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Highlights of Clear Skies in Colorado
- Colorado sources would reduce emissions of NOx by 32% and mercury
by 37% by 2020 due to Clear Skies. SO2 emissions would be unchanged.
- The health benefits in the West would total $8.6 billion annually
($1.6 billion under the alternative estimate) and include approximately
1,100 fewer premature deaths (600 under the alternative estimate)
and 2,500 fewer hospitalizations/emergency room visits each year.
Note: For the purposes of this
analysis, the West includes all states that would be affected
by the Zone 2 cap for NOx under Clear Skies. These states are
WA, OR, CA, UT, AZ, ID, MT, WY, CO, NM, TX, OK, KS, NE, ND,
and SD.
- In addition, Western states would continue to enjoy good visibility
and the other benefits of a clean environment even in the face
of increasing demand for electricity.
- Clear Skies does not significantly impact electricity prices.
With or without Clear Skies, electricity prices in the electricity
supply region that includes Colorado are expected to increase
slightly.
Clear Skies: An Innovative Approach to Improving Human Health
and the Environment
Why Clear Skies?
- Air quality has improved, but serious concerns persist.
- Colorado's citizens suffer ill effects from air pollution,
including asthma attacks and premature death
- Electricity generation sector remains a major emissions source
- Very cost-effective to control the power sector, relative
to other sources
- Sources are concerned about upcoming complex and burdensome
regulations
Advantages of the Clear Skies Approach
- Guarantees significant nationwide emissions reductions -- beginning
years before full implementation
- Colorado sources would substantially reduce emissions of
NOx and mercury
- Delivers dramatic progress towards achievement of critical
health and environmental goals
- Uses proven, market-based flexible approach with incentives
for innovation
- Recognizes environmental needs as well as industry constraints,
allowing industry to better manage its operations and finances
while lowering risks to the public
- Sources are projected to install pollution controls to enable
continued reliance on coal
- Increases certainty across the board for industry, regulators,
and consumers
Under Current Clean Air Act Power Plants Would Face a Complex
Set of Requirements
![Under Current Clean Air Act Power Plants Would Face a Complex Set of Requirements](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/me_im1.gif)
For a larger image, click here.
Clear Skies Sets a Firm Timeline for Emission Reductions
The existing Title IV SO2 cap-and-trade program provides
an incentive and a mechanism to begin reductions upon enactment
of Clear Skies years before regulatory action under the current
Act. |
2004: The NOx SIP call (summertime NOx cap in 19 Eastern
States + D.C.)
2008: Clear Skies NOx Phase I (2.1 million ton annual cap
assigned to two Zones with trading programs)
2010:
- Clear Skies Mercury Phase I (26 ton annual cap with a national
trading program)
- SO2 Phase I (4.5 million ton annual cap with a national trading
program)
2018:
- Clear Skies NOx Phase II (1.7 million ton annual cap assigned
to two Zones with trading programs)
- Clear Skies Hg Phase II (15 ton annual cap with a national
trading program)
- Clear Skies SO2 Phase II (3.0 million ton annual cap with a
national trading program)
Clear Skies Builds Upon the Work of the WRAP
Clear Skies Western (Zone 2) States
![Yellow states are states involved in the WRAP voluntary emissions reduction program.](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/ndwrap.gif)
Note: Yellow
states are states involved in the WRAP voluntary emissions
reduction program.
|
- Clear Skies is designed to support the WRAP goals and process;
in addition to a national constraint on SO2, the bill ensures
that the WRAP's emissions reduction goal for nine states is achieved:
- If for any reason the regional reduction goal set by the
WRAP for 2018 (271,000 tons for the power sector) is not achieved,
a separate WRAP cap-and-trade program is triggered to ensure
that the regional reductions are preserved.
- This special cap-and-trade program is based on the framework
established in the WRAP process.
- This special cap can also be triggered by 2013 if States
determine there is sufficient evidence that the target will
not be met by 2018.
The West Faces Unique Challenges
- Environmental effects of power plant emissions - including visibility
impairment and acid deposition - are broadly distributed
- Increasing ground-level ozone concentrations in national parks
- Particle-related haze in national parks and wilderness areas
- Nitrogen deposition in high elevation ecosystems (e.g., Colorado
Front Range)
- Brown clouds in major cities
- Few western non-attainment areas are due to stationary source
emissions
![The West Faces Unique Challenges](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/ndflowers.gif)
As the West Grows, Clear Skies Protects Human Health and the
Environment
The
West Will Continue to Grow...
- Population is projected to grow more than 20% from current
levels by 2020
- Electricity demand is expected to grow more than the national
average
- More than 10% over national average in the Pacific
States
- More than 30% over national average in the Mountain
States
...While
the Environment Is Protected
- Clear Skies would protect air quality by lowering or halting
increases in air emissions throughout the West from today's
levels:
- Prevent degradation of visibility in parks.
- Help counties remain in attainment with health-based
air quality standards, reducing the burden on state
and local governments.
- Ensure nitrogen deposition does not increase and reduce
mercury deposition
Emissions in Colorado under Clear Skies
Emissions in Colorado (2020) would be significantly reduced
from 2000 levels:
- 19% reduction in SO2 emissions
- 22% reduction in NOx emissions
- 46% reduction in mercury emissions
|
Emissions: Current (2000) and Existing Clean Air Act Regulations (base case*) vs. Clear Skies in Colorado in 2010 and 2020
Note:
The base case using IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call,
NSR settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC,
NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in 2007 or
any other potential future regulations to implement the current
ambient air quality standards or other parts of the Clean
Air Act. Base case emissions in 2020 will likely be lower
due to state and federal regulatory actions that have not
yet been promulgated.
SO2 and NOx Emissions Reductions under Clear Skies
![Projected SOx Emissions from Power Plants with the Base Case and Clear Skies (2020)- West](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/ndpso2gif.gif)
![Projected NOx Emissions from Power Plants with the Base Case and Clear Skies (2020)- West](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/ndpnox.gif)
Note:
The base case using IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call,
NSR settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO,
NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in
2007 or any other potential future regulations to implement
the current ambient air quality standards or other parts
of the Clean Air Act. Base case emissions in 2020 will likely
be lower due to state and federal regulatory actions that
have not yet been promulgated. Emissions projected for new
units are not reflected.
Clear Skies Health and Air Quality Benefits in the West
By 2020, the West would receive
approximately $8.6 billion in annual health benefits from reductions
in fine particle and ozone concentrations alone due to Clear
Skies.(see note 1) |
Improve Public Health
- Reduced ozone and fine particle exposure by 2020 would
result in public health benefits of:
- approximately 1,100 fewer premature deaths each year
(see note 1)
- approximately 800 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis
each year
- approximately 1,800 fewer non-fatal heart attacks
each year
- approximately 2,500 fewer hospital and emergency room
visits each year
- Approximately 150,000 fewer days workers are out sick
due to respiratory symptoms each year
- approximately 19,000 fewer school absences each year
- Reduced mercury emissions would reduce exposure to mercury
through consumption of contaminated fish, resulting in additional,
unquantified benefits to those who eat fish from lakes and
streams in the West.
Help Maintain Health-Based Air Quality Standards (see
note 2)
- All counties in Colorado are currently expected to meet
the 8-hour ozone and fine particle standards.
- Clear Skies would reduce concentrations of fine particles
beyond expectations from the base case throughout Colorado,
providing additional benefits to public health.
Clear Skies Would Provide Important Environmental Benefits
in the West
Clear Skies would produce significant visibility benefits
in highly visited national parks and wilderness areas in the
West.
- Quantifiable visibility benefits in just 5 parks (Grand
Canyon, Rocky Mountain, Zion, Bryce Canyon, and Mesa Verde
National Parks) total over $300 million.
- Visibility benefits in the Grand Canyon alone are estimated
to be $100 million annually by 2020.
- Visibility improvements are also projected to improve
tourism.
- In comparison to existing programs, nitrogen deposition
would decrease by 5-20% in the inter mountain West, and
in some areas, such as the Four Corners region, by up to
35%. Sulfur and mercury deposition would not increase despite
growth in electricity demand.
Click here for a larger image
Electricity Generation in Colorado under Clear
Skies
Current and Projected Generation by Fuel Type in Colorado
under Clear Skies (GWh)
![Current and Projected Generation by Fuel Type in Colorado under Clear Skies (GWh)](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/copgeneration.gif)
- Colorado's electricity growth is projected to be
met by increases in gas-fired and coal-fired generation.
Clear Skies does not significantly alter this projection.
- Electricity from coal-fired generation will
increase by 10% from 1999 to 2020.
|
Current and Projected Coal Production for Electricity Generation
![Current and Projected Coal Production for Electricity Generation](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/ndcgeneration.gif)
- Colorado's sources are projected to reduce their
emissions through the installation of emission controls,
rather than through a switch from coal to natural
gas.
- In 2010 and 2020, 63% of Colorado's coal-fired
generation is projected to come from units with
advanced SO2 and/or NOx control equipment that
also substantially reduce mercury emissions.
- No coal-fired units in Colorado are projected
to be removed from operation as a result of Clear
Skies.
|
Emission Controls in Colorado under Clear Skies
- Under Clear Skies by 2020...
- 22% of coal-fired capacity would install SCR
- None would install scrubbers
|
- The major generation companies in Colorado include:
- Public Service Company of Colorado
- Colorado Springs Utilities
- Total coal-fired capacity in Colorado is projected
to be 4,800 MW in 2010.
|
Units in Colorado Projected to Be Retrofitted Due to Clear
Skies by 2020
Plant Name |
Unit ID |
Technology |
CHEROKEE
|
1 |
SCR* |
CHEROKEE
|
2 |
SCR* |
CRAIG |
C1 |
SCR* |
CRAIG |
C2 |
SCR* |
* Retrofit was installed under Clear Skies
by 2010
Note: Retrofits and total coal-fired
capacity apply to coal units greater than 25 MW.
Electricity Prices in Colorado under Clear
Skies
- With or without Clear Skies, retail prices in the North
American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) WECC region (the
electricity supply region that contains Colorado) are projected
to increase between 2005 and 2020.
-
With Clear Skies, retail prices are projected
to be approximately 0.6 - 2.6% higher between 2005 and 2020
than in the absence of the legislation.
|
![NERC](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/vtnerc.gif)
![Projected Retail Electricity Prices in Colorado under the Base Case and Clear Skies (2005-2020)](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/coprojretail.gif)
![Projected National Retail Electricity Prices and Prices in Colorado under Clear Skies (2005-2020)](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/coprojnational.gif)
In 2000, the average retail electricity price in Colorado
was approximately 6.0 cents/kWh, which was below the
average national retail price of approximately 6.7 cents/kWh.
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Note: The base case using IPM includes Title IV, the NOx
SIP Call, NSR settlements, and state-specific caps in CT,
MA, MO, NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury MACT
in 2007 or any other potential future regulations to implement
the current air quality standards or other parts of the Clean
Air Act. Base case emissions in 2020 will likely be lower
due to state and federal regulatory actions that have not
yet been promulgated. Costs and Benefits in Colorado under Clear
Skies
Benefits Outweigh the Costs
Clear Skies....
Guarantees significant emissions reductions - beginning
years before full implementation
Uses a proven and flexible market-based approach with
incentives for innovation
Increases certainty across the board for industry,
regulators, and consumers
|
-
In Colorado, Clear Skies is projected
to cost approximately $57 million annually by 2020, and
$1.2 billion throughout the West, while providing health
and visibility benefits totaling approximately $350 million
annually in Colorado and $9.5 billion annually regionally.
-
The increases in production costs under
Clear Skies represent only a small percentage of total
retail electricity sales revenue in Colorado
-
Retail electricity sales revenue
in Colorado was over $2.4 billion in 1999
-
Adjusting these sales revenues by
the same growth rate used for the modeling of costs
would result in revenues of over $4 billion annually
in 2020
- Nationwide, the projected annual costs of Clear Skies
(in $1999) are $4.3 billion in 2010 and $6.3 billion in 2020;
the nationwide benefits of Clear Skies are expected to be
over $113 billion annually by 2020
- An alternate estimate projects annual health benefits
totaling $23 billion
Note: Costs include
capital costs, fuel, and other operation and maintenance costs
(both fixed and variable) associated with the achievement
of the emissions caps in the legislation (for example, the
installation and operation of pollution controls). These state-level
production costs are estimates; they do not account for the
costs associated with the transfer of electricity across regions,
nor the costs or savings that could be associated with allowance
movement between sources.
Notes on EPA's Analysis
-
The information presented in this analysis
reflects EPA's modeling of the Clear Skies Act of 2003.
- EPA has updated this information to reflect modifications:
- Changes included in the Clear Skies Act of 2003.
- Revisions to the Base Case to reflect newly
promulgated rules at the state and federal level
since the initial analysis was undertaken.
- The Clear Skies modeling results presented include
the safety valve feature
-
This analysis compares new programs to
a Base Case (Existing Control Programs), which is typical
when calculating costs and benefits of Agency rule makings.
- The Base Case reflects implementation of current
control programs only:
- Does not include yet-to-be developed regulations
such as those to implement the National Ambient
Air Quality Standards.
- The EPA Base Case for power sector modeling includes:
- Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR settlements,
and state-specific caps in Connecticut, Massachusetts,
Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Texas,
and Wisconsin finalized before March 2003.
- For air quality modeling, the Base Case also includes
federal and state control programs, as well as the
Tier II, Heavy Duty Diesel, and Non-Road Diesel rules.
![Clear Skies](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20090305034513im_/http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/images/epaclearskies.gif)
1. An alternative
methodology for calculating health-related benefits projects
approximately 600 premature deaths prevented and $1.6 billion
in health benefits each year in the West by 2020.
2. Based on
1999-2001 data for counties with monitors that have three
years of complete data.
State information based on EPA's modeling of the
Clear Skies Act of 2002 is presented here for archival
reasons.
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