All specified years are fiscal years (October 1 through September 30).
2008 Summary: Economic Activity and Air Travel
U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 1.9 percent world GDP was up 2.3 percent.
Domestic mainline yields increased 5.2 percent while international yields increased 7.4 percent and are at an all-time high. In real terms (adjusted for inflation), domestic yields increased 0.7 percent and international yields increased 2.8 percent.
Domestic enplanements on mainline and regional air carriers fell from 690.1 million in 2007 to 679.6 million (-1.5 percent) in 2008. Domestic mainline carrier enplanements dropped 2.2 percent while domestic regional carrier enplanements rose 0.7 percent. International enplanements on mainline and regional air carriers increased from 75.3 million in 2007 to 77.8 million (3.3 percent increase) in 2008. Mainline carrier international enplanements were up 3.4 percent while regional enplanements rose 0.7 percent.
U.S. commercial air carriers (including passenger and cargo) reported operating losses of $2.0 billion in 2008, compared to an operating profit of $10.1 billion in 2007. Operating revenues increased 8.8 percent in 2008, while operating expenses increased 16.9 percent.
In 2008 total landings and takeoffs at combined Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and contract towers were down 4.3 percent from 2007. Air carrier activity increased by 1.1 percent while commuter/air taxi activity decreased by 5.9 percent. General aviation activity dropped 5.6 percent while military aircraft activity fell 8.4 percent.
Economic Assumptions for FAA Forecasts
U.S. Real GDP is forecast to increase from $11.7 trillion in 2008 to $18.3 trillion in 2025, an average annual rate of 2.7 percent. World GDP is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace of 3.0 percent over the same 17-year period, from $50.1 trillion to $82.8 trillion.
GDP by World Region (Average Annual Percent Growth)
World Region
Fiscal Year
Calendar Year
2008
2009
2010
2010-25
2008
2009
2010
2010-25
U.S
1.9
(1.4)
2.4
3.0
1.3
(1.2)
3.2
3.0
World
na
na
na
na
2.3
(0.7)
2.4
3.3
Canada
na
na
na
na
0.7
(1.5)
2.5
2.6
Europe/Afr/ME
na
na
na
na
1.7
(1.3)
0.8
2.5
Latin America
na
na
na
na
3.9
0.7
3.5
3.9
Asia/Pacific
na
na
na
na
3.5
1.4
4.6
4.6
Inflation is projected to decrease 0.4 percent in 2009 and then remain moderate over the remaining 16 years of the forecast period, averaging 2.0 percent annually.
Aviation Activity Forecasts
Mainline Air Carrier and Regionals
Total mainline air carrier and regional enplanements are forecast to increase from 757.4 million in 2008 to 1.1 billion in 2025, an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. Domestic enplanements are projected to decrease 7.8 percent in 2009 and then grow an average of 2.7 percent per year during the remaining 16-year forecast period. International enplanements are forecast to decrease 2.5 percent in 2009 and then average 4.3 percent per year for the rest of the forecast period. Total system enplanements are expected to reach one billion in 2021.
Mainline Air Carriers
U.S. mainline carrier domestic enplanements are forecast to decrease 8.8 percent in 2009. For the remaining 16 years of the forecast period, enplanements grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent, reaching 690.2 million in 2025.
U.S. mainline carrier international enplanements are forecast to decrease 2.4 percent in 2009, and then grow an average of 4.3 percent per year thereafter, reaching 142.2 million in 2025. The fastest growing region is Latin America at 4.2 percent per year, followed by Asia/Pacific (3.9 percent per year), and the Atlantic (3.5 percent per year).
U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Enplanements by World Region (Average Annual Percent Growth)
World Region
Fiscal Year
2008
2009
2010
2010-25
Domestic
(2.2)
(8.8)
1.9
2.4
International
3.4
(2.4)
2.4
4.4
Atlantic
8.2
(2.0)
4.5
3.8
Latin America
2.7
(1.2)
1.8
4.7
Asia/Pacific
(3.2)
(6.3)
(0.3)
4.9
System
(1.5)
(8.0)
1.9
2.7
Total passengers to/from the United States (U.S. and foreign flag carriers) are projected to decrease 0.9 percent in 2009. The average annual rate of growth between 2008 and 2025 is 4.2 percent, with passengers increasing from 153.9 million to 310.0 million. The fastest growing region is Asia/Pacific at 5.2 percent per year, followed by Latin America (4.3 percent per year), Atlantic (4.0 percent per year) and Canadian Transborder (3.2 percent per year).
U.S. Mainline & Foreign Flag Air Carriers: Passengers by World Region (Average Annual Percent Growth)
World Region
Calendar Year
2008
2009
2010
2010-25
Total U.S./Foreign Flag
2.8
(0.9)
4.2
4.6
Atlantic
7.0
(1.1)
3.5
4.4
Latin America
1.4
(0.7)
4.6
4.6
Asia/Pacific
(1.7)
(0.2)
5.7
5.5
Canadian Transborder
0.7
(1.5)
3.6
3.4
Domestic mainline passenger real yield (adjusted for inflation) is forecast to decrease from 13.09 cents in 2008 to 12.91 cents in 2009 (down 1.4 percent). Thereafter, domestic mainline carrier real yield declines at an average rate of 1.2 percent dropping to 10.61 cents in 2025. International mainline real yield is forecast to decline from 13.37 cents in 2008 to 13.25 cents in 2009. Thereafter, international real yield declines at a rate of 1.0 percent annually, falling to 11.34 cents by 2025.
U.S. Mainline Air Carriers: Real Yield (Average Annual Percent Growth)
Region
Fiscal Year
2008
2009
2010
2010-25
Domestic
0.7
(1.4)
(1.0)
(1.2)
International
2.8
(0.9)
(0.8)
(1.0)
U.S. mainline air carrier passenger jet fleet increases from 3,743 aircraft in 2008 to 5,223 aircraft in 2025, an average annual increase of 2.0 percent. The fleet is projected to shrink by 10.1 percent in 2009 (378 aircraft), with most of the decrease attributed to the grounding of less fuel-efficient aircraft during a period of reduced demand.
Regional Carriers
Regional carrier enplanements are forecast to decrease 4.5 percent to 153.5 million in 2009, and grow 3.5 percent a year thereafter, reaching 267.6 million in 2025.
U.S. Regional Air Carrier Enplanements (Average Annual Percent Growth)
Region
Fiscal Year
2008
2009
2010
2010-25
Domestic
0.7
(4.5)
2.4
3.6
International
0.7
(4.5)
2.4
3.6
The regional carrier passenger aircraft fleet increases from 2,582 aircraft in 2008 to 3,033 aircraft in 2025, an average annual increase of 1.0 percent. The fleet is projected to shrink by 9.8 percent in 2009 (253 aircraft).
Regional jets increase from 1,655 aircraft in 2008 to 2,249 aircraft in 2025, an annual increase of 1.8 percent. All of the increase is attributed to jet aircraft in the 70-90-seat category.
Cargo
Total air cargo Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) (freight/express and mail) increase from 38.9 billion in 2008 to 78.6 billion in 2025 — up an average of 4.2 percent a year; domestic RTMs increase 1.8 percent a year; international RTMs increase 5.3 percent a year.
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers: Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles (Average Annual Percent)
Region
Fiscal Year
2008
2009
2010
2010-25
Domestic
(9.5)
(8.3)
2.5
2.4
International
1.7
(7.2)
5.0
6.2
Total
(2.8)
(7.6)
4.1
5.1
The cargo fleet increases from 949 aircraft in 2008 to 1,584 aircraft in 2025, an average increase of 3.1 percent a year.
General Aviation
The general aviation fleet increases from 234,015 aircraft in 2008 to 275,230 in 2025, growing 1.0 percent a year.
Fixed-wing turbojets grow at a rate of 4.8 percent per year, and piston rotorcraft at a rate of 3.9 percent per year.
General aviation hours flown is forecast to increase from 27.8 million in 2008 to 37.8 million in 2025, an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent a year.
The hours flown by the turboprop/turbojet fleet is forecast to increase from 6.6 million hours in 2008 to 12.8 million in 2025, an average annual growth rate of 3.9 percent.
FAA Workload Forecasts
Operations at Airports with FAA Traffic Control and Contract Tower Service
Total operations are forecast to decrease 5.7 percent to 55.2M in 2009, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 69.6 million in 2025. The average annual growth rate for the entire 17-year forecast period is 1.0 percent.
Commercial operations decrease 5.7 percent in 2009, and grow at a rate of 2.1 percent thereafter, reaching 32.5 million in 2025.
General aviation operations decrease 6.2 percent in 2009, and grow at a rate of 1.0 percent thereafter, totaling 34.6 million in 2025.
Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Operations
TRACON operations are forecast to decrease 4.3 percent to 41.7 million in 2009, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 53.4 million in 2025. The average annual growth rate for the entire 17-year forecast period is 1.2 percent.
Commercial TRACON operations decrease 5.3 percent in 2009, and grow at a rate of 1.8 percent thereafter, reaching 32.3 million in 2025.
General aviation TRACON operations decrease 3.4 percent in 2009, and grow at a rate of 1.3 percent thereafter, totaling 18.7 million in 2025.
Aircraft Handled at Air Route Traffic Control Centers
Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) aircraft handled at FAA air route traffic control centers are forecast to decrease to 42.6 million (6.0% decrease) in 2009 and then grow 2.3 percent a year over the remaining 16 years of the forecast period, reaching 61.8 million in 2025.
Commercial IFR aircraft handled decrease from 34.0 million in 2008 to 31.7 million in 2009 (6.7 percent decrease). Thereafter commercial IFR aircraft handled grow at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent, reaching 48.6 million in 2025.
General aviation IFR aircraft handled decrease 5.5 percent during 2009. Thereafter, general aviation IFR aircraft handled grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, reaching 9.5 million in 2025.
