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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KPSR 100319
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST SAT MAY 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER...WITH A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL PREVAIL OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR DAYS...WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE. CURRENT HOT DRY FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES
NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA TODAY...
WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM OVER PHOENIX. IR IMAGERY AT 2 PM SHOWED
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS WERE RATHER LOW...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR
THE MOST PART. TEMPS WERE RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO VALUES SEEN 24 HOURS
AGO...AND MOST DESERTS SHOULD END UP WITH MAX TEMPS TODAY THAT ARE
10-13 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
PROGS INDICATE THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG
WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS WILL MORE OR LESS FLAT LINE OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER ZONAL WITH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ALL WEEK...WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH
GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES SHOULD BE RATHER
LARGE AS WELL...30 DEGREES OR MORE OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERT.
TEMPS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY...BUT BELOW
RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS AT PHOENIX SHOULD NOT FLUCTUATE MORE THAN 2-3
DEGREES SUNDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...AND SHOULD BE
ABOVE 100 EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING
KPHX...KIWA...KBLH...AND KIPL AIRFIELDS. CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z MON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS KBLH WHERE AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...5 TO 15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z SUN TO 01Z MON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RH. EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE 105 F HIGH AT PHOENIX FRIDAY WAS THE THIRD-WARMEST MAX TEMP FOR
8 MAY. THE ONLY TWO HIGHER MAX TEMPS ON THIS CALENDAR DATE WERE 110
F IN 1989 AND 106 F IN 2001. THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
PHOENIX ON 8 MAY IS 91 DEGREES. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERIOD OF RECORD
FOR PHOENIX IS 114 YEARS.
THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY 9 MAY IS 108 DEGREES SET IN 1934...AND THE
AVERAGE HIGH FOR THIS DATE IS 91 DEGREES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
CLIMATE...WANEK/DG
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National Weather Service
Phoenix Weather Forecast Office
P.O. Box 52025
Phoenix, AZ 85072
Tel: (602) 275-0073
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