Pacific Northwest Research Station

Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS) Team

2008 Science Accomplishments

Lynx likely to lose habitat in United States, may gain it in Canada

Scientists simulated the responses of terrestrial ecosystems in North America to the historical climate and nine future climate scenarios on a 5-minute-resolution spatial grid using MC1, a dynamic general vegetation model. The model simulations were part of a joint project with The Nature Conservancy and the U.S. Forest Service investigating potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of the endangered Canada lynx. The simulations show extensive loss of lynx habitat in the conterminous United States and potential habitat expansion in Canada under all of the future climate scenarios.

The climate data sets have been shared with the Remote Sensing Application Center and other research groups upon request.

Outcome: The Nature Conservancy uses model simulations to focus conservation efforts for Canada lynx.

Partners: Oregon State University, The Nature Conservancy

To learn more, contact Ron Neilson at rneilson@fs.fed.us.

Scientists model potential impacts of climate change on California's ecosystem services

Station scientists were key contributors in a project examining the potential impact of climate change on services provided by California ecosystems. They simulated potential changes in vegetation distribution, associated carbon pools and fluxes, and wildfire occurrence in California under nine future climate and greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

This output was given to The Nature Conservancy, which is translating it into ecosystem services values for carbon, water availability, forage production, and carbon sequestration. Project results will be published in the 2008 Climate Change Impacts Assessment, the Second Biennial Report to the California Climate Action team, which submits these reports to the governor and the state legislature.

Outcome: This climate change study has helped to inform California's governor and its legislature.

Partners: California Energy Commission, Oregon State University, Scripps Research Institute, The Nature Conservancy

To learn more, contact Jim Lenihan at jlenihan@fs.fed.us or Ron Neilson at rneilson@fs.fed.us.

Tool: Enhanced MAPSS Fire Forecasting System

Description: The MAPSS Fire Forecasting System continuously updates monthly forecasts of fire danger and drought looking 7 months ahead for the conterminous United States. The forecasts are based on output from the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model, and recent enhancements allow better characterization of fire danger in shrub and grass regions.

Uses: For the 2007 fire season, the MAPSS Fire Forecasting System predicted 8,221,775 acres burned in the conterminous United States as compared to the observed 8,796,309 acres burned. A comparison to the large-fire locations observed in 2007 and provided by the National Interagency Coordination Center showed that 62 percent of the locations were successfully predicted by the forecasting system. Currently, nearly 200 land managers from various resource agencies are alerted each month to new fire forecasts posted on the MAPSS Web site via an ever-growing e-mail list.

To learn more, contact Jim Lenihan at jlenihan@fs.fed.us.