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY LARGE SURGE ALONG THE COASTS
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
STRIPLING
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061559
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST THU MAY 7 2009
...TYPHOON KUJIRA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 1 AM...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 390 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN AND
625 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN.
TYPHOON KUJIRA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH FURTHER ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 MPH. KUJIRA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES.
REPEATING THE 1 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 23.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST.
$$
CB
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