Freight Transportation Services Index
(TSI) Fell 1.9 Percent in March from February
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BTS 21-08
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, May 14, 2008
- The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 1.9 percent in March
from its February level, the largest monthly decline since August 2006, the
U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported
today (Table 2).
Since dropping
to a recent low in September, the freight index has increased sharply in
October and January, with each rise followed by a sharp drop two months later (Table
1). At 109.4 in March, the freight TSI was
up 1.3 percent in the six months since its recent low of 108.0 in September but
down 3.3 percent from its peak of 113.1 reached in November 2005. For
additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The 0.5 percent
increase in the freight index since December marked the second consecutive year
the index increased in the first three months (Table 3).
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
The
March freight TSI level of 109.4 was 0.4 percent lower than the March 2007
level for the third consecutive March-to-March decline. The index is at its lowest March level since
March 2003 (Table 4).
Despite
declines from recent March levels, the freight index has increased 6.1 percent
in five years and 10.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally
adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year
of 2000. It includes historic data from
1990 to the present. Release of the April index is scheduled for June 11.
BTS has issued
a new technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report:
Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers rose 1.8
percent in March from its February level, rising after two consecutive monthly
declines (Table 6). The Passenger TSI March
2008 level of 116.2 was 1.8 percent higher than the March 2007 level, marking six
consecutive annual increases since March 2003 (Table 7). The passenger index declined
for the first three months of the year for the first time since 2003 (Table
3). However, the passenger index is up 23.9
percent in five years and 29.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger
TSI fell 1.0 percent in March from its February level, falling for the second
consecutive month (Table 8). The combined TSI March 2008 level of 110.7 was 0.2
percent higher than the March 2007 level (Table 9). Despite the March decline, the combined index rose for the first
three months of the year for the fifth consecutive year (Table 3). The combined
index is up 10.4 percent in five years and 15.5 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
1st Quarter Changes
On a
quarterly basis, the Freight TSI rose 0.5 percent in the first quarter, rising
for the second consecutive quarter. The quarterly increases coincide with the
recovery from the recent low in September (Table 10). The Passenger TSI fell 0.8 percent in the first
quarter, the second consecutive quarterly decline (Table 11). The Combined TSI increased 0.2 percent in the
first quarter, also rising for the second consecutive quarter (Table 12).
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for November (Freight, Passenger and Combined)
were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation
services. The November Freight TSI is 110.2, unchanged from the April release.
The November Passenger TSI is 116.4, revised from 115.0. The November Combined
TSI is 111.4, revised from 111.0. The TSI for December, January,
February and March are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI
is updated monthly with the latest four months’ index numbers considered
preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and
replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information
about the monthly revision policy, the 2007 comprehensive revision conducted
with the July release and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since September 2007
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
September |
108.0 |
-0.9 |
117.4 |
-0.1 |
109.9 |
-0.7 |
October |
109.8 |
1.7 |
118.2 |
0.7 |
111.5 |
1.4 |
NovemberR |
110.2 |
0.4 |
116.4 |
-1.5 |
111.4 |
-0.1 |
DecemberP |
108.8 |
-1.3 |
117.1 |
0.6 |
110.5 |
-0.8 |
JanuaryP |
111.5 |
2.4 |
115.5 |
-1.4 |
112.1 |
1.5 |
FebruaryP |
111.5 |
0.0 |
114.1 |
-1.2 |
111.8 |
-0.3 |
MarchP |
109.4 |
-1.9 |
116.2 |
1.8 |
110.7 |
-1.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
(P) 2.4 |
February |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
(P) 0.0 |
March |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
(P) -1.9 |
April |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
|
May |
0.0 |
2.4 |
-0.1 |
|
June |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
|
July |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
0.1 |
|
August |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
|
September |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
-0.9 |
|
October |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
1.7 |
|
November |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
(R) 0.4 |
|
December |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
(P) -1.3 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Annual Change, 1999-2008
Percent change from December of previous year
December to March
Excel | CSV
1999 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
2000 |
-4.8 |
4.1 |
-2.1 |
2001 |
1.6 |
-0.5 |
0.9 |
2002 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
2003 |
-1.5 |
-4.0 |
-2.2 |
2004 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
2005 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
2006 |
-0.5 |
2.2 |
0.1 |
2007 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
2008P |
0.5 |
-0.8 |
0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the March
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
102.8 |
4.0 |
2000 |
99.9 |
-2.8 |
2001 |
99.4 |
-0.5 |
2002 |
98.8 |
-0.6 |
2003 |
103.1 |
4.3 |
2004 |
109.8 |
6.5 |
2005 |
112.0 |
2.0 |
2006 |
110.7 |
-1.2 |
2007 |
109.8 |
-0.8 |
2008P |
109.4 |
-0.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2008
(March to March)
Excel | CSV
2007 |
1 |
-0.4 |
1.8 |
0.2 |
2006 |
2 |
-1.2 |
4.4 |
0.1 |
2005 |
3 |
-2.3 |
7.2 |
-0.1 |
2004 |
4 |
-0.4 |
13.8 |
3.0 |
2003 |
5 |
6.1 |
23.9 |
10.4 |
2002 |
6 |
10.7 |
24.7 |
14.0 |
2001 |
7 |
10.0 |
15.7 |
11.0 |
2000 |
8 |
9.5 |
17.2 |
11.1 |
1999 |
9 |
6.4 |
24.0 |
10.9 |
1998 |
10 |
10.7 |
29.8 |
15.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to March 2008 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.4 |
February |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
(P) -1.2 |
March |
0.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
(P) 1.8 |
April |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
|
May |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
|
June |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
|
July |
0.1 |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
|
August |
0.2 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
|
September |
1.4 |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
|
October |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
|
November |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
(R) -1.5 |
|
December |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
(P) 0.6 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the March
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
93.7 |
4.7 |
2000 |
99.2 |
5.8 |
2001 |
100.4 |
1.3 |
2002 |
93.1 |
-7.3 |
2003 |
93.7 |
0.7 |
2004 |
102.1 |
8.9 |
2005 |
108.3 |
6.1 |
2006 |
111.3 |
2.7 |
2007 |
114.2 |
2.6 |
2008P |
116.2 |
1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
(P) 1.5 |
February |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
(P) -0.3 |
March |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
(P) -1.0 |
April |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
|
May |
0.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
|
June |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
|
July |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
|
August |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
0.7 |
|
September |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
|
October |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
|
November |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
(R) -0.1 |
|
December |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
(P) -0.8 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the March
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
99.8 |
4.2 |
2000 |
99.7 |
-0.2 |
2001 |
99.7 |
0.1 |
2002 |
97.1 |
-2.7 |
2003 |
100.2 |
3.3 |
2004 |
107.5 |
7.2 |
2005 |
110.8 |
3.1 |
2006 |
110.5 |
-0.2 |
2007 |
110.5 |
0.0 |
2008P |
110.7 |
0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10: Freight
Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change from
the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1999 |
2.9 |
-0.4 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
2000 |
-4.8 |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
-0.9 |
2001 |
1.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
2002 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2003 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
3.5 |
2004 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
2005 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
2006 |
-0.5 |
1.8 |
-2.5 |
-0.9 |
2007 |
0.8 |
-1.3 |
-0.4 |
(P)
0.8 |
2008 |
(P)
0.5 |
|
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11:
Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1999 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
-1.9 |
2000 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
-1.6 |
2001 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-21.0 |
15.2 |
2002 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
4.1 |
2003 |
-4.0 |
-0.2 |
5.0 |
2.3 |
2004 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
2005 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
-2.1 |
2006 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2007 |
0.0 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
(P)
-0.2 |
2008 |
(P)
-0.8 |
|
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12:
Combined Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1999 |
2.0 |
-0.2 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
2000 |
-2.1 |
0.5 |
-0.2 |
-1.2 |
2001 |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
-7.4 |
3.9 |
2002 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
2.6 |
2003 |
-2.2 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
2004 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
-0.1 |
1.0 |
2005 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
2006 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
-1.6 |
-0.4 |
2007 |
0.6 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
(P)
0.5 |
2008 |
(P)
0.2 |
|
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in
the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic
Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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