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Table 1: Coefficients and Fit of Models for Forecasting the Natural Logarithm of the Numbers of Fatal and Serious Casualties and of the Rate of Slight Casualties

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Parameter Number of fatalities Number of serious casualties Slight casualty rates per 100 million vehicle- kilometers
Coefficient Standard error Coefficient Standard error Coefficient Standard error
Autoregressive term 0.684 0.13 0.831 0.093 0.84 0.088
Trend -0.027 0.002 -0.030 0.003 -0.026 0.003
Constant 8.996 0.043 11.534 0.065 0.205 0.054
Standard error 0.045   0.042   0.034  
Adjusted R2 0.965   0.966   0.966  
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