Contact Information
202-452-3369
michael.w.mccracken@frb.gov

Fields of Interest
Econometrics and Statistics
Macroeconomics

Education
Ph.D., Econometrics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1998
B.S., Mathematics, University of Kansas, 1989

Professional Experience
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2005-present
Assistant Professor, University of Missouri-Columbia, 2001-2005
Assistant Professor, Louisiana State University, 1998-2001

Selected Publications

• ''Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling Forecasts'' (with Todd E. Clark), International Economic Review (forthcoming).
• ''Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities'' (with Todd E. Clark), Journal of Applied Econometrics (forthcoming).
• ''Forecasting with Small Macroeconomic VARs in the Presence of Instabilities'' (with Todd E. Clark), in Mark E. Wohar and David E. Rapach, eds., Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty. Amsterdam: Elsevier, forthcoming.
• ''Asymptotics for Out-of-Sample Tests of Granger Causality,'' Journal of Econometrics, vol. 140 (October 2007), pp. 719-752.
• Combining Forecasts from Nested Models (with Todd E. Clark), Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2007.
• ''Pairwise Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy,'' Quantile, vol. 1 (September 2006), pp. 53-62.
• ''Evaluating Direct Multi-Step Forecasts'' (with Todd E. Clark), Econometric Reviews, vol. 24 (2005), pp. 369-404.
• ''The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence'' (with Todd E. Clark), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 38 (August 2006), pp. 1127-1148.
• ''Evaluating the Predictive Ability of Exchange Rates using Long Horizon Regressions: Mind Your p’s and q’s!'' (with Stephen Sapp), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 37 (June 2005), pp. 473-94.
• ''The Power of Tests of Predictive Ability in the Presence of Structural Breaks'' (with Todd E. Clark), Journal of Econometrics, vol. 124 (January 2005), pp. 1-31.
• ''Parameter Estimation and Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy Between Non-nested Models,'' International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 20 (July 2004), pp. 503-14.
• ''Economic Communication in the 'Lost Decade': News Coverage and the Japanese Recession'' (with H.D. Wu and S. Saito), International Journal for Communication Studies, vol. 66 (2004), pp. 133-149.
• ''Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models'' (with Todd E. Clark), Journal of Econometrics, vol. 105 (November 2001), pp. 85-110.
• ''Inference About Predictive Ability'' (with Kenneth D. West), in Michael Clements and David Hendry, eds., A Companion to Economic Forecasting. Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell Publishers, 2001.
• ''Robust Out-of-Sample Inference,'' Journal of Econometrics, vol. 99 (December 2000), pp. 195-223.
• ''An Out-of-Sample Nonparametric Test of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis,'' in Thomas Fomby and Carter Hill, ed., Advances in Econometrics: Applying Kernel and Nonparametric Estimation to Economic Topics. Stamford, CT.: JAI Press, 2000.
• ''Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability'' (with Kenneth D. West), International Economic Review, vol. 39 (1998), pp. 817-40.