Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KSHV 240800
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2008

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/: 
OUR CORNER OF THE UNIVERSE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING
EARLY THIS MORNING.  WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  A
COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO LINCOLN NEBRASKA.
GIVEN THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...I REALLY DO NOT THINK IT
WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION.

IF YOU LIKED THE WEATHER YESTERDAY...YOU SHOULD BE HAPPY WITH TODAY
AS WELL.  CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
THE RULE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN.

WE ARE WATCHING A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOP OFF THE WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA COAST.  BOTH LOWS /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ ARE FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIGRATE WEST IN
RESPONSE...AND ALLOW A LITTLE BIT OF TROUGHINESS TO ENCROACH UPON
/AT LEAST/ OUR EASTERN COUNTIES/PARISHES.  THIS COULD BRING SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO OUR AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOOT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/: 
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD BE PICKED UP THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH ELONGATES AND EXITS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN ASSERT ITSELF OVER OUR
REGION.  A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE
RESULT...ALONG WITH NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE SOUTH FROM KANSAS
AND MISSOURI...AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE
BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND I`LL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES RATHER QUIET AT THIS TIME.  TIME WILL TELL.  /21/

&&

AVIATION: 
PERSISTENCE RULES.  06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS GFS INITIALIZED BEST ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS SUCH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VFR CU
FIELD CROPPING UP IN THE 16-17Z TIME FRAME.  ALSO...FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING KELD/KTXK...BUT VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT
WORST...AND DISSIPATE W/DIURNAL HEATING.


&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: 
SHV  87  63  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  88  58  86  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  87  58  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  86  61  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  58  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  87  64  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  87  63  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  89  63  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: 
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECASTER...BUTTS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER...JD