Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 2.5
Percent in September from August
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BTS 53-08
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Thursday, November 13, 2008
- The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 2.5 percent in September
from its August level, declining for the second consecutive month, the U.S.
Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported
today (Table 1).
The index has
dropped 4.3 percent in the past two months, dropping to a level equal to the
four-year low set in September 2007 (Table 1).
The big
declines of the past two months dropped the freight index into negative
territory for the year. For the first nine
months of 2008, the index declined 0.3 percent, the fourth consecutive
December-to-September decline. The index declined 0.8 percent in the first nine
months of 2007 before rebounding in the last quarter to finish the year down
0.1 percent (Table 3).
The September
decline was the fifth largest monthly decline in the last 10 years while the August
decline of 1.9 percent ranked as the eighth largest. They were both exceeded by the March decline
of 2.9 percent, the second largest in 10 years and the largest since a 4.1
percent decline in March 2000 (Table 2). At 108.0 in September, the freight TSI has returned to its recent low of
108.0 in September 2007 and is down 4.5 percent from its historic peak of 113.1
reached in November 2005. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
The
September 2008 freight TSI level was unchanged from the September 2007 level of
108.0. The last rise in the freight TSI
on a September-to-September basis was between September 2004 and September 2005,
when the index rose by 0.4 percent (Table 4).
Despite the losses
since 2004, the freight index has increased 3.5 percent in five years and 8.2
percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally
adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year
of 2000. It includes historic data from
1990 to the present. Release of the October index is scheduled for Dec.
10.
BTS has issued
a new technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report:
Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 1.6 percent
in September from its August level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI September 2008 level of 114.9 was 2.1 percent lower than
the September 2007 level, marking the first year-to-year decrease since September
2001 (Table 7). The passenger index declined for the first nine months of the
year for the first time since 2001 (Table 3). However, the passenger index is up 17.0 percent in five years and 27.6
percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger
TSI fell 2.3 percent in September from its August level (Table 8). The combined
TSI September 2008 level of 109.4 was 0.5 percent lower than the September 2007
level, and last had a September-to-September increase in September 2005 (Table
9). The combined index also fell for the first nine months of the year following
a one year rise (Table 3). The combined index is up 6.7 percent in five years and
13.2 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
3rd Quarter Changes
On a
quarterly basis, the Freight TSI fell 3.1 percent in the third quarter in the
biggest quarterly decline since the first quarter of 2000 after rising in the
second quarter (Table 10). The Passenger
TSI fell 1.7 percent in the third quarter, falling for the second consecutive
quarter (Table 11). The Combined TSI fell
2.8 percent in the third quarter, falling for the first time in five quarters (Table
12).
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for May (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were
revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation
services. The May Freight TSI is 109.9, revised from the 111.4 reported in the October release. The May Passenger TSI is 118.4,
revised from 116.9. The May Combined TSI is 111.6,
revised from 112.4. The TSI for June,
July, August and September are preliminary.
TSI
revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index
numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest
preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised
TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the
comprehensive revision conducted in July 2007 and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since March 2008
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
March |
108.3 |
-2.9 |
117.4 |
0.8 |
110.1 |
-2.0 |
April |
109.5 |
1.1 |
118.2 |
0.7 |
111.2 |
1.0 |
MayR |
109.9 |
0.4 |
118.4 |
0.1 |
111.6 |
0.3 |
JuneP |
111.5 |
1.4 |
116.9 |
-1.3 |
112.5 |
0.8 |
JulyP |
112.9 |
1.2 |
116.3 |
-0.5 |
113.4 |
0.8 |
AugustP |
110.8 |
-1.9 |
116.8 |
0.4 |
111.9 |
-1.3 |
SeptemberP |
108.0 |
-2.5 |
114.9 |
-1.6 |
109.4 |
-2.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
2.8 |
February |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
March |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
-2.9 |
April |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
May |
0.0 |
2.4 |
-0.1 |
(R) 0.4 |
June |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
(P) 1.4 |
July |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
0.1 |
(P) 1.2 |
August |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
(P) -1.9 |
September |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
-0.9 |
(P) -2.5 |
October |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
1.7 |
|
November |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
0.4 |
|
December |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
-1.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 1999-2008
Percent change from December of previous year
December to September
Excel | CSV
1999 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
2000 |
-5.9 |
7.7 |
-1.8 |
2001 |
-0.4 |
-21.5 |
-7.0 |
2002 |
5.4 |
2.8 |
4.7 |
2003 |
-0.2 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
2004 |
1.7 |
4.6 |
2.5 |
2005 |
-0.5 |
4.5 |
0.7 |
2006 |
-1.3 |
3.6 |
-0.1 |
2007 |
-0.8 |
2.8 |
0.1 |
2008P |
-0.3 |
-2.0 |
-0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
104.0 |
4.2 |
2000 |
98.8 |
-5.0 |
2001 |
97.4 |
-1.4 |
2002 |
102.5 |
5.2 |
2003 |
104.4 |
1.8 |
2004 |
109.9 |
5.3 |
2005 |
110.4 |
0.4 |
2006 |
109.9 |
-0.5 |
2007 |
108.0 |
-1.7 |
2008P |
108.0 |
0.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2008 (September to September)
Excel | CSV
2007 |
1 |
0.0 |
-2.1 |
-0.5 |
2006 |
2 |
-1.7 |
2.0 |
-0.8 |
2005 |
3 |
-2.2 |
3.4 |
-0.9 |
2004 |
4 |
-1.7 |
9.4 |
0.9 |
2003 |
5 |
3.5 |
17.0 |
6.7 |
2002 |
6 |
5.4 |
22.5 |
9.5 |
2001 |
7 |
10.9 |
45.1 |
19.0 |
2000 |
8 |
9.3 |
12.0 |
9.3 |
1999 |
9 |
3.8 |
18.3 |
7.4 |
1998 |
10 |
8.2 |
27.6 |
13.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to September 2008 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
February |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
-0.5 |
March |
0.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
April |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
May |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
(R) 0.1 |
June |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
(P) -1.3 |
July |
0.1 |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
(P) -0.5 |
August |
0.2 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
(P) 0.4 |
September |
1.4 |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.6 |
October |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
|
November |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
-1.5 |
|
December |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
97.2 |
7.9 |
2000 |
102.6 |
5.6 |
2001 |
79.2 |
-22.8 |
2002 |
93.8 |
18.5 |
2003 |
98.2 |
4.7 |
2004 |
105.1 |
7.0 |
2005 |
111.1 |
5.7 |
2006 |
112.7 |
1.4 |
2007 |
117.4 |
4.2 |
2008P |
114.9 |
-2.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
2.1 |
February |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
March |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
-2.0 |
April |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
May |
0.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
(R) 0.3 |
June |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
(P) 0.8 |
July |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
(P) 0.8 |
August |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
0.7 |
(P) -1.3 |
September |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
(P) -2.3 |
October |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
|
November |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
|
December |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
101.8 |
5.4 |
2000 |
100.0 |
-1.8 |
2001 |
91.9 |
-8.1 |
2002 |
99.9 |
8.7 |
2003 |
102.5 |
2.6 |
2004 |
108.4 |
5.7 |
2005 |
110.3 |
1.8 |
2006 |
110.2 |
-0.1 |
2007 |
109.9 |
-0.3 |
2008P |
109.4 |
-0.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10: Freight
Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change from
the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1999 |
2.9 |
-0.4 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
2000 |
-4.8 |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
-0.9 |
2001 |
1.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
2002 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2003 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
3.5 |
2004 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
2005 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
2006 |
-0.5 |
1.8 |
-2.5 |
-0.9 |
2007 |
0.8 |
-1.3 |
-0.4 |
0.4 |
2008 |
-0.1 |
(P)
3.0 |
(P)
-3.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11:
Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1999 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
-1.9 |
2000 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
-1.6 |
2001 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-21.0 |
15.2 |
2002 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
4.1 |
2003 |
-4.0 |
-0.2 |
5.0 |
2.3 |
2004 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
2005 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
-2.1 |
2006 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2007 |
0.0 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
-0.1 |
2008 |
0.1 |
(P)
-0.5 |
(P)
-1.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12:
Combined Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1999 |
2.0 |
-0.2 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
2000 |
-2.1 |
0.5 |
-0.2 |
-1.2 |
2001 |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
-7.4 |
3.9 |
2002 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
2.6 |
2003 |
-2.2 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
2004 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
-0.1 |
1.0 |
2005 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
2006 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
-1.6 |
-0.4 |
2007 |
0.6 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
2008 |
0.0 |
(P)
2.1 |
(P)
-2.8 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased
from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic
indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course
of the economy. The movement of the
index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the
relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic
Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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