Pacific Northwest Research Station

Forest Inventory and Analysis, Portland

2008 Science Accomplishments

Environmental Analysis and Research (Fried)

Scientists estimate carbon emission from Biscuit Fire

Burning during the 2002 Biscuit Fire was so intense in some areas that topsoil was degraded and lost, likely reducing long-term site productivity. Credit: Cecile Shohet

How much stored carbon did the 2002 Biscuit Fire release? To answer this question, scientists estimated the amount of carbon in 24 separate fuel "pools" by using prefire data from areas later burned by the Biscuit Fire in southern Oregon. They then used postfire estimates to check combustion factors for the various pools of carbon and estimated 2.9 to 3.5 terragrams of carbon were emitted during the fire. This is about 16 times the annual net ecosystem production of this landscape before the wildfire.

Few studies have attempted. This study may lead to further use of pre- and postfire data to determine the carbon outputs to the atmosphere from large wildfires. As more pre- and postfire pairs of plots are measured, a better estimate of the carbon released may be modeled.

Partner: Oregon State University

To learn more, contact David Azuma at dazuma@fs.fed.us.

Scientists model carbon stores and flux in California forests

They estimated annual carbon flux on the 7.97 million acres of timberlands outside of national forests at 2.9 terragrams per year. With continuing annual inventories, the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program will provide future monitoring data on carbon flux across all forest land ownerships, productivity classes, and reserve statuses, as well as providing the basis for understanding the dynamics of carbon transfers from live trees to wood products, bioenergy, or atmospheric emissions via fire.

The legislature used this information in the California Assembly Bill 32 framework for carbon monitoring and emissions reduction. Other clients, such as California Air Resources Board, the Fire and Resource Assessment Program of CALFIRE, the California Board of Forestry, and the California Climate Action Registry Forestry subgroup have used this information to generate options for intensified monitoring activity that would deliver sufficiently precise estimates of carbon flux to support policy development and carbon trading frameworks.

Outcome: The California legislature and other state agencies are using the carbon estimates to develop policy.

Partners: California Climate Action Registry, USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station

To learn more, contact Jeremy Fried at jsfried@fs.fed.us.

Carbon dynamics can be evaluated with inventory plots and satellite imagery

Forests are both a sink and a source of carbon. Quantifying the direction and amount of change in forest carbon storage is necessary to evaluate the contribution of forests to global warming.

Scientists combined data gathered from inventory plots in western Oregon in the mid-1990s and mid-2000s with Landsat satellite images taken in 2-year intervals, stand age maps, and models of carbon accumulation as forests age. They compared changes in carbon estimated from maps, images, and a model with inventory results at both plot and landscape scales. The model overestimated carbon amounts at the plot and landscape scales for both inventory periods, but the change in forest carbon estimated by the model was well within the standard error of the inventory estimates- which indicated a 7-percent increase during the period. Further analysis indicated that the satellite imagery may have detected short term changes in rates of harvest or development patterns that were not obvious in the inventory data. Landsat imagery has been collected since 1972. This study illustrates the potential in using satellite imagery and models to estimate forest areas that were not measured accurately before 1990 or to project future changes.

Partners: Oregon State University, Western Washington University

To learn more, contact Andrew N. Gray at agray01@fs.fed.us.

Effects of budworm outbreak analyzed for private lands in eastern Oregon

The budworm eats new growth of coniferous trees, thus weakening or killing the tree. Researchers estimated the effects of the outbreak on private forest land in eastern Oregon and found a 10-percent growth reduction resulting from defoliation. Tree mortality was estimated to have doubled in the 5-year period 1987-1992, compared to the 10-year period 1977-1987 for Douglas-fir, grand fir, and white fir. The ponderosa/ lodgepole pine group did not show this difference.

The Oregon Department of Forestry used these findings to brief the governor about the extent of budworm damage in eastern Oregon. This information also will be useful when land managers consider options to address future outbreaks.

Outcome: Oregon Department of Forestry uses study to brief governor about extent of budworm damage.

Partner: Oregon Department of Forestry

To learn more, contact: David Azuma at dazuma@fs.fed.us.

BioSum model optimizes fire hazard reduction and bioenergy capacity

Scientists applied BioSum-a tool for optimizing fire-hazard-reduction treatments-to a 25-million-acre study area in western Oregon and northern California.

BioSum model optimizes fire hazard reduction and bioenergy capacity

The BioSum model is a tool for optimizing fire-hazard-reduction treatments and determining the economic feasibility of using material removed during treatment for traditional timber products or to produce bioenergy. Scientists applied BioSum to a 25-million-acre study area in western Oregon and northern California. They found the study area is capable of annually producing (1) $590 million in net revenue; (2) 6 to 12 million green tons of biomass; and (3) 0.8 to 1.2 billion cubic feet of merchantable wood over the course of a decade. This assumes a 10-year implementation and depreciation of the biomass plants constructed to support fuel treatment on all acres for which treatments would achieve fuel reduction benefits.

Under this scenario, fuel hazard would be reduced on 2.8 to 8.1 million acres while providing bioenergy capacity of 496 to 1009 megawatts-enough to power a city of 500,000 to 1,000,000 people. Several clients have requested custom analyses using BioSum. Lakeview, Oregon, used the model as a basis for decisions on sizing a planned bioenergy facility; the California Department of Forestry and Fire used it to evaluate forest practices policy options; and it has been used in a regional analysis of opportunities to attract bioenergy investment capital in New Mexico, to assess bioenergy development feasibility in central Oregon, and in support of forest planning on the Shasta-Trinity National Forest.

Outcome: The BioSum Model is used at local and regional levels to identify bioenergy opportunities.

Partners: USDA Forest Service National Fire Plan, Western Forest Leadership Coalition

To learn more, contact Jeremy Fried at jsfried@fs.fed.us.

Tree growth response to climate warming depends on timing

Trees growing at treeline at high latitudes are generally thought to be limited by available warmth, and most studies on treeline report tree growth increases with warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely unexamined.

To fill this knowledge gap, researchers systematically sampled 1,558 white spruce trees at 13 treeline sites in the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. Both positive and negative growth responses to climate warming were found. These opposing growth responses were found at all sampled sites, although their relative proportion differed between sites and there was no clear relationship with landscape position.

Without accounting for these opposite responses and temperature thresholds, climate reconstructions based on ring width will miscalibrate past climate, and biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation models will overestimate carbon uptake and treeline advance under future warming scenarios.

Partner: Oregon State University

To learn more, contact Harold Zald at harold.zald@oregonstate.edu (formerly with the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program).

Lichens indicate patterns of biodiversity, air quality, and climate

Scientists found that lichen communities indicate key patterns in air quality, climate, and biodiversity in forests of Washington, Oregon, and California. Increases in atmospheric nitrogen are causing a shift in lichen species composition in many parts of the Pacific Northwest. Lichen community composition in the region is also closely patterned on temperature and moisture conditions in the forest interior. The current arrangement of lichen communities suggests several species will be highly sensitive to climate change. Shifting lichen distributions will provide early warning of shifting climate in a region and help forecast how plant communities will respond.

These baseline assessments help natural resource managers identify forests at high risk of degradation from poor air quality as well as areas of high biodiversity and conservation importance.

Partner: Oregon State University

To learn more, contact Sarah Jovan at sjovan@fs.fed.us.

Inventory Reporting (Campbell)

New 5-year reports summarize forest conditions in California and Oregon

Scientists summarized and interpreted basic information about the public and private forest land in California and Oregon. These reports establish a baseline against which future conditions can be compared and trends can be identified. These data can be used for the Forest Service's reporting on international criteria and indicators of sustainability. They can also be used for regional and state-level assessments of various topics including biomass, carbon flux, fuel loading, and fire risk; land use change; status and change in oak woodlands; air quality; timber availability; and the impacts of climate change.

Policymakers and practitioners have found the information yielded from statespecific equations for calculating carbon storage particularly useful. California policymakers are using this information as they develop the state's carbon policy.

These reports are the first to be published in response to a Congressional mandate in the 2002 Farm Bill. They are based on annual data gathered under the new, standardized national inventory method in which a portion of all plots in each state are measured each year.

To learn more, contact Glenn Christensen at gchristensen@fs.fed.us (California report) or Joe Donnegan at jdonnegan@fs.fed.us (Oregon report).

Partners: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, California Department of Forestry and Fire, Oregon Department of Forestry, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest and Pacific Southwest Regions