000 AXUS74 KEWX 022040 DGTEWX TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177- 187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491- 493-507-162045- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008 ...SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... SYNOPSIS... DURING AUGUST WE SAW THE TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AT TIMES THIS HIGH BROKE DOWN AND ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ALSO IMPACTED THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PROVIDED SHORT TERM DROUGHT RELIEF. THIS RAINFALL WAS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. RECENT RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS TO DATE AND ERASED SOME OF THE DEFICITS. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE RECORDED 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THERE ARE STILL SECTIONS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2008. RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS MOST AREAS ARE 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS DOWN AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID AUGUST 26TH SHOWED AN AREA OF (D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT SEVERITY CENTERED ACROSS HAYS... CALDWELL...BASTROP AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. THE EASTERN HALF OF BLANCO...THE EASTERN HALF OF COMAL...THE EASTERN HALF OF GUADALUPE...THE WESTERN HALF OF FAYETTE...THE WESTERN HALF OF LEE...AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY WERE ALSO INCLUDED IN THE (D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT SEVERITY. A LARGE AREA OF (D2)... SEVERE DROUGHT WAS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF VAL VERDE COUNTY...THEN EAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF LLANO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BURNET COUNTY...THE NORTHERN HALF OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY...THE EASTERN HALF OF LEE COUNTY...THE EASTERN HALF OF FAYETTE COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAVACA COUNTY...THE EASTERN HALF OF DEWITT COUNTY...THE WESTERN HALF OF GONZALES COUNTY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF WILSON COUNTY...THE EASTERN HALF OF BEXAR COUNTY...THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BANDERA COUNTY...THE WESTERN THIRD OF MEDINA COUNTY...MOST OF FRIO AND DIMMIT COUNTIES...THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF MAVERICK COUNTY...THEN NORTH INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER (D1)...MODERATE DROUGHT STATUS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE RECENT RAINFALL. MOST GRASS AND FINE FUELS THAT WERE BROWN HAVE TURNED GREEN...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NEEDED TO REDUCE THE WILDFIRE THREAT. SEVERAL COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED THE COUNTY WIDE BURN BANS AND OTHERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COUNTY WIDE BURN BANS. AS OF SEPTEMBER 2ND BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 17 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE...ATASCOSA...BURNET...CALDWELL... DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GUADALUPE...KARNES...KERR...LEE... LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON AND ZAVALA COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES NOT LISTED SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE'S OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO BURN...IN ORDER TO ENSURE THAT THE COUNTY HAS NOT ENACTED A BURN BAN. THE SEPTEMBER 2ND KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWS THAT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE 300 TO 500 RANGE. BASTROP... CALDWELL...LEE...GUADALUPE...TRAVIS WILLIAMSON AND BURNET COUNTIES WERE REPORTING A KBDI INDEX OF 600 TO 700. VAL VERDE COUNTY REPORTED A KBDI INDEX OF 200 TO 300 DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE AUGUST 27TH TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED. MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVED 6 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE YEAR TO DATE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL REMAINED ABOUT 62 PERCENT OF THE LONG TERM AVERAGE. THE RAINFALL HELPED COTTON...PEANUTS AND FALL-FORAGE. THE RAINFALL SLOWED THE FINISHING OF CORN AND SORGHUM HARVEST. ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF THE COTTON HAS BEEN DEFOLIATED, BUT THE RAINFALL WILL DELAY HARVESTING. PEANUTS MADE GOOD PROGRESS. FALL VEGETABLE PLANING WAS UNDER WAY. CLIMATE SUMMARY... SINCE JANUARY 1, 2008 RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN 10 TO 15 INCHES. HIGHER AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 1, 2008 AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL: 2008 RAINFALL NORMAL TO DATE DEPARTURE AUSTIN MABRY 12.92 21.73 -8.81 AUSTIN BERGSTROM 13.95 22.39 -8.44 SAN ANTONIO 12.78 21.61 -8.83 DEL RIO 16.36 13.10 +3.26 DURING THE MONTH WE EXPERIENCED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND THESE BOTH PROVIDED RAINFALL AND SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEL RIO RECORDED A RECORD RAINFALL OF 6.09 INCHES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY, AUGUST 29TH. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT MADE AUGUST 2008 THE 2ND WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD AT DEL RIO. THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURE BELOW NORMAL IN DEL RIO. OTHER LOCATIONS WERE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR AUGUST. WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN RAINFALL MANY LOCATIONS ARE NOW NEAR 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. SO FAR SAN ANTONIO HAS RECEIVED 59 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL SINCE JANUARY 1. DEL RIO HAS SEEN SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS HAS PUSHED THEIR PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL TO 125 PERCENT SINCE JANUARY 1. AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECORDED 59 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL THROUGH AUGUST 31ST. AUSTIN BERGSTROM HAS RECEIVED 62 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL TO DATE. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOKS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS ARE CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE OUTLOOK FOR RAINFALL IS CALLING FOR GREATER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS PROSPECT FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FROM GREATER CHANCES FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD WHERE MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOW A PEAK. THE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER IS CALLING FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE MAIN IMPACTS OF DROUGHT HAVE BEEN TO AGRICULTURE...BUT THE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT AS WATER USAGE HAS INCREASED AND RESERVOIRS...LAKES AND AQUIFERS CONTINUE FALLING. MOST RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 25 TO 75 PERCENT (NORMAL) RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH AN AREA OF 10 TO 24 PERCENT (BELOW NORMAL) NOTED OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND AN AREA OF 76 TO 90 PERCENT (ABOVE NORMAL) ON THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF AUGUST 31... ALL AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS ARE NOW SEVERAL FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS AND CONTINUE TO FALL. BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS. NORMAL POOL (FT) LATEST ELEVATIONS (FT) MEDINA LAKE 1064.2 1050.39 CANYON LAKE 909 902.19 LAKE TRAVIS 681 660.97 LAKE BUCHANAN 1020 1011.83 LAKE GEORGETOWN 791 774.18 LAKE AMISTAD 1117 1102.00 RESTRICTIONS... MANY LOCATIONS HAVE IMPLEMENTED WATER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL AND DECREASING SUPPLIES. ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED OCTOBER 3RD OR SOONER AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES. (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE) AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS): HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE): HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION: HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE NAY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2090 AIRPORT ROAD NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130 830-606-3617 $$