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000 FXUS64 KEWX 132328 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 628 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008 .AVIATION...A DEEP MOIST SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO S CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BETWEEN KECU-KUVA-KDRT-KCOT. CIGS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MVFR AFTER 02Z AND LOWER TO IFR MOST AREAS AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE THRU 16Z. SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SELY SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008/ DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ON THE UPTREND WITH THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGING ON A WET FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS AT 12Z WERE SIMILAR TO 24H AGO...BETWEEN 1.70 AND 1.80 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS40 SOLUTION SHOWS PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2.0 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...OR UP TO ROUGHLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ASSUMING THIS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE FORECAST VERIFIES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A GOOD BET. A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES INTO THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA...BUT WE HAVE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION SHOWS A WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROPA...WITH THE GFS 12-18H LATER. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE HIGHLY MODIFIED COMPARED TO THE OBSERVED TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT RIGHT NOW (IN THE 40S AND 50S). THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING UP OVER WEST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. WILL DROP PRECIP OUT OF OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY...WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 87 71 84 66 / 20 20 20 70 60 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 86 70 83 68 / 20 20 20 70 60 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 85 70 83 67 / 50 10 20 30 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 86 72 84 68 / 30 20 20 70 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 13/01